Effects of a warming climate on the key organic carbon cycle processes in the Eurasian Arctic

The Earth is warming but forecasts indicate that the fastest warming regions on the planet are close to the poles. The Siberian region in particular is experiencing one of the largest warming trends on Earth. The Eurasian Arctic, containing one of the largest carbon reservoirs on the globe trapped by permafrost, might therefore be at risk. Amplified warming could cause a general reduction of the total volume of permafrost causing the remobilization of large amounts of this trapped carbon. It is presently unclear to what extent this remobilization is already happening and what will happen to this carbon after it is transported off the permafrost areas to the Eurasian Arctic Shelf (EAS). This area is also known to contain vast amounts of methane trapped in submerged permafrost and not much is known about the effects of a warming climate on the release and subsequent microbiological cycling of this potent greenhouse gas. As stated by Prof. Chris Rapley, on the NERC website 'the polar regions are an integral part of the machinery of this planet' meaning that changes in the Arctic region have potential feedbacks to the entire global carbon-climate system. Therefore if we want to understand the effects of climate warming on the global carbon cycle we must understand the processes occurring in the Arctic region, making the EAS a highly important area for research. However, this is an understudied region, mostly due to limited access to non-Russian scientists, and research is currently limited by the availability of good representative samples from this region.

In the summer of 2008, state of the art sampling of both sediments and the overlying water column was performed during the ISSS-08 expedition along the entire EAS seaboard as well as over detailed cross-shelf transects, both off Russian Arctic Rivers and areas of extensive coastal erosion. This also included areas with high methane concentrations in the water column. The PI participated in the cruise in collaboration with a group of internationally renowned scientists from Sweden, Russia, the UK and the USA.

We will use the sediments collected for this internationally competitive research program to study (1) the fate of the vast amounts of terrestrial carbon currently liberated from the Russian Arctic tundra/taiga areas, and transported to Arctic shelf regions by the Russian Arctic rivers and through coastal erosions and (2) the effects of climate warming on the remobilization and degradation, of this material on the EAS, ultimately to the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and also methane, which is already being released from melting submerged permafrost.

In this project we are collaborating with a Pan-Arctic group of researchers. The contribution from the UK group, lead by the University of Manchester, will focus on the testing of hypotheses associated with the (climate induced) remobilization and degradation of the macromolecular part of the terrestrial carbon, such as polysaccharides and polypeptides. We will analyse the composition and age (using compound specific radiocarbon dating) of this macromolecular material allowing us to determine the reservoir/residence time and to what extent (part of) this carbon is microbiolically degraded on transport. We will also, lead by Newcastle University, investigate the significance (the source, transport and fate) of organic material produced or recycled by microorganisms, including the greenhouse gas methane.

In addition to using the obtained data to test our own specific hypothesis, we will also combine the results of these analyses with those of the other Pan-Arctic partners to deliver an improved terrestrial organic carbon budget for the EAS. Finally the samples will also form the bases for future research proposals/collaborations with an international network of scientists working at the forefront of Arctic research, ultimately leading to many new interdisciplinary research projects.

The first specific group of end users will be the international scientific community working on related environmental research questions, particularly those modeling global climate warming effects. We will maintain a high profile of our work by presentations at national and international conferences and by publishing in high quality peer-reviewed journals. We will also archive our results and make sure that results can be widely and transparently accessed. Where appropriate, we will provide copies of our data to a NERC or other institute site. In addition, we will organize a workshop to disseminate our results to the wider scientific and engineering community. In this way we anticipate that the scientific community will be able to make maximum use of the results of our project.
The effects of climate warming in the Arctic region may have a direct effect on the global carbon cycle and ultimately on global society. Therefore many different groups will benefit from our results including politicians and policy makers dealing with sensitive areas such as carbon dioxide emission rights. This is a highly topical subject of great interest to the general public; hence our research will be of widespread appeal. Consequently, some of our targets will primarily be aimed at the general public with an interest in the Arctic region and/or the effects of climate change.

The following mechanisms will be used to ensure that these specific end-users have the opportunity to benefit from our research:
1 Publication of important findings through our university websites. We will also use a separate dedicated (interactive) Arctic website to inform the general public. The key components will be to give a description of our approach, the methods used and the results obtained in a user-friendly and accessible way. In addition, this site will serve as a link to other websites that discuss the effects of climate warming on the release of carbon in the Arctic region. All educational material developed as a result of other activities, such as the lectures/workshops and the podcasts (see below), will be made freely available though this website. In addition, research results will be communicated via the University Press Offices when they are likely to attract significant media attention and call for a press release.
2. Participation by the PDRAs and PI in a number of public events, including 'the Science Showcase week' at the University of Manchester (one of the most extensive outreach programmes of any UK university), lecturing (through a programme open to all ages) at The Manchester Museum, and assisting in running workshops on public engagement in Science.
3. Writing articles on the aims/results of the proposed research for journals that serve an audience of secondary school science students.
4. Visiting local Manchester/Newcastle secondary schools to deliver interactive sessions and present work in progress.
5. Contributing to the CAS podcast, The Barometer Pod. Two episodes will be produced dedicated to publicizing the popular outcomes of our research and the importance of Arctic research under this theme in general.
6. A workshop is planned for the later stage of the programme. The aims of this workshop will be: (i) to disseminate the outcomes of the project and to integrate these into larger databases and models; (ii) to identify additional work to be undertaken (supported by users), and (iii) to bring all key stakeholders and other Arctic researchers together. This will be an excellent opportunity for the scientists involved, including our pan-arctic partners, to interact with policy makers, including local MPs, to discuss the sensitivity of the Arctic ecosystems and the impact of climate warming. In addition to established contacts, the earlier years of the project will be used to identify additional potential users and colleagues who could contribute to, or benefit from, this workshop.