ICE-IMPACT: International Consortium for the Exploitation of Infrared Measurements of PolAr ClimaTe

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In the short-term the most obvious socio-economic benefit is an improved predictive ability for the UK in the polar regions, incorporating a physical mechanism, the 'ice-emissivity' feedback, that is missing in the current version of UKESM. This mechanism has been shown to have the potential to significantly increase the rate of temperature change in the Arctic and hence has important implications for both the region itself and further afield. Enhanced temperatures would be expected to result in accelerated ice-melt, with consequences for the rate of sea-level rise. They may also encourage permafrost melt and associated methane release, creating a further, positive feedback loop. Through the course of this project we will engage the wider, international modelling community, first via our project partners and then through a dedicated project workshop (W2 - see case for support/Pathways to Impact), in order that this benefit is translated beyond the immediate ICE-IMPACT team. Obvious links can also be made with proposed cross-centre NERC projects focused on UKESM and the North Atlantic Climate System, both of which have NCEO involvement.

Looking longer-term, a better, quantitative understanding of the importance of the ice-emissivity feedback mechanism will benefit both the indigenous population of the Arctic and those regions that may be affected by Arctic change, including the UK. It will directly impact planning decisions made by the relevant national agencies (e.g. DEFRA) relating to sea-level rise (e.g. coastal flood defences) and governmental/inter-governmental policy concerning 'safe' levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. There are also clear benefits to improved predictive ability for the insurance industry and for those that might seek to exploit a permanent reduction in Arctic sea-ice (e.g.
shipping industry, fishing industry, oil/gas exploration).

Turning to alternative aspects of the proposal, establishing the importance of far infrared radiation (FIR) in terms of both its contribution to polar climate and the unique information contained in this part of the spectrum should strengthen the case for a greater number of dedicated FIR measurements, whether that be from the ground, aircraft, balloon or satellite. For example, there have been recent advances in instrumentation, particularly detector technology, that make a satellite based FIR instrument more feasible than has been the case in the past. UK firms (e.g. Selex UK) are at the forefront of some of these developments and hence the efforts of the ICE-IMPACT team in this area has the potential to benefit both UK industry and science.

More generally, clearly the work will benefit the general public. This will occur through the provision of enhanced information to those making decisions which will impact resilience to change as outlined above, but can also be realised via improved education regarding the fundamental science we will perform. An understanding of the complexity of the climate system, coupled with honest reporting of areas of current uncertainty can lead to improved decision making at the individual level. It can also motivate the climate scientists of the future.