Protecting airspace infrastructure: A tool for calculating along-flight volcanic ash dosage

The main objective of this project is to collaborate with aviation stakeholders (airspace regulators, airline operators, air traffic controllers and engine manufacturers) to enable the UK airspace infrastructure sector to use existing environmental science to minimize the risk of volcanic ash to aircraft. The specific project partners for this project are the Civil Aviation Authority (the UK's airspace infrastructure regulator), and British Airways (one of the UK's largest airline operators). The challenge facing the CAA is that new aircraft engine susceptibility guidelines from the engine manufacturers describe engine tolerance limits in terms of a dosage (i.e accumulated concentration over time) rather than a peak concentration. However, there are no fit-for-purpose tools for the aviation industry to estimate along-flight volcanic ash dosage. The CAA thus need new tools to support any decision to change volcanic ash regulations from current peak ash concentration limits to along-flight ash dosage limits. The challenge facing BA is, given such a change in regulation, how to plan safe flight-routes and evaluate post-flight exposure to volcanic ash.

In this project we will address these challenges by combining volcanic ash concentration charts and optimal flight-routing software to create a proof-of-concept tool which will allow along-flight ash dosages and the associated uncertainty to be calculated for the first time. We will use this tool to determine the sensitivity of along-flight ash dosage estimations to the spatial and temporal resolution of the volcanic ash information. This will be achieved by combining volcanic ash data, generated during the NERC funded PURE programme, with time optimum routing software, developed as part of the NERC funded EXTRA project.

The new knowledge developed in the project will be used by the CAA to support strategic decision making and will enable new regulations to be developed that are based on the latest understanding of volcanic ash hazard to aircraft engines. These new regulations will result in a more resilient UK airspace infrastructure. The proof-of-concept tools developed in the project will demonstrate how airline operators, such as British Airways, could implement these changes in operational flight planning procedures. This tool will also encourage the use of uncertainty information in operational decision making procedures.

In summary, the project will take existing research and translate it into information that is relevant to the aviation industry leading to clear benefits for the whole aviation sector. The project will last 12 months and cost £111k at 80% FEC

More than 6000 flights and over 650,000 passengers pass through UK airspace each day, thus any disruption to UK airspace due to volcanic eruptions can result in large economic losses to the aviation industry. For example, during the 2010 Eyjafjallajokoll volcanic eruption, much of Europe's airspace was empty of commercial flights for 8 days. The International Air Traffic Association estimated that it cost the airline industry £1.1 billion. The interval between individual volcanic eruptions is far from predictable, but with a volcano erupting in Iceland on average every 5 years, the possibility of eruptions elsewhere affecting UK airspace or UK operators, and air travel continuing to increase, situations similar to the 2010 event are likely to occur in the near future. This project will enable the UK airspace infrastructure to be more resilient to volcanic ash events in the future. The expected benefits and outcomes of the project for aviation industry stakeholders include;
- new industry-relevant knowledge that can be used directly by the UK airspace regulator, CAA, to inform strategic decisions
- a proof-of-concept tool demonstrating how operational flight planning and decision making could be performed by airline operators under new ash dosage regulations
- uncertainty information on ash dosage calculations to be used in decision making
- new collaboration between the aviation industry and academic researchers