Integrated assessment of the emission-health-socioeconomics nexus and air pollution mitigation solutions and interventions in Beijing (INHANCE)

Lead Research Organisation: University of East Anglia
Department Name: International Development

Abstract

China's rapid industrialisation and urbanisation has been accompanied by large increases in air pollution. In recognition of the health and socio-economic issues associated with this China's State Council authorized a 1.75 trillion Yuan investment package: the Air Pollution Prevention Plan (the Plan).

Our project, INHANCE, will: i) evidence the socio-economic efficacy of "the Plan" and, moving forward, ii) deliver an evidence based, effective, equitable and integrated intervention and management plan for air pollution mitigation in the Chinese megacity, Beijing. Through the engagement of its internationally leading research team INHANCE is very well placed to achieve these goals and with high-level involvement (Deputy Chief Scientist) from CRAES, (major drafters of Pollution Prevention and Control Law in China), we are well-poised to realise maximum impact from our research.

INHANCE embraces ODA priorities by: i) promoting the economic development and welfare of a transitional China as its main objective; ii) ensuring long-term sustainable improvements to air quality in Beijing (transferable to other megacites); iii) building capacity in skills and knowledge, and; iv) supporting sustained development of research that will result in welfare enhancement and economic growth. The UK contribution in areas of environmental economics, UK air pollution abatement and air-quality renewable energy interactions represent clear engagement of UK research strength to realise ODA priorities.
As an 'enabler' project INHANCE will promote synergies and opportunities across the whole program and through the INHANCE 'Champions' (see Case) will lead the engagement with Themes 1-3, and ensure the delivery of integrated science-based policy evaluation and design.

Central to the INHANCE approach is a strong commitment to across program communication (WP1). Toward these ends an Executive Committee, in consultation with the program administration, will map INHANCE expertise to Themes 1-3. Two-way internal- and external-facing communication mechanisms will be implemented to foster an interdisciplinary environment.

INHANCE will deliver a quantitative performance assessment of China's current air pollution policies wherein the effectiveness of current anti-air pollution measures will be 'scored' (WP2). This scoring will be based upon pollutant inventories, atmospheric chemistry models (PKU-V3 / WRF-Chem), emission and economic performance of energy structure optimization, and, evaluation of end-of-pipe control measures.
The nexus among emission-health (physical and mental)-socioeconomic-energy impacts is central to the INHANCE research agenda (WP3). In order to interrogate this nexus INHANCE will establish and evaluate interactive relationships among exposure, vulnerability, impact on health, implications for industry and economic consequences. This WP will focus upon: air quality and renewable energy interactions; air pollution exposure and health impacts for low income population groups; measuring air pollution induced mental health impact; pollution footprint analysis - direct and indirect economic costs associated with physical and mental health losses, and; an estimation of the health burden associated with final consumption and trade.

In its conclusion, INHANCE will deliver recommendations regarding integrated policy design and deliver an assessment for policy cost-effectiveness. To achieve this INHANCE will: compare and qualitatively assess air quality policies between Beijing and other cities; engage with Themes 1-3 and other relevant stakeholders to prescribe air pollution abatement trajectories; undertake policy performance assessment modelling; utilise techno-economic inventories for anti-pollution measures to conduct micro cost-benefit analysis of new policies; measure health and macroeconomic costs and benefits in mitigating air pollution, and; transform evidence generated into practical emission alleviation pathways.

Planned Impact

INHANCE brings together natural scientists, economists, and social scientists across the UK and China to research, measure, re-think and communicate the lessons learned, where appropriate, from air pollution management in the UK and other countries; analyse the performance of China's current clean air act; and assess novel interventions, solutions and mechanisms for achieving effective and equitable air pollution reduction in Chinese megacities. Given the nature of INHANCE which requires close and extensive collaborations with the other program Themes, INHANCE is designed as an enabler project, leveraging the significant NERC and NSFC support given to the other themed projects among this research consortium, in order to deliver integrated and science-based policy design.
We design bespoke engagement tools for in-reaching within/beyond the consortium (including researchers and stakeholders from other Theme projects).
a) The INHANCE Champion pair mechanism: 3 Champion pairs with relevant research expertise from INHANCE will map to each of themes 1-3 for co-production of knowledge and efficient integration among the entire consortium.
b) The INHANCE Academy will be established and managed by INHANCE postdoctoral researchers. The Academy gathers early career researchers within the consortium and beyond in the field of air pollution research, in order to facilitate better communication of model details, exchange information, spark novel research ideas, and integrate results produced by this consortium.

INHANCE aims to outreach and engage with key stakeholders from different levels (international, national, regional and local) and sectors (public, private and civic) at all stages in the lifecycle of the research. Our engagement, communications and impact strategies will be co-designed with and informed by the consortium administrator and the other 4 projects from Themes 1-3 in order to minimise repetitive effort and maximise the impact of the whole consortium.
a) To ensure maximum profile and impact, we will then structure our activities through three tiers of engagement. For those stakeholders that can become active partners in INHANCE (tier 1 partners), we will develop close, formalised, sustained modes of engagement on programme management committees. One or two tier 1 stakeholders will be invited onto the Executive Committee. These partners will be involved in the meaningful co-production of knowledge, for example by helping us in data gathering and compilation, refining and focusing the project aim and objectives, reviewing and selecting appropriate research themes and questions in Beijing air quality research; recommending and commenting on thematic debate topics, suggesting new / alternative methods and means in promoting research and delivering impact, and drawing out the implications and aiding the communication of these to different communities of policy and practice.
b) For those stakeholders that have a clear interest in and who are engaged in work that is directly relevant to the programme (tier 2 partners), we will develop an engagement plan that seeks to promote active dialogue on the programme, and that invites them to relevant events and workshops and that offers opportunities to engage in INHANCE and the whole consortium more directly if they wish to do so.
c) For those stakeholders with a broader interest in the findings of the programme, including the media, (tier 3 partners), we will develop clear lines of two-way communication to inform them about, and to hear their comments on, the key research findings.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Our research found that of the 3.45 million premature deaths globally caused by fine particulate matter air pollution, about 12% were related to pollutants emitted in a different region of the world, and 22% were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. China's exports cause the greatest numbers of premature deaths because of the high population density of that country and its neighbors, the quantity of its emissions, and its focus on manufacturing for export. And we estimate that in 2007 about 11% of Chinese deaths due to air pollution were tied to goods consumed in the United States and Western Europe, which are the top importing regions of Chinese goods. The results are published in Nature 2017.

We used air pollution data to simulate fixed-scene images with a much wider range of air pollution levels and with more kinds of air pollutants compared with the traditional use of surveys. A psychophysical method which is traditionally used for qualifying people's perception during experience of stimuli was adopted to examine the impact of air pollution on SWB and we show that under the atmospheric conditions in Beijing negative emotions, assessed by SWB, occur when AQI (Air Quality Index) of PM2.5 increases to about 150. People's SWB falls rapidly with increasing air pollution. Above PM2.5 levels of about 150, however, SWB declines much more gently until AQI of PM2.5 reaches about 300 when there is another obvious decline. Our results quantify the impact of air pollution on SWB for a wide range of air pollution and air pollutants, and demonstrate a new method that could replace or augment traditional surveys, to enhance our knowledge of the impact of air pollution on people's subjective experience and well-being.
Exploitation Route Dataset: We have published the China Emission Accounts and Datasets (ceads.net), which provides the most up-to-date energy, emission and socioeconomic accounting inventories for China. The datasets contains full CO2 emission inventories for every of 300+ Chinese cities with 47 socioeconomic sectors. All data is free to download for academic usages. Initially funded by ESRC-DRAGON Project, and largely developed by the support of INHANCE, CEADs was built with the philosophy of 'crowd-sourcing', where a group of interested parties (currently over 50 scholars worldwide) freely working with the CEADs core team on emission data construction and verification. CEADs generates free, transparent, verifiable database whilst other data agencies could not provide. CEADs is also the only data provider for full emission accounts at city level. CEADs has achieved some outstanding notification by relevant academic colleagues and research groups. CEADs website has been used by over 10k active users from whole academic community, policy stakeholders and the public. Overall so far it has had over 1 million downloads of datasets have been downloaded from the website. There are 30+ papers published in peer-reviewed journals claimed that they were using CEADs datasets with comparison of international statistics, such as IEA, CDIAC and EDGAR databases.

Users
CEADs has achieved some outstanding notification by relevant academic colleagues and research groups. CEADs website has been used by over 10k active users from whole academic community, policy stakeholders and the public. Overall so far it has had over 1 million downloads of datasets have been downloaded from the website. There are 30+ papers published in peer-reviewed journals claimed that they were using CEADs datasets with comparison of international statistics, such as IEA, CDIAC and EDGAR databases.

Stakeholder workshops
CEADs team host a workshop to share the methodology and discuss next generation of emission accounts. This workshop brought international academics, practitioners and data users together to discuss current status of emission data and way forward of data in next generation in July 2017 in Norwich. We invited people from major international data agencies, such as International Energy Agency (IEA), Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), together with other 30+ international experts from Harvard University, University of California and European research institutions.

In China, CEADs have hosted three workshops 2017 (70 participants), 2018 (nearly 100 participants) and 2019 (100+ participants)) to provide training to relevant stakeholders in Chinese national and city authorities about our new method in accounting emissions. The purpose of such workshop was to organise key stakeholders such as from Chinese Statistics Bureau, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Sciences and Technology and local governmental bodies to be informed with latest research findings performed by CEADs team and assess usefulness in policy practice.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Energy,Environment,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice

 
Description Provision of transparent and free database of Chinese emission through CEADs Crowd-sourcing We have published the China Emission Accounts and Datasets (ceads.net), which provides the most up-to-date energy, emission and socioeconomic accounting inventories for China. The datasets contain full CO2 emission as well as other air pollutants inventories for every of 300+ Chinese cities with 47 socioeconomic sectors. All data is free to download for academic usages. We share the methodology to make transparent for all data compiled. CEADs was initially funded by ESRC-DRAGON Project, and largely grow and developed fully by the support of INHANCE, CEADs was built with the philosophy of 'crowd-sourcing', where a group of interested parties (currently over 50 scholars worldwide) freely working with the CEADs core team on emission data construction and verification. CEADs generates free, transparent, verifiable database whilst other data agencies could not provide. CEADs is also the only data provider for full emission accounts at city level. CEADs improved the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions accounting method with a territorial administrative scope. CEADs database is hosted in the CEADs.net website. The first dataset uploaded to the site presents emission inventories from 1997 to 2015, and it will be updated annually. The website provides the most up-to-date inventory of energy, the time-series of CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces, and socioeconomic accounting for China, as well as analysis on China's low-carbon development. The uniformly formatted emission inventories provide data support for further emission-related research as well as emissions reduction policy-making in China. Some socioeconomic data of the cities, such as GDP, population, industrial structures, are included in the datasets as well. The dataset provides transparent, accurate, complete, comparable, and verifiable data support for further city-level emissions studies and low-carbon/sustainable development policy design. The dataset also offers insights for other countries by providing an emissions accounting method with limited data. Later in its development, CEADs produced templates, online calculators and step-by-step manuals and published them online on its website, calling for crowd-sourcing data gathering for all developing countries and cities. Users CEADs has achieved some outstanding notification by relevant academic colleagues and research groups. CEADs website has been used by over 10k active users from whole academic community, policy stakeholders and the public. Overall so far it has had over 1 million downloads of datasets have been downloaded from the website. There are 30+ papers published in peer-reviewed journals claimed that they were using CEADs datasets with comparison of international statistics, such as IEA, CDIAC and EDGAR databases. Stakeholder workshops CEADs team host a workshop to share the methodology and discuss next generation of emission accounts. This workshop brought international academics, practitioners and data users together to discuss current status of emission data and way forward of data in next generation in July 2017 in Norwich. We invited people from major international data agencies, such as International Energy Agency (IEA), Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), together with other 30+ international experts from Harvard University, University of California and European research institutions. In China, CEADs have hosted three workshops 2017 (70 participants), 2018 (nearly 100 participants) and 2019 (to be held in summer 2019) to provide training to relevant stakeholders in Chinese national and city authorities about our new method in accounting emissions. The purpose of such workshop was to organise key stakeholders such as from Chinese Statistics Bureau, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Sciences and Technology and local governmental bodies to be informed with latest research findings performed by CEADs team and assess usefulness in policy practice. The way forward Dabo's paper in Nature Geoscience 2018 on Structural decline in China's CO2 emissions [2] triggered national debates about emission peak in China. Chinese government considers to reset their emission target, i.e. an early emission peak / more aggressive mitigation target. The methodology and dataset of city level emission inventory compilations [3] was reported in over 100 news outlets. More than 100 Chinese local authorities have approached CEADs for data sharing and methodology explanations. National Standardization Bureau invited CEADs to submit a proposal to publish the city level emission methodology as a National Standard (to be done by 2020-2021). By doing so, any city to compile emission inventory would be required to adopt CEADs methodology. Currently, a dozen of city authorities, including Shanghai, are working with CEADs team to develop official emission statistics and using for low carbon development strategies and plans. A dozen of cities in China (e.g. Shanghai, Beijing, Zhangjiakou) have started using CEADs method and datasets to compile their own emission inventory and design their low carbon strategies. CEADs team are closely working with Shanghai local government for city level emission accounts and the Chongming Eco-Island for carbon budget accounts and further emission cap-and-trade mechanism. CEADs will jointly release a National Standard (GB/T) of emission accounts together with the Standardization Administration of China (SAC), the Chinese National Committee of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and International Electro-technical Commission (IEC). The standard will be the first guideline for multi-scale emission inventory construction of China (to our best knowledge, it's a world first). It will become a guideline for publishing the emission accounts in China at national, provincial and city level. City level authorities may follow the guideline to compile their emissions inventories and make low-carbon strategies (to be developed). The availability of transparent and reliable datasets also opened up the possibility of policy development in all kind of sectors. Health sector is one of them. The World Health Organization estimates that 25% of death and disease globally is linked to environmental hazards. Dabo was invited to Rockefeller Foundation Economic Council, chaired by former Mexico President and 10 more world policy and business leaders, and became one of the Members of The Rockefeller Foundation Economic Council on Planetary Health. A global planetary health report will be published in end 2020 (evidence provided). We worked with former IPCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres and call for business and public to work together on climate change mitigation and drives net emissions to zero by 2050. A comment piece with 200+ academics, practitioners and policy-makers co-signed published in Nature at end of 2018.
First Year Of Impact 2017
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Title China emission accounts and datasets (CEADs.net) 
Description China Emission Accounts and Datasets provides you the most up-to-date energy, emission and socioeconomic accounting inventories for China. All datasets published by CEADs are the results of current research projects funded by Research Council UK, Newton Fund, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Chinese Academy of Sciences. All data is free to download for academic usages. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Serving for the public, the academic community, fully transparent, validatable, comparable, and free database. There are 1000+ users and 10k downloads since 2016. 
URL http://www.ceads.net
 
Title Frame of environmental footprint accounts and decomposition analysis 
Description the software provides a framework of environmental footprint accounts and decomposition analysis 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2019 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact
 
Title Multi-scale emission calculator for China 
Description the software is a multi-scale emission calculator for China 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2017 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact