GCRF African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (African SWIFT)

The GCRF African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (GCRF African-SWIFT) programme aims to develop a sustainable research capability in tropical weather forecasting which will enhance the livelihood of African populations and improve the economies of their countries. Improved forecasts will address key aspects of the UK Aid strategy. The results will be translatable beyond the partner countries to other nations of Africa and the developing world more widely. In order to improve African weather prediction, fundamental scientific research is needed, in the physics of tropical weather systems, evaluation and presentation of complex model and satellite data, and communication and exploitation of forecasts. The programme will develop research capability to yield ongoing forecasting improvements in the coming decades.

The overall aims of the project are to:

I. Make research advances needed for significant improvements in weather forecasts in Africa, and the tropics more generally, from the hourly to the seasonal timescale.
II. Build capability among UK and African partners to improve, maintain and evaluate operational tropical forecasts in future.
III. Assist African partners in developing capacity for sustained training of forecasters, in partnership with African academic institutions and international agencies.

Our strategy to increase research capability with societal impact is to build upon existing partnerships between forecasting centres and universities within four partner countries (Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya) and within the UK. In-country partnerships combine the strengths of academic and operational perspectives and provide sustainability. The project is embedded within the long-term structures and strategies for international coordination for the region. Specifically, our programme addresses the aims of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO; project partner).

The potential applications and benefits are:

A. New research capability in observing, modelling and evaluating forecasts of tropical high-impact weather;
B. Robust networks of African scientists with capability to advance the science in this field, and pull the science through into operational impact;
C. Significant improvements in weather forecasts, as evaluated using tested methods;
D. New forecasting tools used operationally for short-term (0-120h) and S2S prediction;
E. Significant impact on the regional strategy for provision of user-focussed, quality-controlled weather forecasts, as overseen by the WMO;
F. More effective use of weather forecasts to the benefit of African people and nations.

The impact of African SWIFT is clear through the strong involvement of African operational forecasting centres and the Met Office in the programme of research and capability-building. Through improvement of the operational capability of the African forecast agencies, and their links with their users and customers, African SWIFT will deliver an impact felt by many millions of ordinary people, and by large public and private-sector organisations in Africa. The forecast centres are mandated to deliver forecasts of value to their countries and regions, both through public weather service and to particular socio-economic sectors such as government departments (agricultural planning, disaster preparedness etc) and commercial
activity (power generation, transportation, fisheries etc). The delivery of products to some of these sectors is relatively well established (e.g. aviation, television/radio broadcasting), and in such areas the outcomes of improved predictions will be passed directly to deliver impact to users and the general public. In other areas there is very significant unfulfilled potential which will be evaluated in the project.

Specific beneficiaries include:

A. The scientific and academic community in the UK, which includes the Met Office will benefit from the increased research capability within the UK of weather forecasting in the tropics at 0-120h to seasonal time scales. This research capability comes both in the form of trained researchers and improved leadership experience, and in the form of research and modelling tools. This capability will be applicable to the rest of Africa and to many other tropical developing countries.

B. Weather and climate agencies in Africa will benefit directly from the research, training and collaborations. There is significant staff-time in each African country to collaborate on science questions with operational impact: secondment of these scientists between academic and weather services will be encouraged and funded where necessary. The academic-operational collaboration within countries, and between those countries, will make the resulting research networks more sustainable. Research capacity and tools will be developed in partnership between the UK and African partner organisations for further use in Africa beyond SWIFT.

C. Universities in Africa will benefit from strengthened links with the operational centres, a stronger pool of experienced researchers and research leaders, and a stronger link between their research and teaching programmes.

D. Five African research fellowships will be funded, in order to accelerate the research and leadership training of talented early-career scientists in the continent. These will be linked to our work package structure but awarded in open competition and will be mentored to give experience at UK research institutions and in the African operational and academic sectors.

E. Decision-making organisations in Africa and internationally will benefit from: Improved, quality-controlled forecasts on which to base decisions; Improved sharing of knowledge with the weather forecast agencies, so that forecast information is better tailored to their needs, brokered within WP-R1 in the project; Improved documentation and information regarding the availability and use of quantitative, quality-controlled forecasts, funded in WP-M2; A wider pool of trained specialists in Africa, and a better-trained workforce.

F. The wider public in Africa will benefit from improved forecasting skill resulting from better models for forecasting at various timescales, from better conceptual understanding of synoptic weather patterns over Africa and their uncertainty, and from advanced training for operational forecasters in Africa. The latter will not only have the aforementioned tools available, but also will gain training in evaluating the skill of the various forecast tools and thus gain confidence in their forecasts.