Harnessing mega-constellations to probe space weather globally

Lead Research Organisation: Imperial College London
Department Name: Physics

Abstract

The changing conditions in near-Earth space cause space weather. This poses a risk to our everyday lives through the technology we rely upon. Space weather impacts on crucial power, communications, navigation, and transport systems. Monitoring and forecasting it is thus vital.

The processes that drive space weather globally are not well understood. The interplay between Earth's magnetic field and charged particles blowing from the Sun forms a protective shield in space, known as the magnetosphere. Space weather occurs because this shield is neither perfect nor static. Energy penetrates our magnetosphere and gets distributed to different regions inside it. But the global response is greater than the sum of its parts. Local processes alone cannot explain the overall response. Instead, space weather phenomena appear to emerge from the complex system itself. To better understand what causes space weather requires a global approach.

Large groups of satellites working together, known as constellations, are required. Achieving this through traditional space missions is too expensive. Satellite operators are now launching commercial mega-constellations for communications services. These consist of hundreds to thousands of satellites in low Earth orbit. This orbit is at the interface between the top of our atmosphere and the magnetosphere. How space weather is mediated between these regions is still an open question. So mega-constellations are perfectly placed for space weather monitoring.
The satellites use measurements of Earth's magnetic field to orient themselves. But these instruments can detect the signatures of space weather also. This fellowship will thus harness mega-constellations as a tool for monitoring space weather.

Mega-constellations provide an unprecedented number of globally distributed observation points in space. I will develop new processing tools to use this data. These will extract and resolve the ever-changing electrical currents mediating space weather. Computer simulations will test the limits of what is achievable. These results will inform requirements on future mega-constellation designs for space weather monitoring. Machine learning will also combat the challenges of analysing "big data" in space. I will adapt methods developed from other fields for use in space weather science. These will reduce the amount of data to analyse and identify patterns present. They will have broad applications across current and upcoming missions, facilities, and simulations.

I have partnered with a mega-constellation operator to put these methods into practice. This will establish the current space weather capabilities of mega-constellations. I will derive a new global activity index from this data. This will eliminate the errors and biases in those currently used. A pipeline producing this index in real-time will yield new space weather warnings.

Dedicated campaigns will also further scientific research into what drives space weather. These coincide with the upcoming increase in solar activity. The campaigns will focus on waves that emerge during intense space weather events. Like a musical instrument, these waves are processed and guided by their environment. This forms a complex orchestra that encompasses our planet. But we do not know the global nature of this symphony and its importance in space weather. The mega-constellation will at last reveal the structure of the different waves. I will thus determine their effects on space radiation, atmospheric heating, and currents in the ground. This will advance our understanding of how these waves contribute to space weather.

This fellowship will revolutionise space weather monitoring by harnessing mega-constellations. It will yield a step-change in capability. Global data will unveil how space weather works, improving our ability to predict it. The fellowship will thus boost our ability to mitigate this threat to society.

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