Synchrony in metapopulations at multiple time scales: theory, experiments, and field data
Lead Research Organisation:
Imperial College London
Department Name: Life Sciences
Abstract
Research context: Populations of the same species in locations hundreds of kilometers apart often fluctuate in unison or partly in unison, a phenomenon called synchrony. For instance, British aphid species, of economic importance because they are a major agricultural pest, outbreak 80% in synchrony over short distances and 50% in synchrony over distances of 200km, a huge distance for most aphid species. In fact, synchrony is widespread, and has been detected in birds, lemmings, fish such as cod, human pathogens such as measles, amphibians, and numerous other species. Many species exhibiting synchrony are of major conservation, economic, or health importance. Population synchrony has practical importance for several reasons. For instance, synchronized pest or disease populations require a coordinated response. An endangered species whose populations are synchronized is in accentuated danger of final extinction because populations are simultaneously low and might all go extinct by chance at once. An exploited synchronized species is periodically unavailable or less available across a wide area in many markets. Synchrony has been measured with methods that characterize the degree of synchrony between two populations only by a single number from 1 (perfect synchrony) down to -1 (perfect asynchrony). This approach is useful but limited: our results show synchrony is too complex to be captured with one number. Synchrony between two populations can occur mainly on short time scales, with little to no synchrony on long time scales; or on long time scales, with little or no synchrony on short time scales; or on any range of time scales. Synchrony between environmental variables in different locations has the same complexity. For instance, temperatures in London and Glasgow rise and fall largely together on annual time scales (seasonal variation) and multi-annual time scales (the North Atlantic Oscillation), but short-time-scale (day-to-day) temperature variation in London may resemble that in Glasgow much less. Different time scales of synchrony have different ecological and extinction-risk implications, and may have different implications for optimal control strategies for pests. In addition, new and important preliminary results show that the time-scale-specific structure of environmental synchrony is changing as part of climate change, and likely affects population synchrony, and thereby extinction risk. Research aims: We will use large spatio-temporal databases, new theory, and new lab experiments to obtain a broad time-scale-specific description of environmental and population synchrony, and to assess the implications of observed patterns for climate change, extinction risks, and inference of what mechanisms cause synchrony in the field. Applications: We will provide information about a newly observed and previously unrecognized aspect of climate change and a global assessment of its overarching importance for conservation and pest management applications and for ecological understanding.
Publications
Adams G
(2016)
Community management indicators can conflate divergent phenomena: two challenges and a decomposition-based solution
in Journal of Applied Ecology
Adams GL
(2013)
Diatoms can be an important exception to temperature-size rules at species and community levels of organization.
in Global change biology
Bell JR
(2012)
Putting the brakes on a cycle: bottom-up effects damp cycle amplitude.
in Ecology letters
Bunnefeld N
(2011)
Impact of unintentional selective harvesting on the population dynamics of red grouse.
in The Journal of animal ecology
Defriez EJ
(2016)
Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea.
in Global change biology
Ewers RM
(2013)
Using landscape history to predict biodiversity patterns in fragmented landscapes.
in Ecology letters
García-Carreras B
(2011)
An empirical link between the spectral colour of climate and the spectral colour of field populations in the context of climate change.
in The Journal of animal ecology
García-Carreras B
(2013)
Are changes in the mean or variability of climate signals more important for long-term stochastic growth rate?
in PloS one
HALE A
(2012)
THE KURAMOTO MODEL SUBJECT TO A FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENT: APPLICATION TO BRAINWAVE DYNAMICS
in Fluctuation and Noise Letters
Hudson L
(2012)
Cheddar: analysis and visualisation of ecological communities in R
in Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Description | Main outcomes include developing new methods of understanding synchrony, based on wavelet analysis, and applying them to understand the causes of synchrony in plankton metacommunities in the North Sea, how synchrony propagates through the plankton food web, and how climate change might affect synchrony. There has also been application to aphid metacommunities. |
Exploitation Route | Co-I's on the project work at Rothamsted Research, and there may be potential for agricultural exploitation of some of the aphid results. Results generally are basic science and serve to discover new and important ways in which climate change can impact biota. |
Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment |
URL | http://www.reumanlab.ku.edu/research |
Description | Amazon's extinction debt still to be paid. 12 July 2012. Nature News. Coverage of Wearn, Reuman & Ewers, Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon. Amazon's doomed species set to pay deforestation's 'extinction debt'. 12 July 2012. The Guardian. Coverage of Wearn, Reuman & Ewers, Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon. Amazon's endangered species face 'extinction debt'. 12 July 2012. Huffington Post. Coverage of Wearn, Reuman & Ewers, Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon. Amazon due for numerous species extinctions. 12 July 2012. LiveScience. Coverage of Wearn, Reuman & Ewers, Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon. Selected press coverage in popular media. |
Sector | Environment |
Description | My US-based collaborators applied to the NSF mathematical biology program to further support their side of the work |
Amount | $600,000 (USD) |
Organisation | National Science Foundation (NSF) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United States |
Start | 10/2012 |
End | 09/2017 |
Title | Cheddar: Analysis and visualization of ecological communities in R |
Description | A software package released on the Comprehensive R Archive Network and described in a publication also listed on this system. For manipulating ecological community data. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Title | Gruyere: Multi-species population dynamics in the style of Yodzis & Innes 1992 (American Naturalist) in R |
Description | A package for simulating community dynamics. Useful for studying synchrony because one can simulate communties and thereby understand how population become synchronized. Based on Cheddar. |
Type Of Technology | Software |