Extreme Climatic Events in Marine Ecosystems

This project will determine the impacts of extreme climatic events on complex marine communities and ecosystems using a combination of observational, experimental and modeling approaches and, in doing so, will represent the first multi-faceted body of work on the influence of short-term climate fluctuations on the health and distribution of living marine resources and biodiversity.

The world has warmed significantly over recent decades with major implications for ecosystems and the ecological goods and services they provide. Superimposed onto this gradual warming trend are short-term extreme climatic events, such as floods and heat waves, which have increased in frequency and magnitude as a direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Extreme events can cause catastrophic damage to ecosystems and invoke phase-shifts in ecological structure. However, knowledge of extreme climatic events in marine ecosystems is scant, having been opportunistically gained following a few disparate climatic episodes, and from simple laboratory experiments conducted on few species in isolation. There is a critical need for field-based studies conducted at the community or ecosystem level to elucidate response patterns to climatic events and, ultimately, to improve our ability to manage and conserve marine biodiversity.

This project will conduct novel field experiments that simulate short-term warming events to examine the effects of 'marine heat waves' on ecological structure and function in a range of marine habitats, including seagrass meadows, kelp beds and rocky shores. The project will develop two innovative approaches for conducting in situ warming experiments, which will yield novel information on pattern-related responses (e.g. community structure) and process-related responses (e.g. species interactions, primary productivity) to extreme climatic events. Moreover, the project will examine ecological response and recovery to actual extreme warming events - the 2003 European heat wave and the 2011 ENSO event off southwest Australia -to determine the resilience of marine ecosystems to climatic fluctuations. Field-based research will also be complimented with a suite of mesocosm experiments that assess the influence of marine heat waves on ecological processes and species interactions. Finally, the project will analyse long-term temperature data to decipher temporal trends in anomalous events and develop predictive models of ecological responses to these discrete episodes. This research programme will generate vital information on how extreme climatic events impact the ecology of valuable coastal ecosystems, which is urgently needed for prediction and adaptation to climate change in our seas.

This project will generate a significant volume of information on ecological responses to discrete warming events, from organisms to ecosystems. Fieldwork will be conducted in the UK, Australia and the Mediterranean, to test for generality in ecological impacts across different systems and to utilise naturally-occurring events. This work will be of direct benefit to those interested in the sustainable management of living marine resources and biodiversity (e.g. marine managers, conservationists and policy makers), in a number of different geographical regions. The knowledge gaps that will be addressed by this project have been identified by recent Marine Climate Change Impact reports for both the UK and Australia, which explicitly state that there is a pressing need for a robust examination of temporal trends in discrete warming events in our oceans. Furthermore, the most recent UK marine climate change impacts report card (2010) explicitly stated the need for better understanding of how subtidal ecosystems (e.g. kelp beds and seagrass meadows) will respond to ocean warming. This fellowship application is supported by the MCCIP UK and by CSIRO; the lead convenors of the Australian marine report card (see attached support letters). Close alliances with these organisations will ensure that research outcomes are effectively fed into the report card process, and that information is disseminated to a wide range of end users for maximum impact. Ultimately, the evidence collected by the Marine Climate Change Report card process is required by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has highlighted an urgent need for greater understanding of how marine ecosystems respond to both gradual climate change and extreme climatic events. Improved understanding of the likely impacts of climate change on ecological goods and services is vital for informing adaptive management processes and for ensuring the sustainable use of living marine resources. This has direct relevance to millions of people in the UK and elsewhere, as marine environments play an important socioeconomic and cultural role in society.

This project will examine the response of native and non-native species to warming events, both in the field and in mesocosms. Non-native species are a recognised threat to biodiversity and cost the UK economy an estimated £1.7 billion per year. This project will potentially identify non-native species in UK waters during field-based experiments and will explicitly test the relative responses of native and non-natives to warming. This field of research has direct benefit to governmental agencies involved in sustainable management of marine ecosystems (e.g. DEFRA, Natural England, EEA). Non-native species data will be supplied to DASSH, which is the marine node for the GBNNSIP (Great Britain Non-native Species Information Portal), and also made available via the National Biodiversity Network (NBN) to the Non-Native Species Secretariat website. Preliminary 'hot plate' work conducted by myself and others in Australia has attracted interest and funding from mussel farmers and the ports authority, who have invested $AUD 60K per year to examine how invasive pest species will respond to warming. It is envisaged that similar interest will be generated in the UK, with possible funding injections from the private sector.
Finally, the wider population have a keen interest in marine climate change and the work is likely to attract significant media and public attention. For example, recent work by myself and others on the effects of a marine heat wave on biodiversity in Australia attracted substantial coverage, resulting in articles in over 10 countries (including a piece in the New Scientist). Enhanced understanding and awareness by the general public of the consequences of discrete warming events for marine ecosystems will assist governments in gaining consensus on the far-reaching policies needed to reduce CO2 emissions.