The economic impact of El Niño related floods and drought on small and medium enterprises in Botswana, Kenya and Zambia

The proposed research will assess the impacts of and responses to extreme drought (Botswana and Zambia) and floods (Kenya) associated with the 2015-16 El Niño (EN) and subsequent rainy season. The aim is to examine the economic consequences for small and medium enterprises (SME) as they are affected by: water supply disruption in Botswana's capital Gaborone due to drought; extreme flooding in Kenya; and disruption in Zambia's electricity supply due to reduced hydropower production caused by low reservoir levels. The project is a partnership between the Grantham Research Institute (London School of Economics), the African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science (University of Nairobi), the Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation and the University of Barotseland (Zambia).
African SME are seen as crucial for growth and prosperity, yet they face numerous challenges, including climate-related disruption to essential activities. However, these impacts are often poorly documented and the evidence base of economic impact is very sparse. This research is timely and urgent; in all three cases there is a need for real-time/rapid assessment as retrospective studies suffer from recall bias.
The study is designed to start in April 2016 and track impacts and response through to February 2017 to make repeat surveys of EN impacts, institutional response and learning.
We identify three main objectives;
1) To document the hydrological impacts and water resource management response during and after the 2015-16 EN.
2) To assess the recent and ongoing socio-economic impacts of EN-induced disruption and mitigation responses in SME.
3) To examine factors affecting risk perceptions and behavioural change during a period of extreme climate disruption.
All three objectives concern important knowledge gaps and are also designed to generate evidence and novel insights that can inform policy and practice to support more effective climate risk management.
The project aims to make a difference through academic papers for disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary environmental journals. We will also make presentations at relevant national and regional fora and present key insights to disaster management agencies. We will explore opportunities to scale-up outputs through joint collaborations (workshops, events) with other projects supported by this call.
Programme and plan of research - The work consists of six main stages over 18 months;
1) Scoping of EN impacts from web reports and local media, complemented with stakeholder consultations to agree study locations and sampling strategy. April-May 2016
2) Design survey and interview questions, identify key respondents and SME. May-June 2016
3) First survey and interviews. July-August 2016
4) Data entry, transcription and analysis. September-December 2016
5) Repeat revised survey and follow-up interviews (Learning assessment). December 2016-February 2017
6) Complete analysis and write-up. March-September 2017
Dissemination activities will be undertaken throughout the full period and include a small mid-project stakeholder event and final dissemination event in each country.
The proposed work aims to integrate contextual information, biophysical data, interviews and surveys, collected at key points during the study.
The work will generate rigorous baseline evidence for three countries of EN associated drought and flood impact pathways and damages. Robust evidence of damages is essential for costing disaster risk reduction programmes and adaptation and useful to governments and development actors for targeting actions. Insights of water/disaster management and SME response and follow-up assessment of risk perceptions and learning will allow us to generate recommendations on preparedness and response (what works well; why, where and when) and feed these into research, practice and policy communities.

We have identified three case studies where the impacts of El Niño related climate extremes have been significant for key economic functions of the hydrological system. We have chosen to focus on SME because of their important role in economic development strategies in all three countries and the relative lack of research in this sector. For example, over 99% of Zambia's energy is from hydropower and the country's economic forecast for 2015-16 has been revised down in view of national power disruption. In Botswana, chronic and episodic water supply disruption to the capital Gaborone is a major issue and in Kenya floods during October to December caused 112 deaths and over 100,000 displaced.
Decision-makers in sub-Saharan Africa will benefit from the project through proactive communication of the evidence base on impacts and the empirical and applied insights of the research achieved through targeted activities. Post project sustainability will be achieved through publication of and access to the resulting evidence base of impacts.
We will achieve impact through (i) realising opportunities to engage with stakeholders through the research process itself, (ii) traditional academic outputs and (iii) specific impact related activities.
(i) Realising opportunities early on during the research process
The research involves extensive interaction with practitioners and managers in the water, agriculture and business sectors. We will take advantage of time whilst conducting fieldwork to make presentations at relevant national and regional fora. Key insights will be presented to DFID (and other donor/multi-lateral) country offices, relevant disaster management agencies and ministries of water and agriculture.
(ii) Impact through academic outputs and ancillary policy activities
We plan 3-4 academic papers targeted at disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary audiences. The papers will also be summarised in a short policy paper written for a larger audience which will be distributed through the LSE and the country partners' wide network of contacts. Furthermore, each paper will be accompanied by an online comment posted on the LSE Grantham Research Institute website and social media sites and other widely-read outlets.
(iii) Specific impact related activities
LSE has budgeted for a stakeholder event towards the end of the project to disseminate the project's findings and facilitate interaction with key in-country decision makers for whom the results will be highly relevant.
Each sub-contracted country partner has budgeted for impact-related events during and near the end of the project in country. We have already identified key stakeholder organisations and policy processes that could act as potential entry points for insights from the proposed work.
The research will generate rigorous baseline evidence for three countries of EN associated drought and flood impact pathways and damages. These will be made available through the NERC data management portal for future research and journal publications. Robust evidence of damages is essential for costing disaster risk reduction programmes and adaptation. The three study countries are middle income, however, our evidence of impacts is also relevant for low income country (LIC) contexts as SME are important routes for jobs and growth in LICs and insights on dealing with climate disruption will therefore be relevant to them. Our engagement activities will actively target LIC stakeholders and perspectives. Lessons learnt from historical events help in identifying important risk zones, vulnerable groups and potential sources of damage for risk reduction strategies. Insights of water/disaster management and SME response and follow-up assessment of risk perceptions and learning will allow us to generate recommendations on preparedness and response (what works well; why, where and when) and feed these into research, practice and policy communities.