Modelling Magma Movement: linking indirect observations with dynamic processes

In this fellowship I will deliver the next generation of magma-filled fracture models, by building on my track record of developing novel methodologies and applying a multidisciplinary approach to instigate a step change in eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard assessment. The communication revolution requires rapid and reliable decision making in the lead up to and during volcanic crises, but existing models of magma sub-surface flow are insufficient to allow this. We need to identify the conditions under which different magma flow regimes and host-rock deformation modes dominate, because these directly affect the eruption potential of underground magma. We need to recognise how magma ascent pathways and eruption potential are influenced by petrological characteristics, 3D geometry and heat transfer. We need to ground-truth our theoretical, physical and chemical understanding in exposed ancient volcanic plumbing systems. Finally, we need to synthesise insight from analogue, mathematical and field experiments and enable these combined models to be deployed to improve the accuracy and reliability of volcanic eruption forecasts.

I will use my multidisciplinary expertise in volcanic plumbing systems and work closely with Project Partners from academia and government organisations to integrate analogue modelling, mathematical modelling, geophysical observations and geological analyses of volcanic systems to build the next generation of dyke and sill models. I will use novel imaging techniques combined with analogue modelling to couple the dynamics of magma intrusion and host-rock deformation with the associated surface distortions. I will develop cutting-edge mathematical models to explore the thermal, petrological and geometric behaviour of magma intrusions, considering magma flow dynamics and host-rock deformation, from propagation to solidification. I will perform state-of-the-art field experiments on two complementary and distinct suites of intrusions and use laboratory techniques to understand how the magma flow and host rock deformation occurred. I will compare field, analogue and mathematical model insights and collaborate with volcano and space observatories to test and develop them so they can be integrated into geohazard assessment systems. These models will form part of the international infrastructure of volcanic hazard assessment used to significantly minimise the human and economic cost of volcanic eruptions.

I will focus the potential impact of my fellowship on four themes.

A) Volcanic Hazards
Aiming to provide mathematical models to aid the interpretation of surface and sub-surface rock deformation signals and improve hazard assessments at volcanoes. This will be achieved through the involvement of key Project Partners at major volcano observatories: Geophysicist Dr. Mike Poland (USGS) is Scientist-in-Charge of the USGS Yellowstone Volcano Observatory in the United States, and Dr. Francesca Bianco (INGV) is Director of Vesuvius Observatory in Italy. They have significant influence on national and international policy development and implementation related to volcanic hazard management and mitigation.

B) Earth Imaging
Aiming to provide evidence to earth observation organisations that will improve the assessment of satellite imaging techniques and influence the development of future sensors and satellite missions for the study of volcanological phenomena. To implement this, I will work closely with Project Partner Dr. Marco Bagnardi, from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who is an expert in geodesy. I will use my models to quantify the uncertainties needed for Bagnardi's Bayesian statistics approach for the inversion of geophysical datasets related to volcano deformation. Through my work and Bagnardi's NASA Fellowship we have the potential influence the development of future NASA sensors and satellite missions.

C) Economic Geology
Aiming to provide evidence to industry partners which demonstrates how volcanic plumbing system dynamics affect the economic potential of industry projects. I am an Expert Panel member of the Horizon 2020 HiTechAlkCarb Project on Rare Earth Elements and retain close association with Prof. Steve Sparks (PhD supervisor) who co-leads the Porphyry Copper Deposit project associated with BHP Billiton at the University of Bristol. These contacts mean I can reach my economic geology stakeholders, who are representatives from the geothermal energy and economic exploration industries.

D) Science Education and Outreach
Aiming to provide educational materials to encourage the engagement of school children in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) subjects. I will do this by engaging key science education and outreach stakeholders, including the general public, school children and their teachers.

I will engage my various stakeholders in 5 ways:
1) Organising a multidisciplinary workshop to bring together academics, government representatives, staff from volcano observatories and industry.
2) Holding project meetings to bring together Liverpool earth scientists and social scientists working in volcanology.
3) Developing strong partnerships and working closely with volcano observatories (USGS, INGV) to model their data and maximise the models' relevance.
4) Continuing to contribute to the Liverpool CPD course for A Level Geology teachers, and continue regular engagement with outreach efforts (school visits and television/radio appearances).
5) Creating an online profile (project website, social media and YouTube channel), generating online educational materials for GeoHub Liverpool, and producing a project video.

Indicators of progress towards impact will be five-fold:
1) Uptake of my models to form part of the international infrastructure of volcanic hazard assessment, used to significantly minimise the human and economic cost of volcanic eruptions.
2) Uptake of the new inversion modelling methodologies I will develop for earth imaging of volcanoes.
3) The submission of large grant applications with physical and social scientists, engineers, project partners and industry partners.
4) Financial investment from industry to fund my research activities.
5) Positive engagement with social media and outreach activities, measured by social media interactions, google analytics, and surveys during outreach events.