Weather Information for Disaster Anticipation: NERC Innovation Placement with Start Network
Lead Research Organisation:
London School of Economics and Political Science
Department Name: Centre for the Analysis of Time Series
Abstract
Dr Erica Thompson will undertake a placement with the Start Network, a group of charities working on rapid response to humanitarian emergencies. The Start Network are currently looking to improve their use of weather forecast information in order to anticipate crises before they occur, so that resources can be allocated in advance, potentially saving both costs and lives. To do this, they are looking for not only a weather forecast but also reliable information about the quality of the forecast - and they need all of it within 24 hours of an alert being raised if it is to feed into the decision process. Working together with Start Network members, Dr Thompson will create a rapid-response information system that collects and synthesises this information into a brief summary. As the tool is developed for more different types of events (such as heatwaves, droughts, etc), it will become able to do more of these tasks automatically and thus will be on ongoing resource for Start and the rest of the disaster risk reduction community.
People |
ORCID iD |
| Erica Thompson (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
| Description | (Sorry, I seem to have clicked a button to indicate that this has changed since the last report. I confirm that there are no changes to the previous submission.) |
| Exploitation Route | See previous answers |
| Sectors | Environment,Security and Diplomacy |
| Description | Our information was used to support the development of an operational procedure to alert and act upon the forecast of extreme heat for Sindh province, Pakistan, in 2018. There was therefore an impact firstly on the improved use and understanding of forecasts by the humanitarian member agencies, and secondly, more importantly, on the members of the public who benefited from the projects to which Start released funding as a result of the alert. Here are brief extracts from the Start Network's own case study: "Start members began monitoring for heatwaves after the April webinar. For the first time, they had a shared understanding of where they should look for quality heatwave forecasts, how far in advance they could accurately predict a heatwave, and how to use the data that's available." "Health messages helped communities to adopt protective measures against the negative health impacts of heatwaves. Through the project, communities were made aware of symptoms of heat exhaustion and measures to reduce its likelihood. A wide cross section of the community in Karachi reported implementing the health messages provided, including shopkeepers, drivers, students and mechanics. The information provided on heatwaves eliminated the confusion and uncertainty faced by members around which forecasts to use, which enabled them to raise alerts earlier than previous alerts in 2015 and 2017. The webinar also facilitated collaboration on the alert process and resulting project, by providing a shared understanding of the risks and how to address them. " |
| First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Healthcare |
| Impact Types | Cultural,Societal,Economic |
| Description | Start Network member briefing on Cyclone in the Philippines |
| Geographic Reach | Asia |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | The guidance we have provided is informing development of operational procedures for humanitarian action based on publicly-available cyclone forecasts, across the Philippines. Although it has not yet been used directly in the preparation of an alert, it has already been used as background and improved communication and understanding within humanitarian organisations. |
| Description | Start Network member briefing on Heatwave in Pakistan |
| Geographic Reach | Asia |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | From a Start Network internal learning document: "Health messages helped communities to adopt protective measures against the negative health impacts of heatwaves. Through the project, communities were made aware of symptoms of heat exhaustion and measures to reduce its likelihood. A wide cross section of the community in Karachi reported implementing the health messages provided, including shopkeepers, drivers, students and mechanics. The information provided on heatwaves eliminated the confusion and uncertainty faced by members around which forecasts to use, which enabled them to raise alerts earlier than previous alerts in 2015 and 2017. The webinar also facilitated collaboration on the alert process and resulting project, by providing a shared under- standing of the risks and how to address them." |
| URL | http://www.ericathompson.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Anticipating-crises-due-to-extreme-heat-in... |
| Description | Start Network pre-alert guidance note: Heatwave |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | From a Start Network internal learning document: "Health messages helped communities to adopt protective measures against the negative health impacts of heatwaves. Through the project, communities were made aware of symptoms of heat exhaustion and measures to reduce its likelihood. A wide cross section of the community in Karachi reported implementing the health messages provided, including shopkeepers, drivers, students and mechanics. The information provided on heatwaves eliminated the confusion and uncertainty faced by members around which forecasts to use, which enabled them to raise alerts earlier than previous alerts in 2015 and 2017. The webinar also facilitated collaboration on the alert process and resulting project, by providing a shared under- standing of the risks and how to address them." |
| URL | http://www.ericathompson.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Heatwave-Pre-Alert-Guidance-Note.pdf |
| Description | Trial of rapid-activation cyclone anticipation (Madagascar) |
| Geographic Reach | Africa |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or Improved professional practice |
| Impact | In advance of cyclones Batsirai and Emnati in February 2022, the Start Fund released £419,046 and then £216,290 to member agencies for anticipatory action in Madagascar regions forecast to be affected. At the time of writing there is not yet a detailed evaluation available of how well the funds achieved their aims but Start will be doing a full evaluation of the process and outcomes soon. |
| URL | https://startnetwork.org/start-fund/alerts/579-madagascar-anticipation-cyclone |
| Description | From models to insight: Effective use of models to inform decisions |
| Amount | £877,914 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | MR/V024426/1 |
| Organisation | Medical Research Council (MRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 10/2021 |
| End | 05/2023 |
| Description | Improving the Role of Information Systems in Anticipatory Disaster Risk Reduction (IRIS) |
| Amount | £258,418 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/R01423X/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2018 |
| End | 09/2020 |
| Description | Start Network Anticipation work 21-22 (Madagascar cyclone) |
| Organisation | Start Network |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Providing cyclone forecasting expertise; guidance in the use of cyclone forecasting tool to activate financial mechanisms based on forecast of cyclone in Madagascar; ad hoc assistance with queries; supports for local network members implementing the new tool |
| Collaborator Contribution | Expertise in forecast-based financing; access to local and national stakeholders in Madagascar including local meteorological service; practical and logistical considerations. |
| Impact | Use of a cyclone forecasting tool to activate humanitarian action in advance of Cyclone Batsirai (Feb 2022); Use of a cyclone forecasting tool to activate humanitarian action in advance of Cyclone Emnati (Feb 2022); Supported Start Network collaboration with Madagascar Meteorological service; Improved national response to humanitarian crises. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Start Network Cyclone Anticipation work 20-21 (Madagascar cyclone, coldwave) |
| Organisation | Start Network |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Providing cyclone forecasting expertise; developing cyclone forecasting tool to activate financial mechanisms based on forecast of cyclone in Madagascar; extending concept to other locations. Provided pre-alert guidance note for coldwave. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Expertise in forecast-based financing; access to local and national stakeholders in Madagascar including local meteorological service; practical and logistical considerations. |
| Impact | Improved humanitarian understanding of the capability of cyclone forecasts in Madagascar; Development of a cyclone forecasting tool to activate humanitarian action; Supporting the development of further forecast-based financing mechanisms; Collaboration with Madagascar Meteorological service; Improved national response to humanitarian crises. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Confidence and uncertainty in extreme climatic events. OECD Environment Policy Committee, Dec 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presentation as a part of OECD Environment Policy Committee (EPOC) meeting, Dec 2021 (online). Title of meeting section: Showcasing Recent EPOC Work-Managing Climate Risks, Facing up to Losses and Damages ENV/EPOC(2021)24 Title of my talk: Confidence and uncertainty in extreme climatic events. About 120 members attended (politicians and civil servants plus OECD supporting staff). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Discussion: Assessing the socio-economic losses and damages from climate change. OECD |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | OECD working group on loss and damage from climate change, gathering evidence for high-profile public report to be published before COP26 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | ECMWF forecast user group conference 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Attended the ECMWF user group conference on "Using ECMWF Forecasts" and presented talk about informing anticipatory humanitarian action to about 100 other delegates from academia, industry and national meteorological services. Questions and discussion followed the talk and we are now engaging more directly with ECMWF in order to connect their forecasts with users in the humanitarian sector. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Interview for the Economist |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Gave media interview to journalist Joel Budd for article in The Economist |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Invited panel member, Systemic Resilience, OECD-NAEC / Fields / Rebuilding Macroeconomics webinar, May 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Invited panel member for a discussion about Systemic Resilience (online). About 80 people attended. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Invited reflection: The Potential for Anticipatory Action and Disaster Risk Financing, Start Network Assembly, London, Oct 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Invited reflection: The Potential for Anticipatory Action and Disaster Risk Financing, Start Network Assembly, London, Oct 2022 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Research Showcase (LSE) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Presented our work at an interactive stall in the LSE's Research Showcase. A couple of hundred people attended, mainly undergraduate LSE students. Two contacted us afterwards to ask about other research and the possibility of getting involved. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | http://www.lse.ac.uk/CATS/Research-Showcase |
| Description | STRINGS seminar: How do evidence-based models contribute to the SDGs? (Uni of Sussex, online) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Virtual event |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRIMptVShkU |
| Description | Start Network Anticipation Practitioner Conference (Nov 2019, Bangkok/virtual) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | Dr Erica Thompson gave a talk and Q&A session for humanitarian practitioners, attended by about 50 people. The talk was about our work on anticipating crises and making use of forecasts. They were very engaged and asked lots of good questions, and several followed up afterwards on social media (Twitter) and email. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |