DYNAMICS AND THRESHOLDS OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN WOODED LANDSCAPES

Woodlands provide a number of benefits to people, including timber production, areas for recreation, and the storage of carbon, which can help reduce the risk of climate change. Such benefits are referred to as 'ecosystem services'. Woodlands are also an important habitat for wildlife, including both tree species and the plants and animals that depend on them. However, woodlands in the UK, and in many other parts of the world, are currently at risk, because of the combined effects of climate change, aerial pollution, overgrazing and the spread of pests and diseases. These factors can interact with each other, leading to the collapse of wooded ecosystems and their replacement with other plant communities. Research is needed to identify which woodland areas are at risk of such collapse occurring, so that appropriate management responses can be identified. Information is also needed on the potential impacts of such "ecosystem thresholds", both on wildlife and on humans, through changes in the provision of ecosystem services. This project aims to provide this information, by studying woodlands in the New Forest National Park. Here, we will examine data that have been collected over a period of 50 years in a woodland in which many trees have recently died, but have not been replaced. We will use this information to see whether any indicators can be identified, which could be used to predict whether such collapses might occur in other woodlands in the future. We will also study the potential impacts of the loss of tree species, as might result from a pest or disease outbreak, both on wildlife and the provision of ecosystem services, throughout the New Forest landscape. We will also explore the possible impacts of other types of environmental change, including climate change, aerial pollution and overgrazing. We will examine impacts on nutrient cycling, carbon storage, timber production and the value of woodlands for recreation. This will be achieved using a combination of field data and computer models, which we will use to forecast how such impacts might occur at the landscape scale. The project will help increase understanding of how major ecological changes occur in woodlands, and their potential impacts. This information will be of value for identifying which woodlands are particularly at risk of ecological collapse, and how such problems may be averted in future, through the development of appropriate management and policy responses.

We identify the following potential users of this research, together with the benefits to be provided to each user group by this project. (i) Academic community, both in the UK and at the global scale. The project is particularly relevant to the interests of conservation ecologists, environmental scientists, community ecologists, ecosystem scientists, landscape ecologists, forest scientists and science-based geographers. These researchers will benefit from new knowledge generated and scientific advancement on a topic of global importance; and the development and implementation new methodologies, specifically relating to spatially explicit models of ecosystem service dynamics and use of indicators to provide early warning of ecological thresholds in forest ecosystems. The project will also help develop expertise and strengthen research capacity in the developing multi-disciplinary area of ecosystem service science, through training of highly skilled researchers and through participation in the BESS programme. (ii) Public Sector organisations, including policy-makers, government agencies and regulators. The project will contribute towards evidence based policy-making and influencing public policies and legislation at local, regional, national and international scales. Policy makers at the international and national scales will benefit from new knowledge on the likelihood of ecological thresholds occurring in forest ecosystems, and their potential impacts on provision of ecosystem services and human wellbeing. The research will also provide evidence of the role of woodland biodiversity in provision of ecosystem services. Results will have implications for identifying how forest landscapes can be managed effectively to achieve resilience under conditions of environmental change. Information on the functional importance of biodiversity will also help inform the prioritisation of conservation and management actions, and the regulatory process relating to forest management. At the local scale, the project will help support the effective management of the New Forest National Park, an area of exceptional importance to the natural heritage of the UK. (iii) Private sector, specifically forest industries, including businesses involved in management of forests both for timber and for other benefits, such as carbon sequestration and recreation. The project will identify how collapse of forest ecosystems can occur, and provide guidance on assessing the likelihood of such events. This has practical implications for the sustainable management and monitoring of forests, including risk analysis and business planning, and for achieving corporate and social responsibility targets. The project has significant economic implications, as forest collapse could potentially threaten the long term viability of the UK timber industry. (iv) Third sector organisations, particularly conservation NGOs and CSOs with an interest in woodland conservation and management, and their use for recreation and amenity. The project will provide evidence of the importance of conserving woodland biodiversity for the provision of ecosystem services, and will identify how biodiversity may be threatened by environmental change as a result of positive feedbacks and thresholds. (v) General public. Woodlands are of exceptional importance as a source of cultural enrichment, quality of life, health and well-being. The research will identify how such benefits may be threatened by environmental change, thereby increasing societal awareness of the importance of woodlands, and strengthening societal engagement in conservation of woodland biodiversity and sustainable forest management.