Integration of improved understanding of ecosystem service regulation into ERSEM model system
Lead Research Organisation:
NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
Department Name: Science and Technology
Abstract
Summary
The world's oceans and seas are home to highly diverse ecosystems and are characterised by the richness and abundance of species. Marine ecosystems provide a range of important services to mankind including food production, climate regulation through the cycling of carbon and other macronutrients, and a range of cultural values (e.g. recreation, tourism). They are in serious decline, primarily as a result of over-harvesting, pollution, and the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. In many locations, pressure from human activity and climatic changes have been associated with dramatic shifts in species composition, known as phase or regime shifts, which are often long lasting and difficult to reverse.
Our understanding of the ecosystems of the UK's coastal and shelf seas is limited and many processes are poorly understood. For example changes in the physical and chemical environment (temperature, circulation, light availability, nutrients) mainly affect algal growth and thus impact the foodweb through bottom up control, whilst impacts such as harvesting act on fish which modify the biomass of lower trophic levels thus altering the controls from predation. However the relative roles of these processes and hence the extent to which environmental change cascades through marine food webs and affects ecosystem services requires elucidation.
Our challenge is to further develop the existing ERSEM-NEMO modelling framework to better represent biodiversity-relevant processes, flows and feedbacks over a range of spatio-temporal scales, and to be able to model changes in function and the consequences of such changes in the context of ecosystem services. Furthermore these modelling tools need to be suitable for testing the impact of potential management solutions, such as marine conservation zones, on the structure and function of marine food webs across scales, and to explore the efficacy of specific indicators of good environmental status.
A big challenge in modelling marine ecosystems is to capture the hierarchical nature of biodiversity and hence to explore a range of scales. This requires a scalable model system, with a traceable hierarchy whereby more complex foodweb structures can be systematically and coherently related to simple foodweb structures. The project will provide new modelling tools which provide estimates of crucial information to help resolve key scientific questions as well as provide a better understanding of the marine ecosystems as they respond to global change and direct anthropogenic pressures. The combination of predictive tools and new knowledge will underpin the development and implementation of marine policy and the implementation of marine forecast systems.
The world's oceans and seas are home to highly diverse ecosystems and are characterised by the richness and abundance of species. Marine ecosystems provide a range of important services to mankind including food production, climate regulation through the cycling of carbon and other macronutrients, and a range of cultural values (e.g. recreation, tourism). They are in serious decline, primarily as a result of over-harvesting, pollution, and the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. In many locations, pressure from human activity and climatic changes have been associated with dramatic shifts in species composition, known as phase or regime shifts, which are often long lasting and difficult to reverse.
Our understanding of the ecosystems of the UK's coastal and shelf seas is limited and many processes are poorly understood. For example changes in the physical and chemical environment (temperature, circulation, light availability, nutrients) mainly affect algal growth and thus impact the foodweb through bottom up control, whilst impacts such as harvesting act on fish which modify the biomass of lower trophic levels thus altering the controls from predation. However the relative roles of these processes and hence the extent to which environmental change cascades through marine food webs and affects ecosystem services requires elucidation.
Our challenge is to further develop the existing ERSEM-NEMO modelling framework to better represent biodiversity-relevant processes, flows and feedbacks over a range of spatio-temporal scales, and to be able to model changes in function and the consequences of such changes in the context of ecosystem services. Furthermore these modelling tools need to be suitable for testing the impact of potential management solutions, such as marine conservation zones, on the structure and function of marine food webs across scales, and to explore the efficacy of specific indicators of good environmental status.
A big challenge in modelling marine ecosystems is to capture the hierarchical nature of biodiversity and hence to explore a range of scales. This requires a scalable model system, with a traceable hierarchy whereby more complex foodweb structures can be systematically and coherently related to simple foodweb structures. The project will provide new modelling tools which provide estimates of crucial information to help resolve key scientific questions as well as provide a better understanding of the marine ecosystems as they respond to global change and direct anthropogenic pressures. The combination of predictive tools and new knowledge will underpin the development and implementation of marine policy and the implementation of marine forecast systems.
Planned Impact
Impact Summary
Who will benefit from this research?
Policy-makers
Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
EU member states
Agencies:
Marine Scotland
AFBI
Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP)
Marine Management Organisation (MMO)
National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF)
Commercial private sector
Environmental Consultancies
Wider public:
UK and international general public and relevant NGOs
How will they benefit from this research?
Policy-makers/agencies
The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC) (MSFD) requires EC member states to develop strategies to achieve a healthy marine environment and make ecosystems more resilient to climate change in all European marine waters by 2020 at the latest. The strategies must contain a detailed assessment of the state of the environment, a definition of "Good Environmental Status" (GES) at regional level and the establishment of clear environmental targets and monitoring programmes. Defra, Marine Scotland and AFBI are responsible for the implementation of the MSFD in UK and will benefit from improved knowledge and predictive skill for key indicators of the state of the marine environment. In addition by addressing productivity at the lower trophic levels of the marine food web, including forecasting to century-scales, our research may assist the development of marine fisheries policy and approaches for working towards an ecosystem-focused approach to marine resource management. Cefas are key to this engagement, having for many years advised and Defra (and more recently the MMO) on the environmental status of UK waters and are advising on the implementation of the MSFD and the CFP in England and Wales.
Wider public
We will publicise our research through:
A project website
Engagement with the media as appropriate
Programme wide outreach activities as they are developed.
Online summaries of the project and key findings disseminated to key interested parties or events
Who will benefit from this research?
Policy-makers
Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
EU member states
Agencies:
Marine Scotland
AFBI
Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP)
Marine Management Organisation (MMO)
National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF)
Commercial private sector
Environmental Consultancies
Wider public:
UK and international general public and relevant NGOs
How will they benefit from this research?
Policy-makers/agencies
The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC) (MSFD) requires EC member states to develop strategies to achieve a healthy marine environment and make ecosystems more resilient to climate change in all European marine waters by 2020 at the latest. The strategies must contain a detailed assessment of the state of the environment, a definition of "Good Environmental Status" (GES) at regional level and the establishment of clear environmental targets and monitoring programmes. Defra, Marine Scotland and AFBI are responsible for the implementation of the MSFD in UK and will benefit from improved knowledge and predictive skill for key indicators of the state of the marine environment. In addition by addressing productivity at the lower trophic levels of the marine food web, including forecasting to century-scales, our research may assist the development of marine fisheries policy and approaches for working towards an ecosystem-focused approach to marine resource management. Cefas are key to this engagement, having for many years advised and Defra (and more recently the MMO) on the environmental status of UK waters and are advising on the implementation of the MSFD and the CFP in England and Wales.
Wider public
We will publicise our research through:
A project website
Engagement with the media as appropriate
Programme wide outreach activities as they are developed.
Online summaries of the project and key findings disseminated to key interested parties or events
| Description | This work has infomed the development of high resolution regional coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem simulations, supporting the evolution of the Northwest European Shelf operational forecasting and reanalysis service at the UK Met Office. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
| Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Environment |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | NOC and Met Office Collaboration |
| Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP) between NERC and the Met Office, we have forged a strong strategic partnership with the Met Office. This takes the form of the Joint Marine Modelling Project (JMMP; formerly JOMP; the Joint Ocean Modelling Programme and JCOMP; the Joint Coastal Ocean Modelling Programme). JMMP comprises staff from both NOC (from the Marine Systems Modelling group) and the Met Office and enables the best possible versions of the NEMO global and coastal-ocean models to be taken up into predictive systems at the Met Office (for ocean forecasting, coupled weather forecasting, seasonal prediction, decadal prediction, and climate and earth system modelling). Successive versions of NEMO are developed internationally on a regular cycle and have a number of new options. The benefit of these options are assessed both individually and in various combinations through undertaking decadal timescale simulations on MONSooN, a supercomputer facility shared between NERC and the Met Office, and identical in architecture to the main Met Office supercomputer. Once the optimal combination of options has been ascertained, the NEMO model can then be rapidly and easily taken up into the predictive systems at the Met Office. The cycle is repeated approximately every 1-2 years. The shelf seas activities, specifically support the models run operationally in the shelf sea forecasting and reanalysis system at the Met Office and delivered by the European Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service. Alongside JMMP, the National Partnership for Ocean Prediction (formally known as the National Centre for Ocean Forecasting) aims to develop and promote the application of world-leading marine products and services to stakeholders, with a focus on national and public benefit. This is achieved firstly through the integration of models, observations and scientific understanding to produce the best information and advice about the marine environment, with rigorous quality assurance and traceability; and secondly through engaging with stakeholders to understand their requirements and to maximise the beneficial use of marine products and services. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP) between NERC and the Met Office, we have forged a strong strategic partnership with the Met Office. This takes the form of the Joint Marine Modelling Project (JMMP; formerly JOMP; the Joint Ocean Modelling Programme and JCOMP; the Joint Coastal Ocean Modelling Programme). JMMP comprises staff from both NOC (from the Marine Systems Modelling group) and the Met Office and enables the best possible versions of the NEMO global and coastal-ocean models to be taken up into predictive systems at the Met Office (for ocean forecasting, coupled weather forecasting, seasonal prediction, decadal prediction, and climate and earth system modelling). Successive versions of NEMO are developed internationally on a regular cycle and have a number of new options. The benefit of these options are assessed both individually and in various combinations through undertaking decadal timescale simulations on MONSooN, a supercomputer facility shared between NERC and the Met Office, and identical in architecture to the main Met Office supercomputer. Once the optimal combination of options has been ascertained, the NEMO model can then be rapidly and easily taken up into the predictive systems at the Met Office. The cycle is repeated approximately every 1-2 years. The shelf seas activities, specifically support the models run operationally in the shelf sea forecasting and reanalysis system at the Met Office and delivered by the European Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service. Alongside JMMP, the National Partnership for Ocean Prediction (formally known as the National Centre for Ocean Forecasting) aims to develop and promote the application of world-leading marine products and services to stakeholders, with a focus on national and public benefit. This is achieved firstly through the integration of models, observations and scientific understanding to produce the best information and advice about the marine environment, with rigorous quality assurance and traceability; and secondly through engaging with stakeholders to understand their requirements and to maximise the beneficial use of marine products and services. |
| Impact | NEMO model configurations. NW European Shelf Operational Copernicus service. |
| Start Year | 2008 |