Cabinet Office High Level KE Fellowship
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
This Fellowship provides a link between policy-makers and managers involved in assessing and managing risks posed to the UK by natural hazards, and scientists studying these hazards. It will enable the policy-makers and managers to use the latest scientific evidence in their assessments and actions, improving the nation's resilience to extreme environmental risks such as those posed by storms, floods, heatwaves, droughts, earthquakes and land contamination. It will also lead to the development of new research activities which will address any gaps in the available evidence.
People |
ORCID iD |
| Nigel Arnell (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
Publications
Arnell N
(2022)
The implications of climate change for emergency planning
in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Arnell N
(2021)
The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK
in Environmental Research Letters
Arnell N
(2021)
The impact of climate change on policy-relevant indicators of temperature extremes in the United Kingdom
in Climate Resilience and Sustainability
| Description | I have identified where environmental science evidence is used in the current National Risk Assessment, and made recommendations to the Cabinet Office on improvements to (i) the way information is used and (ii) links with the longer-term Climate Change Risk Assessment. I have participated in discussions across government departments about ways if improving adaptation to climate change in the UK. I have continued to provide scientific advice on changing future risks and implications for future resilience. I reviewed the implications of climate change for emergency planning - following the hot summer of 2022 - and published a paper in the academic literature. This review highlights ways in which emergency planning procedures need to be revised to take climate change into account. |
| Exploitation Route | My findings will help inform (i) the next National Risk Assessment, (ii) the current Climate Change Risk Assessment and (iii) the development of research projects. |
| Sectors | Environment |
| Description | The objectives of my Fellowship are to encourage the Cabinet Office to use the best available environmental science, and to transmit policymakers need for evidence to the environmental science community to develop new research. Specifically, I have: (i) reviewed the evidence base used to inform the current National Risk Assessment, and supported the Cabinet Office risk assessment team in developing robust and transparent assessments of natural hazard risks; (ii) encouraged close links between the National Risk Assessment and Climate Change Risk Assessment processes (by making contacts between the two groups, and providing briefings to the NRA team); (iii) produced the first drafts of two background papers on long-term drivers of risks, building strongly on my and NERC-funded research; (iv) contributed directly to the 2019 Cabinet Office Areas of Research Interest, by proposing a number of topics to be added to the list. (v) participated directly in the development of (confidential) briefing papers on climate change and national security (vi) participated in the development of new adaptation and resilience policy across UK government. (vii) reviewed the implications of climate change for emergency planning in the UK, and published a paper. I have also successfully bid for funding through the UKRI Climate Resilience programme for research into the calculation of indicators of climate risk that can be used in the National Risk Assessment and Climate Change Risk Assessment, and the development of high impact 'worst case' scenarios. I have also advised research groups (for example the Wildfire Research Group) on how to make their research relevant to policy. Publications on climate risk have been informed by work done during the Fellowship. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2019 |
| Sector | Environment |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Contribution to UK National Risk Assessment |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | I have been involved in the review and development of the 2019 UK National Security Risk Assessment, focusing on the characterisation of natuial hazard risks in the UK. The NSRA is used to inform emergency planning in the UK. In principle, the NSRA leads to improved response to emergency events through improvements to the capabilities available to first responders and local authorities. |
| Description | High Impact storylines and scenarios for risk assessment and planning |
| Amount | £295,768 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | CR20-4 |
| Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2021 |
| End | 11/2022 |
| Description | NERC Climate Resilience |
| Amount | £288,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/S016481/1 |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 02/2019 |
| End | 01/2020 |