Developing an integrated framework for investigating biodiversity responses to global environmental change

Biodiversity continues to decline worldwide even though it is widely recognised that human survival and the maintenance of ecological processes rely on its effective conservation. A major challenge is to understand how biodiversity responds to global environmental change so we can predict and prepare for the effects of future conservation threats. Climate change will produce a range of new selection pressures due to rising temperatures and increased frequency of droughts and extreme events, forcing many species to move in search of suitable conditions or adapt. Anthropogenic habitat loss and land use changes are likely to intensify these pressures and limit the movement of individuals and their ability to colonise new areas. Whether species can respond to these threats depends on their sensitivity to change, their ability to adapt or adjust to new environmental conditions, their ability to move away, and the rate and magnitude of change. As species' responses depend on a multitude of factors, studying their responses requires a combination of different tools from different research fields. The aim of this project is to establish a new way of studying the responses of biodiversity to global change by combining genetic tools with ecology, geographical data and computer modelling.

This project focuses on several threatened European forest bat species with the aim of providing the evidence base for their conservation under global change. Bats are an important part of ecological systems and contribute to the agricultural economy through suppressing insect pest populations. Because of their high diversity, wide habitat use, role as top predators and sensitivity to land use changes, bats can be good indicators of the state of the environment and other wildlife. As such bats offer a good model system for studying the consequences of global change. Future climate change is predicted to affect the distribution of many European bats and may result in high losses of their genetic diversity. Forest bats may be particularly sensitive to future changes because of the high extent of forest fragmentation across Europe; something that has already been linked to their population declines and is likely to limit their ability to move to climatically suitable areas in the future. Therefore in order to design long-term conservation strategies for this vulnerable group it is crucial to understand how climate and the environment affect their distribution and ability to move across the landscape, and what are their genetic responses to environmental change.

The proposed project builds on the research programme developed throughout my independent research career and will benefit from available expertise and state-of-the-art facilities at Bristol and the wide diversity of expertise of project partners. I will first use ecological and mathematical modelling approaches to study how climate change and habitat loss will interact to affect the future distribution of all European forest bats. Focusing on two bat species with different distributions and ecology (Barbastella barbastellus and Myotis escalerai) I will survey populations from across their climatic gradients. To understand what drives evolutionary responses to global change I will use next generation sequencing to study the genes involved in adaptations of populations to current environmental conditions. I will develop new modelling tools to relate these local genetic adaptations to the response of populations to future climate change in face of habitat loss and to predict the consequences of global change. This will allow me to assess the likelihood of long-term population survival and to identify adequate conservation measures. An important aspect of this project is its impact on how we manage our environment, and therefore it includes the development of innovative ways to translate scientific findings and will provide resources for use by policy makers, planners and conservation managers.

This research addresses important scientific and conservation challenges that will not only impact biodiversity but will have ramifications for our future food security and wellbeing. Therefore it is of wide interest to both academic and non-academic sectors. Societal impacts are at the heart of the proposed project, and one of its main objectives is to provide the evidence base for the responsible management of our environment. An understanding of how biodiversity will respond to future climate change under the constraints of land use changes and habitat loss will help us better manage the environment and direct conservation efforts and reserve design.

More specifically, this project will directly contribute to understanding the conservation requirements of forests bats, a protected and threatened group of species whose conservation is likely to benefit the maintenance of important ecosystem services including the suppression of insect pest populations. This will have wider impacts on the future health of our forests and agricultural food production in face of the predicted spread of insect pests with future climate change. This project will also contribute to responsible forest management through identifying management practices that enhance biodiversity and landscape connectivity.

As this research involves protected species, it will directly contribute to national reporting obligations on protected species conservation status under the EU Habitat Directive, and to the UK meeting its targets of sustainably reducing rates of biodiversity loss under the Convention on Biological Diversity. Project findings will be used to inform the IUCN on the conservation status of a globally threatened species and a recently described data deficient species, and will help identify appropriate conservation action.
In collaboration with European conservation organisations, governmental bodies and researchers I will develop management guidelines for bat conservation under future climate change. These guidelines will enhance the recovery and long-term conservation of threatened populations. Approaches developed to integrate genetic data in conservation planning can be used to guide future research and implementation.

Project outputs in the form of species distribution and range shift corridor maps will provide vital information for conservation volunteers, wildlife groups, conservation organisations, foresters, nature reserve managers and statutory bodies to help guide survey and conservation efforts and the design of future reserves. Moreover, these maps can be used by environmental consultants, Local Record Centres and local authorities for planning future developments and mitigations. Modelling methods developed to predict population persistence will help target conservation efforts towards populations and areas under high risk from global changes, and will have wider applications for other wildlife.

Bats are charismatic species that raise wide public interest. As such they are good focal species for promoting public understanding of how global change will affect biodiversity, and public involvement in conservation and scientific research. Educational resources developed as part of this project can help educators in the teaching of environmental sciences and pupils in developing a better understanding of our natural environment. This project will also provide opportunities for undergraduate and postgraduate students to participate in fieldwork and get trained in bat survey work, something that can open the door to a career in the environmental consultancy sector. Students will also be encouraged to develop their own projects and will be mentored in study design, report writing, communication and public engagement, skills that will greatly enhance their job prospects.