Innovate UK - Predictive Pollution Monitoring System

Given the rise of shale gas industry there is a need for appropriate monitoring of greenhouse gases (often referred to as "fugitive emissions"). Shale gas drilling sites ("well pads") will need to monitored for health and safety purposes and equally also monitored to ensure efficient operation and minimise production losses. So can these monitoring requirements be coupled with appropriate technology so that these requirements and also that of environmental assurance can be met by one system?

To test the feasibility of creating a single, effective area monitoring system the project brings together Trolex and the ReFINE consortium (represented by Durham University). The project will run in three phases. An idealised monitoring profile will be generated through the mathematical modelling of a series of well pad leaks. Based upon this profile the project will assess the cost/sensitivity characteristics of the various current detector technologies and then design a possible sensor array schema. A proof-of-concept technology demonstrator will then be produced to establish the feasibility of the concept. The demonstration will be achieved by performing computer simulations of the behaviour of the sensor array against various well pad leak models to establish the resulting detection rate and characteristics, and by performing a very simple real-world field test using an artificially created point sources of methane.

To create an idealised monitoring profile a series of simple dispersal models of point methane leaks on idealised well pads will be established and will be considered by mapping over what area what concentrations would be present as a result of leaks. This modelling exercise creates a "concentration map" which will then make it possible to assess the number of detectors that might be required, and of what type, to give a sufficient probability of detecting a leak, measuring the flux or preventing an accident. This phase will draw upon existing studies and recommendations on the density of flame and gas monitoring in other contexts. From the "concentration map" the best sensor array design will draw on the complete range of available technologies, from ultra low-cost pallistors to sophisticated Cavity Ring-Down Spectroscopy. The sensor input data, together with sensitivity characteristics, will then be processed through a type of data mining software known as "Predictive Analytics". Predictive Analytics encompasses a variety of statistical techniques that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future, or otherwise unknown, events. To generate data from which it will be possible to test and simulate the developed monitoring scheme a simulated field leaking experiment will be carried out at a suitable onshore, analogue hydrocarbon source (eg. Potteries coal bed methane) and monitored for several days under normal operating conditions to measure a baseline in the available conditions prior to using a gas cyclinder to simulate a safe leak (2.5% methane, 50% of lower explosion limit). To provide data for subsequent simulation tasks the devices will be systematically moved around the site relative to the wind field to assess their spatial detection range.

Individual monitoring technologies suffer from two major disadvantages, they cannot provide a sufficient detection limit or quantification of threat, and the lack of algorithms mean they cannot provide the necessary outputs to cover the three basic requirements of health and safety, production control and environmental impact.

The development of unconventional hydrocarbons and especially shale gas resources in the United States has meant a quantum change in energy markets. In the UK there are estimated to be resources equivalent to 1329 trillion cubic feet although none have these have been licensed for exploitation as yet. Across Europe there 13 other countries with known shale gas resources and the largest projected resources are in China, i.e. there is huge potential for shale gas exploitation across the globe. However, exploitation of unconventional hydrocarbons has been highly controversial and at present there is no commercial extraction in Europe. Part of this controversy comes from the potential impact of shale gas exploitation on the environment and particularly on water resources and greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. Monitoring of the risk factors allows for better planning for future well pads and safer ultimate recovery of gas reserves as well as ensuring that current operations are compliant with existing regulations. Formulation of new regulations is also assisted by good monitoring and by accurately measuring environmental impact it will then become possible to put shale gas exploitation in the context of other emissions from other energy sources (eg. liquid natural gas). Good monitoring allows for good mitigation and so limiting environmental impact, decreasing greenhouse gas foot print and increasing energy production efficiency.

The introduction of the proposed new monitoring technology into a demanding arena which is not currently well served by existing systems will advance the UK's position as a technical centre of innovation and excellence in the world industry. Adoption of this technology will accelerate the growth of the company and its distributors, developing the requirement for skilled labour both in manufacture and support which will be based in the UK, producing additional tax revenue. More than 98% of the shale gas activity and potential market will be outside the UK so considerable export revenues will accrue to UK plc. The availability of this technology could speed the development of the shale gas industry. In the UK a recent IoD report estimated 74,000 jobs could be supported by a shale gas industry and its supply chain. Spending by the employees would benefit local businesses. Environmental benefits are concerned primarily with minimising risks of fugitive emissions. Recent reports by the Committee on Climate Change and the EC concluded that well regulated shale gas production would have lower emissions than importation of LNG. Better monitoring and future directions into citizen science not only lower environmental impact but increase environmental assurance. The reduction in manual monitoring to take readings will reduce the health and safety impact for workers on site and reduce overall cost of operation as well as allowing earlier intervention in case of problems.

Initially this project is focused upon methane and fugitive emissions because these are major issues for shale gas exploitation but the potential to apply the technology to other gases, water quality parameters and for other parts of the energy sector is huge.