HydrOlogical cYcle Understanding vIa Process-bAsed GlObal Detection, Attribution and prediction (Horyuji PAGODA)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Edinburgh
Department Name: Sch of Geosciences
Abstract
See lead document
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| Gabriele Hegerl (Principal Investigator) | |
| Simon Tett (Co-Investigator) |
Publications
Balan Sarojini B
(2012)
Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean
in Geophysical Research Letters
Brunner L
(2017)
Connecting Atmospheric Blocking to European Temperature Extremes in Spring
in Journal of Climate
Hegerl G
(2013)
Causes of Robust Seasonal Land Precipitation Changes*
in Journal of Climate
Hegerl G
(2015)
Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Iles C
(2013)
The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Iles C
(2014)
The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models
in Environmental Research Letters
Iles CE
(2015)
Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions.
in Nature geoscience
Noake K
(2012)
Changes in seasonal land precipitation during the latter twentieth-century SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGE
in Geophysical Research Letters
Polson D
(2017)
Strengthening contrast between precipitation in tropical wet and dry regions PRECIPITATION IN WET AND DRY REGIONS
in Geophysical Research Letters
Polson D
(2014)
Decreased monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols
in Geophysical Research Letters
| Description | The paradigm of wet regions getting wetter, dry regions getting dryer due to human influences on climate, particularly, the increase in greenhouse gases is being investigated. We found that seasonal land precipitation changes vary quite a bit with observational dataset used, but significant climate changes can be identified in zonal patterns in some seasons. The changes approximately strengthen climatological rainfall differences. This work was included in Chapter 10 of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Changes of precipitation over both land and ocean in climatological wet and dry regions were found to be consistent with expectations due to greenhouse gas warming of the atmosphere, with the wet regions becoming wetter and dry regions becoming drier. By analysing changes in the wettest and driest regions, we were able to make use of the relativity short satellite records to show that human activity has caused changes to precipitation over the ocean. While greenhouse gas warming will cause precipitation to increase globally, aerosols tend to have the opposite affect. These counteracting influences, has made it difficult to distinguish the influence of aerosols on precipitation from greenhouse gases as many regions, the influence of greenhouse gases in greater. We analysed changes in monsoon precipitation and were able to show that anthropogenic aerosols caused a monsoon precipitation to decrease over the latter half of the 20th century. Changes in the global water cycle are still uncertain compared to temperature due to shorter observational datasets and sparse coverage in many regions. A workshop bringing together experts on observational records of the water cycle was organised to discuss the long-term observed changes. The outcome of this workshop was a research paper that compares changes in observations of different water cycle variables, identifying where observations show consistent changes and making a series of recommendations to maintain and improve the observational record of the changing water cycle. |
| Exploitation Route | Our findings are important for research on impacts of climate change, predictions of future changes in precipitation and research on predicting and understanding changes in drought and flooding and results from this grant were included in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The work has also highlighted were observational uncertainty has limited our understanding of changes in the global water cycle. An outcome of a workshop to discuss this uncertainty is a series of recommendations to maintain and improve the observational record of the changing water cycle. |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice,Transport |
| Description | Results from this grant have been cited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC) 5th AR. A publication, led by Hegerl, is in press with the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society that gives recommendations as to how the observational network needs to be strengthened to better observe changes in the watercycle, an impact that extends to outside science. Impacts within the Scientific community include further a session at the American Geophysical Union meeting, SF in Dec 2013 and publications. Several of the recent publications were picked up by media. The impact plan included engagement with the Scottish curriculum for excellence. This happened through engagement of the PDRA with the centre providing the input, focusing on what we know about why climate changed in the last thousand years. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
| Sector | Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Lead Author and member of Synthesis report writing team. |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Impact | PI was involved in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s fifth Assessment report, as a Lead Author and in the Synthesis report, released 2015, as a writing team member. These reports arguably form the basis of the Paris Agreement on climate change, and authors are chosen for their scientific contributions to the area they are chosen for. Hence this relates directly to my publications under these grants. |
| URL | http://www.ipcc.ch |
| Description | Climate Change: Science and Society |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Climate Change: Science and Society: This was a half day conference under the auspices of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. I was a coorganizer and speaker see website report. It was well attended and well received and communicated the state of climate science, impact and mitigation knowledge on climate change to the wider public |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
| URL | http://www.rse.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Climate-Change-Science-and-Society.pdf |