The legacy of cyclone Pam: A unique opportunity to build a long term record of cyclone activity in the western tropical Pacific.

Tropical cyclones bring devastation to Island communities in the South Pacific. Understanding the drivers of Cyclone frequency and magnitude are key aims of meteorological agencies in the region. However, the datasets these organisations have to work with to better understand cyclones and their relationship to the regional pacific climate are short (often less than 50 years). Closed lake basins act like giant rain gauges, storing records of past climate and cyclone events stretching back over thousands of years. A key challenge is to identify the fingerprint of cyclone events within these lake sediment archives. The recent Category 5 cyclone Pam that devastated Vanuatu, provides a unique opportunity to fingerprint a known high magnitude cyclone event from a lake on Efate, Vanuatu. Working with local Meteorological and Geohazard agencies, we will collect surface sediments and a replicate long core of sediment with which to a) reconstruct the characteristics of the known recent cyclone sediments, and b) use that information to identify past cyclones within the longer record. We will then link the cyclone record to wider regional climate behaviour over a period in which major changes in El-Nino Southern Oscillation and the South Pacific Convergence Zone have occurred. We will train and disseminate the knowledge gained back to the Vanuatu agencies, providing new data and insight into cyclone forcing mechanisms.

This research has direct benefits for the 258,985 people currently living in Vanuatu, who are recovering from the devastating impacts of Cyclone Pam. The population is vulnerable to extreme cyclones due to their reliance on agriculture for food, much of which is destroyed in such events. The research will benefit them through the development of improved understanding of the frequency and (possibly) magnitude of tropical cyclones and their relationship to regional climate change. We will work with key stakeholders in the Government of Vanuatu, specifically the Climate Division (Mr Philipe Malsale) and Meteorology and Geohazards Department (Ms Esline Garaebiti, Head Geo-hazards Division) who are responsible, for climate change and geo-hazard disaster planning and mitigation respectively. Through these divisions we will a) disseminate the data and scientific understanding via a training workshop; b) develop educational resources for use by these Divisions in communicating the value of protecting archives of environmental data, and long term data, c) develop additional funding routes for converting the palaeoclimate data into improved climate models for Vanuatu (EU, AUSAID, FAO, SPREP). We will measure success by i) attendance at training workshops, ii) production and use of educational materials (website hits, register maintained by Climate and Geohazards division), iii) Drafting of one generic proposal and email trail to potential funding organisations in collaboration with Government of Vanuatu. Finally, public interest in the Cyclone and subsequent recovery has raised the plight of pacific Island communities to climate hazards. We will work with the media services at the University of Southampton, and personal media contacts, to develop articles on the science and its relevance to pacific island communities.