Modelling Magma Movement: linking indirect observations with dynamic processes

In this renewal I will build on the progress made in the first phase of the fellowship to deliver the next generation of magma-filled fracture models, by building on my track record of developing novel methodologies and applying a multidisciplinary approach to instigate a step change in eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard assessment. The communication revolution requires rapid and reliable decision making in the lead up to and during volcanic crises, however existing models of magma sub-surface flow remain insufficient to allow this, as evidenced by recent eruptions in La Palma, New Zealand and currently in Iceland. We need to identify the conditions under which different magma flow regimes and host-rock deformation modes dominate, because these directly affect the eruption potential of underground magma. We need to recognise how magma ascent pathways and eruption potential are influenced by petrological characteristics, 3D geometry and heat transfer. We need to ground-truth our theoretical, physical and chemical understanding in exposed ancient volcanic plumbing systems. Finally, we need to synthesise insight from analogue, mathematical and field experiments and enable these combined models to be deployed to improve the accuracy and reliability of volcanic eruption forecasts.

I will continue to use my multidisciplinary expertise in volcanic plumbing systems and work closely with my existing and new Project Partners from academia and government organisations to integrate analogue modelling, mathematical modelling, geophysical observations and geological analyses of volcanic systems to build the next generation of dyke and sill models. I will use the state-of-the-art Medusa Laboratory I have built in Part One of the fellowship to couple the dynamics of magma intrusion and host-rock deformation with the associated surface distortions by creating novel 3D imaging techniques combined with analogue modelling. I will further develop my cutting-edge mathematical models to explore the thermal, petrological and geometric behaviour of magma intrusions, considering magma flow dynamics and host-rock deformation, from propagation to solidification. I will use laboratory techniques on rock samples already collected in my field experiments to understand how the magma flow and host rock deformation occurred. I will compare field, analogue and mathematical model insights and collaborate with volcano observatories to test and develop them so they can be integrated into geohazard assessment systems. These models will form part of the international infrastructure of volcanic hazard assessment used to significantly minimise the human and economic cost of volcanic eruptions.