Integration of improved understanding of ecosystem service regulation into ERSEM model system

Summary
The world's oceans and seas are home to highly diverse ecosystems and are characterised by the richness and abundance of species. Marine ecosystems provide a range of important services to mankind including food production, climate regulation through the cycling of carbon and other macronutrients, and a range of cultural values (e.g. recreation, tourism). They are in serious decline, primarily as a result of over-harvesting, pollution, and the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. In many locations, pressure from human activity and climatic changes have been associated with dramatic shifts in species composition, known as phase or regime shifts, which are often long lasting and difficult to reverse.
Our understanding of the ecosystems of the UK's coastal and shelf seas is limited and many processes are poorly understood. For example changes in the physical and chemical environment (temperature, circulation, light availability, nutrients) mainly affect algal growth and thus impact the foodweb through bottom up control, whilst impacts such as harvesting act on fish which modify the biomass of lower trophic levels thus altering the controls from predation. However the relative roles of these processes and hence the extent to which environmental change cascades through marine food webs and affects ecosystem services requires elucidation.
Our challenge is to further develop the existing ERSEM-NEMO modelling framework to better represent biodiversity-relevant processes, flows and feedbacks over a range of spatio-temporal scales, and to be able to model changes in function and the consequences of such changes in the context of ecosystem services. Furthermore these modelling tools need to be suitable for testing the impact of potential management solutions, such as marine conservation zones, on the structure and function of marine food webs across scales, and to explore the efficacy of specific indicators of good environmental status.
A big challenge in modelling marine ecosystems is to capture the hierarchical nature of biodiversity and hence to explore a range of scales. This requires a scalable model system, with a traceable hierarchy whereby more complex foodweb structures can be systematically and coherently related to simple foodweb structures. The project will provide new modelling tools which provide estimates of crucial information to help resolve key scientific questions as well as provide a better understanding of the marine ecosystems as they respond to global change and direct anthropogenic pressures. The combination of predictive tools and new knowledge will underpin the development and implementation of marine policy and the implementation of marine forecast systems.

Academic beneficiaries
Improved understanding of the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to climate change and other anthropogenic drivers on multi decadal timescales will benefit the wider academic community. In particular, better resolving the trophic controls (top down vs bottom up) and how functional diversity affect the way marine food webs regulate ecosystem services will provide valuable insight and information. This increased capability could potentially support work in a range of disciplines far wider than considered here. Examples include regionally downscaled marine climate impacts modelling, marine biogeochemistry, habitats and spatial planning, sustainable fisheries, carbon capture and storage and offshore renewables, thus increasing the competiveness of the UK academic community in acquiring European funding.

Marine Ecosystems WP2 will develop; two core 'Div-ERSEM' modelling tools based on ERSEM as community model system which will be made freely available for academic use. The first is a relocatable water column model based on GOTM-Div-ERSEM. This system can be run on a PC and provides an entry level modelling tool for non-specialist modellers to engage in process modelling. This system will be made available on the internet for use by marine ecosystems scientists. We see developing better synergy between modelling and experimental studies as key to progress over the next decade. The second tool is the high resolution coupled 3D hydrodynamic biogeochemical model based Div-ERSEM-NEMO-shelf, and forms the basis for a community model to study spatially resolved system response. In addition we will provide a library of model skill assessment tools. Model data sets provide an important resource across the spectrum of oceanographic science. Examples include use in habitat identification, planning field work, the provision of boundary and environmental conditions for local studies and lab based experiments.

There is an international ERSEM model community, with model development taking place in Italy (CMCC, U Bologna, OGS) and the Netherlands (NIOZ) as well as a number of other users with a long history of collaborative engagement. We will use the inputs provided by the project to cross-fertilise ideas with the wider community and share code, to ensure that both our updated model benefits from the international activity and vice versa.
National Programmes:
This work compliments a range of national programmes/projects:
The NERC/Defra Shelf Seas Biogeochemistry program.
JWCRP Earth Systems Modelling strategy and i-MARNET though informing the development of a roadmap for the next generation ocean biogeochemistry model.
Modelling National Capability at NOC and PML.
NCEO-carbon (understanding the marine carbon cycling through a synthesis of Earth Observation and Modelling)
UK Ocean Acidification program (NERC/DECC/DEFRA), e.g. the regional modelling (ROAM)

International Programmes:
The IGBP programmes: IMBER and LOICZ
FP7 environment projects (e.g. DEVOTES VECTORS, Euro-BASIN.), FP7 Space projects (MyOCEAN II, OPEC, ECMOF) and potential successors.