Integrating Ancient DNA and Ecological Modelling to Quantify the Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity
Lead Research Organisation:
Royal Holloway University of London
Department Name: Biological Sciences
Abstract
There is currently widespread concern for the survival of many mammal species in Europe. This concern is to a large extent derived from model-based predictions on how future climate change will affect European biodiversity. Current species distribution models suggest that climate change will cause habitats to shift or contract northwards, and will result in high rates of extinction for the coming 100 years. However, such predictions are controversial, due largely to the uncertainties in how species respond to changes in habitat availability. Central to this problem is the habitat tracking hypothesis, which states that populations will respond to changes in habitat availability by altering their distributions accordingly. Here, we propose a novel and multi-disciplinary approach to investigate the underlying mechanisms that determine the probability and extent of climate-induced habitat tracking in European mammals. We will combine recently developed ancient DNA approaches with species distribution models to construct a detailed investigation of habitat tracking in nine model species in real time through the last 40,000 years. This will allow us to establish the tempo and mode of population response to climate change, as well as to evaluate, adjust and employ existing forecasting models to more accurately predict future responses.
People |
ORCID iD |
Ian Barnes (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Brace S
(2012)
Serial population extinctions in a small mammal indicate Late Pleistocene ecosystem instability.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Brace S
(2016)
The colonization history of British water vole (Arvicola amphibius (Linnaeus, 1758)): origins and development of the Celtic fringe.
in Proceedings. Biological sciences
Edwards CJ
(2011)
Ancient hybridization and an Irish origin for the modern polar bear matriline.
in Current biology : CB
Meiri M
(2014)
Faunal record identifies Bering isthmus conditions as constraint to end-Pleistocene migration to the New World.
in Proceedings. Biological sciences
Meiri M
(2020)
Population dynamics and range shifts of moose ( Alces alces ) during the Late Quaternary
in Journal of Biogeography
Meiri M
(2017)
Subspecies dynamics in space and time: A study of the red deer complex using ancient and modern DNA and morphology
in Journal of Biogeography
Meiri M
(2013)
Late-glacial recolonization and phylogeography of European red deer (Cervus elaphus L.).
in Molecular ecology
Nyström V
(2012)
Microsatellite genotyping reveals end-Pleistocene decline in mammoth autosomal genetic variation.
in Molecular ecology
Description | Projected changes in global temperatures have led to widespread concern about the survival of many mammal species in Europe, with current model-based forecasts predicting high rates of extinction over the next 100 years. However, such predictions are controversial due to uncertainties in how species respond to changes in habitat availability. Central to this problem is whether populations will respond to environmental change by chasing new habitat; the alternative, however, is that populations are unable to move to the north when temperatures increase, or vice versa when it gets colder, and that these populations instead become extinct. One way to address this question is to investigate what happened during the last Ice Age, when dramatic changes in temperatures resulted in large-scale changes in the distribution of many species. The CLIMIGRATE project has investigated this by using ancient DNA analyses on fossil material from the last 40,000 years to examine the extent that these populations were able to move in concert with climate change. The results from these analyses provide us not only with a better understanding of how the European fauna was established, but could improve our predictions of how global warming will affect European mammals over the coming 100 years. |
Exploitation Route | A future goal is to investigate the role of museum collections in climate change research, and we are working with the museums community to develop this. |
Sectors | Education,Environment,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections |
Description | Chiefly by academics, through publications, and through public presentation as a means of linking museum collections to climate change. |
First Year Of Impact | 2011 |
Sector | Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections |
Impact Types | Societal |