[Viet Nam] Comp-Flood: Compound flooding in coastal Viet Nam

Lead Research Organisation: National Oceanography Centre
Department Name: Science and Technology

Abstract

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Planned Impact

This project will develop new understanding of compound flooding in the Mekong delta. Outputs of the project will strongly support disaster management, assist decision making and aid development planning at national, regional and local scales in Viet Nam. This will have a direct and immediate positive impact, which in turn will have significant economic benefits for development, livelihood sustainability and food security. The project's major impact will therefore be in the delivery of new capability in flood risk communication, management and planning. Our long-term goal is that the project will be able to contribute to delta-wide coordination of flood resilience practices, policy-making and regional actions in the face of evolving climate and environmental change. Although our focus here is on the Mekong delta, our results and policy driven impact will be relevant to other coastal regions in Viet Nam and other vulnerable deltas around the world.
The pathways to impact have been developed and will be delivered through strong engagement with key government institutions at national (Vietnam Disaster Management Authority), regional (our co-I's in the Southern Institute of Water Resources Research and the Hydro-meteorological Observatory Southern Region) and provincial level (Bac Lieu, Cà Mau, Dong Thap provinces). The letters of support from the stakeholder organisations shows the need and demand for the proposed research and highlights their commitment to end-user 'buy in' from the outset of the project.
The primary way our project will achieve impact is through direct, regular and two-way engagement with our project partners, and other end-users identified throughout the project. At a national scale we will engage with our project partner the Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (DMA). Together with them, we will use the outputs from the project, to: determine types and pathways of storms that are likely to pose the most hazard to the delta; identify the most flood prone regions, and the most vulnerable communities within these areas; locate potential evacuation routes; identify key critical infrastructure that could be impacted, which would have knock on effects; and inform risk communication. The DMA partner with various NGOs and results from our study will be used to guide their plans regarding deployment of aid and other emergency resources to flood hit areas.
Working with the DMA, our co-I from the Hydro-meteorological Observatory Southern Region and our project partners the UK Met Office, we will consider the potential for seasonal forecasting relating to flooding, in terms of the intensity of the monsoon and likelihood of an exceptional storm season.
An important area that the outcomes of our project will contribute to is in regard to planning of future development across the Mekong delta. In November 2017, the Prime Minister of Viet Nam released a new resolution, in which he outlined the government's ambitious development plans for the Mekong delta. The outcomes of our project can link a better appreciate of flooding to the development of the delta, ensuring future development is either flood resilient or situated in areas with lower flood risk. With our stakeholders we will also consider the impacts of our findings in relation to the Mekong Delta Plan.
At a local level we will engage with government staff from the Bac Lieu, Cà Mau and Dong Thap provinces. As outlined in their letters of support they each have distinct challenges relating to flood risk. Throughout the project, we will engage with these organisations to understand the unique challenges they face in regarding to flooding.
Our impact strategy will deliver results to key governmental stakeholders who are best positioned to effectively influence policy and decision making. The two main ways in which we will engage with end-users are embedded with the main work plan via stakeholder workshops and a policy analysis report.

Publications

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Description The goal of the project is to understand the flood risk in Vietnam with a particular focus on the Mekong Delta. Our work has shown that during the period 1979 to 2018 there has been an increase in precipitation. This appears to be linked to a shift of monsoon activity towards Indochina during that period. In addition there are also indications that the strength of the hydrological cycle has increased (i.e. evaporation over the ocean increases which feeds stronger rainfall affecting land areas).
Exploitation Route The work in Comp-Flood is still very much ongoing. However, an improved estimate of the flood risk over the Mekong Delta will be of considerable benefit to the local population and government in terms of preparedness. We are working with scientists from Vietnam which will ensure that the results will ensure that results are disseminated among the relevant authorities.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment