IMPETUS: Improving Predictions of Drought for user Decision-making
Lead Research Organisation:
NERC CEH (Up to 30.11.2019)
Department Name: Hydro-climate Risks
Abstract
Droughts have severe impacts on societies, economies, agriculture and ecosystems. The 1975-76 UK drought had a devastating effect on the UK economy causing an estimated £3,500M loss to agriculture, £700M of subsidence damage to buildings and a £400M cost to the water industry (present day figures adjusted for inflation). Forward planning is critical for managing the impacts of drought, since early action enables stakeholders, such as public water supply and agricultural companies, to curb demand and to effectively manage diminishing water resources. Improved forecasts on drought management (monthly to seasonal) and planning timescales (seasonal to decadal) would be exceptionally valuable for effective drought management and for minimising the negative impacts of droughts.
Droughts are complex events, with impacts dependent on meteorological, hydrological and land surface factors as well as on water demand and management. Consequently, drought forecasting has many components: forecasting meteorological drought (deficit of rainfall), agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit) and hydrological drought (decline in surface water and groundwater), forecasting the consequences of drought for water availability and forecasting the effects of drought management. All of these are uncertain and any improvement in decision-making needs to consider all aspects of the forecast process. IMPETUS focuses on meteorological and hydrological forecasting linked to innovative methods for forecasting local domestic water demand during drought.
IMPETUS is an interdisciplinary proposal that brings together scientists from the meteorological, land surface, surface water and groundwater communities and social scientists from the water demand and forecast usability communities. The project involves internationally-leading scientists and social scientist from three NERC Research Centres (NCAS, BGS and CEH), four leading universities (Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and Southampton), the Met Office and ECMWF. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of UK drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will lead to the development of improved decision-making processes. This will be achieved by improving meteorological, hydrological and water demand forecasts and how they are combined to produce drought forecasts. This will be done in conjunction with stakeholders to ensure that drought forecasts are relevant for decision making. IMPETUS addresses WP2 (Forecasting Drought) of the UK Droughts and Water Scarcity call.
We envisage IMPETUS producing a range of high-impact publications in meteorology, hydrology, hydro-meteorological forecasting, water demand modelling and the usability of drought forecasts. The outcomes from IMPETUS will also benefit a wide range of stakeholders. These include informing the Environment Agency (EA) on the ability of the hydrological models used by EA for water resource management to represent drought, and furthering the understanding that underpins key operational projects, including the Hydrological Outlooks project. IMPETUS outcomes will also benefit the Met Office and ECMWF through an improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and recommendations for improving the representation of drought in operational meteorological forecast systems and climate models.
Finally, IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Particular examples of this have already been identified through initial discussions with stakeholders including precipitation forecasts for Thames Water and soil moisture forecasts for the agricultural sector.
Droughts are complex events, with impacts dependent on meteorological, hydrological and land surface factors as well as on water demand and management. Consequently, drought forecasting has many components: forecasting meteorological drought (deficit of rainfall), agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit) and hydrological drought (decline in surface water and groundwater), forecasting the consequences of drought for water availability and forecasting the effects of drought management. All of these are uncertain and any improvement in decision-making needs to consider all aspects of the forecast process. IMPETUS focuses on meteorological and hydrological forecasting linked to innovative methods for forecasting local domestic water demand during drought.
IMPETUS is an interdisciplinary proposal that brings together scientists from the meteorological, land surface, surface water and groundwater communities and social scientists from the water demand and forecast usability communities. The project involves internationally-leading scientists and social scientist from three NERC Research Centres (NCAS, BGS and CEH), four leading universities (Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and Southampton), the Met Office and ECMWF. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of UK drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will lead to the development of improved decision-making processes. This will be achieved by improving meteorological, hydrological and water demand forecasts and how they are combined to produce drought forecasts. This will be done in conjunction with stakeholders to ensure that drought forecasts are relevant for decision making. IMPETUS addresses WP2 (Forecasting Drought) of the UK Droughts and Water Scarcity call.
We envisage IMPETUS producing a range of high-impact publications in meteorology, hydrology, hydro-meteorological forecasting, water demand modelling and the usability of drought forecasts. The outcomes from IMPETUS will also benefit a wide range of stakeholders. These include informing the Environment Agency (EA) on the ability of the hydrological models used by EA for water resource management to represent drought, and furthering the understanding that underpins key operational projects, including the Hydrological Outlooks project. IMPETUS outcomes will also benefit the Met Office and ECMWF through an improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and recommendations for improving the representation of drought in operational meteorological forecast systems and climate models.
Finally, IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Particular examples of this have already been identified through initial discussions with stakeholders including precipitation forecasts for Thames Water and soil moisture forecasts for the agricultural sector.
Planned Impact
The overarching aim of IMPETUS is to improve the forecasting of UK drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will lead to the development of improved decision-making processes. Given the substantial socioeconomic impacts of drought in the UK, there is a broad range of non-academic stakeholders who will be benefit from the outcomes of IMPETUS:
1. The Met Office and ECMWF: IMPETUS outcomes will benefit the UK operational meteorological forecasting centres (i.e. the Met Office and ECMWF) by: i) the improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and their representation in climate models and operational meteorological seasonal and decadal forecasting systems, ii) an evaluation of operational forecasting systems for drought, iii) recommendations for improved forecasts systems and climate models (e.g. recommendations for the resolution of climate models) and iv) an improved understanding of how to produce hydro-meteorological forecasts for UK drought.
2. The Environment Agency: Part of the EA's role is to protect the environment by minimising the impact of droughts while ensure adequate public water supply. IMPETUS will benefit the EA by: i) providing insight into how to improve communication and facilitate the uptake of drought forecasts, ii) addressing the degree of model complexity appropriate to the forecasting of drought evolution across different timescales, iii) providing new methods to combine hydro-meteorological information in drought forecast systems and iv) providing guidance on how to integrate uncertain drought forecasts into decision-making process.
3. End-users of drought forecasts: Many economic sectors are sensitive to the impacts of UK drought including public water supply, agricultural, retail, finance and health. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Initial discussions with stakeholders have already led to decision-relevant metrics being identified (e.g. one month and 3-month ahead precipitation over the Southeast England for Thames Water; one-month and 3-month ahead soil moisture deficit for drought planning in the agriculture sector).
4. Government departments (DEFRA, DECC): Policy-makers and government departments (in particular, DECC and DEFRA) are keen to reduce the negative socioeconomic impacts of drought, which may be possible if mitigation measures are enacted with enough warning. IMPETUS will benefit policy-makers by providing improved evidence-based guidance on the current capability to forecast UK drought.
5. Wider public interest: UK drought is an issue of intense interest to the wider general public (e.g. public discussion of the dry UK winter and spring in 2012; recurring public discussion about the 1975-76 UK drought). Through public engagement (via the project website, a Royal Society exhibition, public engagement material and media engagement - see impacts plans for more details) we will improve public understanding of the drivers of drought and our current capability to forecast UK drought.
1. The Met Office and ECMWF: IMPETUS outcomes will benefit the UK operational meteorological forecasting centres (i.e. the Met Office and ECMWF) by: i) the improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and their representation in climate models and operational meteorological seasonal and decadal forecasting systems, ii) an evaluation of operational forecasting systems for drought, iii) recommendations for improved forecasts systems and climate models (e.g. recommendations for the resolution of climate models) and iv) an improved understanding of how to produce hydro-meteorological forecasts for UK drought.
2. The Environment Agency: Part of the EA's role is to protect the environment by minimising the impact of droughts while ensure adequate public water supply. IMPETUS will benefit the EA by: i) providing insight into how to improve communication and facilitate the uptake of drought forecasts, ii) addressing the degree of model complexity appropriate to the forecasting of drought evolution across different timescales, iii) providing new methods to combine hydro-meteorological information in drought forecast systems and iv) providing guidance on how to integrate uncertain drought forecasts into decision-making process.
3. End-users of drought forecasts: Many economic sectors are sensitive to the impacts of UK drought including public water supply, agricultural, retail, finance and health. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Initial discussions with stakeholders have already led to decision-relevant metrics being identified (e.g. one month and 3-month ahead precipitation over the Southeast England for Thames Water; one-month and 3-month ahead soil moisture deficit for drought planning in the agriculture sector).
4. Government departments (DEFRA, DECC): Policy-makers and government departments (in particular, DECC and DEFRA) are keen to reduce the negative socioeconomic impacts of drought, which may be possible if mitigation measures are enacted with enough warning. IMPETUS will benefit policy-makers by providing improved evidence-based guidance on the current capability to forecast UK drought.
5. Wider public interest: UK drought is an issue of intense interest to the wider general public (e.g. public discussion of the dry UK winter and spring in 2012; recurring public discussion about the 1975-76 UK drought). Through public engagement (via the project website, a Royal Society exhibition, public engagement material and media engagement - see impacts plans for more details) we will improve public understanding of the drivers of drought and our current capability to forecast UK drought.
Organisations
Publications
Hannaford J
(2019)
Enhancing Drought Monitoring and Early Warning for the United Kingdom through Stakeholder Coinquiries
in Weather, Climate, and Society
Harrigan S
(2017)
Benchmarking Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Skill in the UK
Harrigan S
(2017)
Benchmarking Ensemble Streamflow Prediction skill in the UK
Harrigan S
(2018)
Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Parry S
(2018)
Demonstrating the utility of a drought termination framework: prospects for groundwater level recovery in England and Wales in 2018 or beyond
in Environmental Research Letters
Parry S
(2016)
A systematic assessment of drought termination in the United Kingdom
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
| Description | 1) Shaun Harrigan has released a paper benchmarking ESP skill across the UK, this will be used when combining the ESP method with meteorological forecasts to determine the added value of meteorological forecasts in streamflow forecasts across the UK 2) several datasets have been released in collaboration with the Historic Droughts project. 3) In producing these datasets, robust methods of modelling streamflow (including PET formulation) where observations are unavailable in both past and future have been developed. Methods of model calibration in order to account for uncertainty have been developed, and published. 4) Maliko Tanguy has been working on precipitation data error in streamflow forecasts, identifying how much bias a precipitation forecast can have before it stops adding information to the ESP hydrological forecast. We expect this work to be published in the next financial year. 5) methods to predict ongoing drought duration, and termination in groundwater have been published by Simon Parry. |
| Exploitation Route | The findings and developments of the ESP method are in the process of being implemented in the UK Hydrological Outlooks. The ENDOWS project has used IMPETUS outputs to develop better tools for stakeholders, such as the Environment Agency. Understanding where and when ESP has skill will be used to assist forecasters. It is expected that the released PET and flow datasets will receive wide use both by water resource managers and academics alike. Streamflow skill information has been used as a benchmark for work within the HydroJULES project, improving streamflow prediction in winter using NAO analogues. NAO forecasts were trialled in winter 2018 and 2019, and hindcasts have been run using the research framework developed in IMPETUS. NAO forecasts have been published in the UK Hydrological Outlook in winter 2020-2021. |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Description | Results from the IMPETUS project are being fed into the ENDOWS project (with the public facing "About Drought" name). The work integrates hydro-meteorological findings with those from other sectors to produce a large catalogue of UK drought information. Reconstructed flow data that resulted from the modelling framework developed by the IMPETUS project has already been used to characterise past drought events with the Standardised Streamflow Index (https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/58ef13a9-539f-46e5-88ad-c89274191ff9). The modelling framework developed in the IMPETUS project has been integrated into the UK Hydrological Outlook, allowing the ESP method to cover 314 catchments, rather than the previous 26. The NAO work that Shaun Harrigan conducted to IMPETUS has been developed and trialled over winter 2018/2019, and 2019/2020. NAO forecasts led by Katie Smith have been published in the Hydrological Outlook UK over winter 2020/2021. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
| Sector | Environment |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Title | Historic Gridded Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) based on temperature-based equation McGuinness-Bordne calibrated for the UK (1891-2015) |
| Description | Monthly and daily 5km gridded Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) data for the UK. PET was derived using temperature-based equation from McGuinness-Bordne. The units are mm/day for daily PET and mm/month for monthly PET. The dataset covers the period from 1891-2015. For both subsets (daily and monthly), a set of performance metrics were calculated, which are provided together with the PET grids. The list of metrics provided is: Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Correlation Coefficient, Variability Ratio (VR), Bias Ratio and monthly MAPE. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Earth Systems Science Data Discussions paper https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-137. This dataset was used to derive a dataset of historic reconstructed streamflow data https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f710bed1-e564-47bf-b82c-4c2a2fe2810e, which in turn was used to derive a standardised streamflow index dataset https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/58ef13a9-539f-46e5-88ad-c89274191ff9 |
| URL | https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/17b9c4f7-1c30-4b6f-b2fe-f7780159939c |
| Title | Historic Reconstructions of Daily River Flow for 303 UK Catchments. NERC Environmental Information Data Centre |
| Description | This dataset provides consistent modelled daily river flow timeseries for 303 UK catchments over the period 1891 to 2015 with uncertainty estimates. Newly rescued and digitised rainfall data, and temperature derived potential evapotranspiration data have been used to calibrate and run the GR4J lumped catchment hydrological model. The daily flow data (in cubic metres per second) are presented in two forms: • Single flow timeseries with upper and lower uncertainty bands, • Ensemble flow timeseries from 500 model realisations The single flow timeseries is the best performing model run of the 500 ensemble members; the upper and lower uncertainty bands in these files represent the minimum and maximum daily values of the 500 ensemble members. The models parameters have been calibrated over the 32 year period 1982-2014 using a multi-objective approach, comprising 6 evaluation metrics (described in section 3.4). This approach has been taken in order to maximise model performance over high, median, and low flows; however, as this data has been developed as part of the UK Drought and Water Scarcity Programme, the calibrations are slightly more biased towards low flows. For the single flow timeseries, one metadata file provides the model parameters, and the model performance for all catchments. For the ensemble flow timeseries, there is a metadata file for each catchment that details the model parameters and performance for the 500 ensemble members. It is important to note that though the model's performance is adequate in the majority of the 303 catchments, observed flows are not well replicated in a select few. Model performance also varies significantly between catchments. Therefore, it is essential that users consult the metadata files in order to choose an appropriate study catchment, and to assist in the interpretation of the results. Furthermore, despite observed flows in some catchments being heavily influenced by human activity, artificial influences on river flows have not been explicitly accounted for in the modelling. See section 4.3 for further guidance notes. A research paper describing the modelling framework in detail, assessing the models performance in the 303 catchments, and evaluating the reconstructions in a drought context is in preparation (Smith et al., 2018, in prep). |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | This dataset was used to derive standardised streamflow index data. These two datasets have been used to systematically characterise drought events across the UK. This will enable water resource managers to have a better understanding of past droughts, and how they might influence the future. The streamflow data can be applied by any researchers seeking long records of daily streamflow. It is anticipated that this dataset will be widely used. |
| URL | https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f710bed1-e564-47bf-b82c-4c2a2fe2810e |
| Title | Historic reconstructions of daily river flow for 303 UK catchments (1891-2015) |
| Description | This dataset is model output from the GR4J lumped catchment hydrology model. It provides 500 model realisations of daily river flow, in cubic metres per second (cumecs, m3/s), for 303 UK catchments for the period between 1891-2015. The modelled catchments are part of the National River Flow Archive (NRFA) (https://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/) and provide good spatial coverage across the UK. These flow reconstructions were produced as part of the Research Councils UK (RCUK) funded Historic Droughts and IMPETUS projects, to provide consistent modelled daily flow data across the UK from 1891-2015, with estimates of uncertainty. This dataset is an outcome of the Historic Droughts Project (grant number: NE/L01016X/1). The data are provided in two formats to help the user account for uncertainty: (1) a 500-member ensemble of daily river flow time series for each catchment, with their corresponding model parameters and evaluation metric scores of model performance. (2) a single river flow time series (one corresponding to the top run of the 500), with the maximum and minimum daily limits of the 500 ensemble members. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Description | "What's past is prologue": Reconstructing historic flow data to inform management of future hydrological extremes - Keynote Presentation at European Geosciences Union, Vienna. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | A keynote presentation was given in the "Hydrological Extremes: from floods to droughts" session at EGU. This is one of the most popular hydrology sessions at the conference and was attended by over 200 audience members. The talk sparked interest in the outcomes of the UK drought and water scarcity programme. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-3332.pdf |
| Description | Developments in Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting Data Clinic at the About Drought Download event in London, December 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Katie Smith and Ali Rudd led a "data clinic" at the About Drought Download event. They presented the seasonal forecasting services available, that have resulted from work within the IMPETUS and UKSCAPE projects. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/AboutDroughtDownload_DelegatePack_Final.pdf |
| Description | DrIVER / IMPETUS drought monitoring and forecasting workshop, Wallingford, November 2016 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | A workshop to identify the needs of seasonal forecasts from a range of industry in the water sector of the UK, and a presentation of current expertise and state of the art science. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| Description | Drought and Water Scarcity HackWeek |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Approximately 20 scientists were invited to participate in a "HackWeek" along with "HackMasters" to tackle the issue of drought and water scarcity. The scientists ranged from postgraduate students to university lecturers, with expertise ranging from environmental science to social science. The scientists were broken into three groups to tackle: - Using media (newspaper and twitter) data to understand drought events - tying social responses to drought events - Using remotely sensed spatial data to develop a website for drought information - Using social media to encourage social response to droughts - through twitter campaigns The outcomes of these investigations and draft application development were presented to government policymakers, stakeholders and industry representatives with much positive feedback. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2006 |
| Description | HEPEX hydrological seasonal forecasting workshop (Sweden) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Invited speaker to give a keynote talk. The talk focused on the UK hydrological Outlook, which provides monthly to seasonal hydrological forecasts operationally for the UK. It also discussed the scientific challenges of hydrological seasonal forecasting in the UK, including the forecasting of droughts. The workshop was attended by 80 people. A seasonal forecasting test bed group was set up. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
| URL | http://hepex.irstea.fr/hepex-workshop-on-seasonal-hydrological-forecasting/ |
| Description | HydroSOS Forecasting Meeting with NCAR |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Katie Smith attended a workshop on ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting at NCAR. During her visit, Katie discussed the HydroSOS project with Andy Wood, who agreed to lead Work Package 5 - the demonstrator. Discussions aided planning of the progression of the demonstrator in the lead up to the 1st technical meeting of the project in Nanjing. Katie also discussed the forecasting framework developed by Shaun Harrigan in the IMPETUS project, and ways in which it may be improved upon using Data Assimilation. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Hydrological Outlooks Stand at the About Drought Finale Event |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Katie Smith presented a stand at the About Drought Download event. She engaged with several water companies and the Environment Agency, among others on the forecasting system developed in the IMPETUS project, as well as the outputs of the ENDOWS research. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/AboutDroughtDownload_DelegatePack_Final.pdf |
| Description | Improving Winter Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in the UK using North Atlantic Oscillation Analogues - Poster Presentation at European Geosciences Union, Vienna |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Poster Presentation at EGU Vienna. Sparked lots of interest from global scale operational forecast services in how to improve their own systems using atmospheric drivers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-5770.pdf |
| Description | Improving Winter Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in the UK using North Atlantic Oscillation Analogues - Poster Presentation at International Water Association Young Water Professionals Conference, Edinburgh |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Katie presented her work on improved NAO forecasting, built upon the IMPETUS forecasting system at the IWAYWP conference in Edinburgh |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.instituteofwater.org.uk/events-info/?id=1021 |
| Description | Poster Presentation - Investigating Uncertainties in Ensemble Hydrological Reconstructions of Drought Events - At BHS Peter Wolf Symposium, Wallingford. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | The British Hydrological Society's Peter Wolf Symposium is held annually, and is aimed at Early Career Researchers (ECRs) in hydrology research. This meeting lasted two days, and included several keynote speakers, presentations and posters from ECRs and a field trip that demonstrated the use of an ARC boat to gauge high river flows. The meeting brought together young hydrologists working in the UK to discuss their research. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | https://www.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/WebVersion_Draft%20programme_LB_OH_Final.pdf |
| Description | Presentation - Improving seasonal drought forecasting: recent advances in streamflow forecasts from the IMPETUS project - at BHS Seasonal Forecasting: Meeting Users Needs Conference, Loughborough |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Our two-day workshop in Loughborough on Seasonal Forecasting of Water Resources - Meeting User Needs (24-25 January) was attended by 43 participants from a diverse range of organisations (CEH, ECMWF, EA, SEPA, NRW, NCAS, National Farmers' Union, Canal & River Trust, SMHI, Civil Protection Agency), water agencies/ consultancies (Anglian Water Services, Scottish Water, CH2M, South West Water Ltd), and universities (Maynooth, Reading, Coventry, Loughborough, Colima, Newcastle, West of England, WSL), with delegates from six countries (UK, Ireland, Mexico, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden). The event was co-sponsored by the RCUK Drought Programme, Water@Loughborough, Water@Reading, and the British Hydrological Society. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://louisejslater.com/2018/02/01/seasonal-forecasting-meeting-user-needs/ |
| Description | Presentation - Improving seasonal prediction of UK winter streamflow - at HEPEX Workshop in Melbourne |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | More than 120 HEPEXers from 15 countries descended on Melbourne, Australia, for three days of sunshine, science and applications at the 2018 HEPEX 'Breaking the Barriers' Workshop. The meeting kicked off with a series of short talks recognizing the importance of water predictions and science, and from an elder of the Wurundjeri people, who stressed the long history of indigenous peoples living in balance with the land and water. The Workshop was supported by CSIRO, the University of Melbourne and the Bureau of Meteorology. The participants had the opportunity to listen and interact during the 38 oral presentations (including 3 keynote speeches and 10 invited talks), and 40 posters, whilst the open discussion sessions allowed sharing of experiences and insights. Here, we only select and summarize a few out of the numerous high quality presentations. Hannah Cloke's keynote talk "Fly me to the moon" set the stage by reviewing the last decade of progress in flood forecasting for the UK and challenges in taking flood forecasts to a global scale. Hannah above all highlighted the need to 'be brave' in trying new approaches, which stayed in the minds of participants for the rest of the workshop. Subsequent presentations on day one reported on projects assessing the quality of global and regional forecasts of flash floods, riverine flooding, drought and seasonal streamflow generated by land system models harnessing and compiling global impact databases to support verification. Florian Pappenberger highlighted that a greater focus on integrating the land surface as part of Earth System prediction is likely to be the key to extending prediction skill. A healthy diversity of methods were showcased, including multi-model approaches and data assimilation to improve estimates of modeling and forecast uncertainty, the coupling of coarse land surface models (LSMs) to sub-grid routing and high-resolution hydrologic/hydraulic modeling, and the use of GPU-based computing for forecasting. The second day of the meeting opened with a description of the EDgE Copernicus proof-of-concept, which is comparing the performance LSMs for seasonal to sub-seasonal (S2S) forecasting in Europe and contrasting skill arising from ESP versus GCM-based predictions. The focus pulled back to methodological questions related to downscaling, merging and pre-processing of weather and climate forecasts, investigating predictability at S2S scales, and highlighting the advancement of dynamical national systems in countries such as New Zealand and China. Talks also delved into using radar-based rainfall and ensemble approaches to flash flood forecasting. Verification was also discussed, with talks showing new systems for meteorological forecast verification in Australia as well as challenging HEPEX's hydrologists to think more carefully about what we verify, and how event performance may affect user confidence in forecasts and their effectiveness in motivating action. The keynote talk of the day was a blockbuster, with Dasarath "Jaya" Jayasuriya, the Director of Public Safety for the Bureau of Meteorology, who dispensed rare wisdom on how forecasting fits within Australia's national services for managing resources and risk, including insights into forecast-related objectives, mindsets and constraints from the producer side to the public user side. Among other topics, his comments on how BoM navigates the path of serving different users while promoting overall acceptance of forecasts (perhaps through hands on case studies that raise awareness in the field), were illuminating. Healthy discussions over a healthy lunch: intense days of forecast discussions were balanced by plenty of socializing. The Twitter stream #hepex and the WhatsApp 'HEPEX in Melbourne' played a key role in keeping participants in Melbourne and from abroad connected. HEPEX Day 3 began with a focus on S2S forecasts, with an SMHI effort characterizing predictability (through watershed initial conditions and climate) using collections of geophysical attributes, and work in the UK to understand and enhance climate / drought predictability through the incorporation of NAO variability. The conversation turned toward forecast product development and communication, highlighting the importance of co-development of forecast services with users (see also the SWICCA Copernicus proof-of-concept). The day's keynote speaker, Matthew Bethune of the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) Authority, provided a bracing real-world overview of the use of hydrologic models to support decision making in the MDB, highlighting the difficult challenges of making robust release decisions to supply customers at lead times (days to weeks) during which weather, climate and river conditions are highly uncertain. Among the methodological needs raised in the talk, the need to know how climate change may impact current methods for prediction was also raised. The final talk session of the meeting shifted to examples of real-world predictions for operations, both in flood warning and in hydropower operations for several systems. These talks provide inspiring case studies for effective implementations of ensemble techniques for energy management, underscoring the sense that HEPEX-style forecasting is becoming a reality for groups ready to 'be brave' and make the effort to implement ensembles. In addition, the speakers described methodological experiments aimed at finding the best strategies, suggesting that many questions are still of interest. Ensemble research is not a solved problem! HEPEX closed out the meeting with breakout groups, an interactive digital survey, and a closing discussion to take stock of where HEPEX should go. Many aims of HEPEX - including the operational adoption of ensemble hydrologic prediction for the benefit of society - have evolved from being a dream in 2004 to being realized operationally in a number of countries. What then are the key challenges HEPEX should pursue in the next 10 years? |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://hepex.irstea.fr/summary-of-the-2018-hepex-breaking-the-barriers-workshop-melbourne-australia... |
| Description | Presentation - LHS vs Automatic Calibration: Performance and potential benefits of an ensemble approach. At Barrington Bunker Group Workshop, Loughborough |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The Barrington Bunker Group represents a group of likeminded, but diverse scientists working in environmental science across the British Isles. The academics meet annually to discuss their current research to seek feedback and new directions. At this meeting, the uncertainty aspect of the IMPETUS project was discussed, and a paper planned for submission in 2018. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Presentation - Navigating Cascades of Uncertainty - Easy as ABC? At CRUISSE Network Conference, London |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The EPSRC-funded CRUISSE Network aims to bring academics from disciplines in mathematical, physical, psychological, social and other sciences together to better understand and help practitioners who are making difficult decisions. A conference was held in London to unite academics and practitioners to discuss methods of addressing radical uncertainty in a decision making context. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018 |
| URL | http://cruisse.ac.uk/blog/cruisse-network-meeting-2017-presentations/ |
| Description | Presentation - UK historic drought reconstructions: using the past to inform the future. International Water Association Young Water Professionals Conference "Water Resilient Futures", Cranfield, UK |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Katie Smith presented the Historic Droughts and IMPETUS research from CEH to the wide audience of the young water professionals conference. This audience included academics, practitioners, and policymakers across the water sector. Katie won the "Young Water Engineer 2018" award for her presentation, which she received from the Worshipful Company of Engineers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.cranfield.ac.uk/events/events-2018/iwa-young-water-professionals-conference |
| Description | Presentation at the Hydrological Outlooks Workshop in Bangalore on "the development and operationalisation of forecasting applications" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Katie Smith presented the IMPETUS work that has contributed to the development of the operational UK Hydrological Outlooks to a range of academics at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Prospects for groundwater drought termination in England and Wales in 2018 or beyond - Poster at BHS Seasonal Forecasting: Meeting Users Needs Conference, Loughborough |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Our two-day workshop in Loughborough on Seasonal Forecasting of Water Resources - Meeting User Needs (24-25 January) was attended by 43 participants from a diverse range of organisations (CEH, ECMWF, EA, SEPA, NRW, NCAS, National Farmers' Union, Canal & River Trust, SMHI, Civil Protection Agency), water agencies/ consultancies (Anglian Water Services, Scottish Water, CH2M, South West Water Ltd), and universities (Maynooth, Reading, Coventry, Loughborough, Colima, Newcastle, West of England, WSL), with delegates from six countries (UK, Ireland, Mexico, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden). The event was co-sponsored by the RCUK Drought Programme, Water@Loughborough, Water@Reading, and the British Hydrological Society. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://louisejslater.com/2018/02/01/seasonal-forecasting-meeting-user-needs/ |
| Description | Water demand workshop, Southampton, June 2016 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Workshop to identify how water demands could be forecasted in the UK, and how such forecast could be used in practice. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |