SWIMMR Activities in Ground Effects (SAGE)
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Mullard Space Science Laboratory
Abstract
Space weather is a recognised hazard to several critical UK national infrastructures, including the power, pipeline and rail networks, with the potential for substantial (multi-billion pound, many days) economic impact on society. In the context of the SWIMMR project N4 ('Ground Effects Forecasts'), the fundamental driver of impact to these infrastructures is the enhancement of the existing electric field in the ground (the ground electric field, or GEF) during geomagnetic storms, which results from space weather. This GEF acts like an 'unwanted' extra battery applied to an already electrically conducting circuit. The GEF is therefore the source of electrical currents and voltages at the Earth's surface that can upset safe and continued operation of systems such as power grids and their power transformers, and systems for pipeline corrosion avoidance and for railway signalling.
The overall aim of the SAGE project is therefore to be better at now-casting, and for the first time ever, forecasting the GEF in the UK. Flowing from this new capability, the project we propose will also impose this now/forecast GEF on mathematical models of the UK power, pipeline and rail networks. From this we will calculate where the risk points are in each system, under space weather, and how big the impacts might be during severe space weather. This will help government, industry and other stakeholders better understand and mitigate the effects of severe space weather in these key technologies. Such aims (now-casting and forecasting the GEF and quantifying the hazard to ground-based technologies) are fully in line with, and will be leading, in terms of internationally recognised goals in this area, for example as described by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations.
To get to the point where we can propose this ambitious project, UK scientific capability has recently benefited from the NERC 2017 'Highlight Topic' project on 'Space Weather Impacts on Ground-based Systems' (SWIGS: www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/research/SWIGS/home.html), led by the PI on this present proposal. SWIGS has had the aim of developing the science underpinning the ground effects of space weather, whilst also creating and developing infrastructure models such that space weather impact can be quantified. SWIGS has helped improve a space weather power grid model for the UK, led to the first space weather high pressure gas pipeline model for the country and has produced new insights into space weather impact on the UK rail network. SWIGS collaborators have also developed independent UK capability in physical and empirical modelling of ionospheric and magnetospheric magnetic fields, which drive the GEF, with solar wind input. These novel capabilities will be fully harnessed in the proposal described here.
The SAGE project team comprises internationally known scientists from British Antarctic Survey, British Geological Survey, Imperial College and Mullard Space Science Laboratory (University College London). The project collaborators seek to build on the achievements of the SWIGS team, by coupling several mathematical models constructed during the SWIGS project, representing different elements of the problem, as well as implementing novel forecasting ideas. This will provide an operational now-cast and forecast system in partnership with, and delivered by, Met Office.
This operational system will take measured or forecast solar wind data near the Earth and use these to estimate present and future GEF impacts on the power, pipeline and rail networks of the UK, up to 1 hour ahead. These results will be made available on a series of web displays on systems at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre and will be communicated to industry and the public.
The overall aim of the SAGE project is therefore to be better at now-casting, and for the first time ever, forecasting the GEF in the UK. Flowing from this new capability, the project we propose will also impose this now/forecast GEF on mathematical models of the UK power, pipeline and rail networks. From this we will calculate where the risk points are in each system, under space weather, and how big the impacts might be during severe space weather. This will help government, industry and other stakeholders better understand and mitigate the effects of severe space weather in these key technologies. Such aims (now-casting and forecasting the GEF and quantifying the hazard to ground-based technologies) are fully in line with, and will be leading, in terms of internationally recognised goals in this area, for example as described by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations.
To get to the point where we can propose this ambitious project, UK scientific capability has recently benefited from the NERC 2017 'Highlight Topic' project on 'Space Weather Impacts on Ground-based Systems' (SWIGS: www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/research/SWIGS/home.html), led by the PI on this present proposal. SWIGS has had the aim of developing the science underpinning the ground effects of space weather, whilst also creating and developing infrastructure models such that space weather impact can be quantified. SWIGS has helped improve a space weather power grid model for the UK, led to the first space weather high pressure gas pipeline model for the country and has produced new insights into space weather impact on the UK rail network. SWIGS collaborators have also developed independent UK capability in physical and empirical modelling of ionospheric and magnetospheric magnetic fields, which drive the GEF, with solar wind input. These novel capabilities will be fully harnessed in the proposal described here.
The SAGE project team comprises internationally known scientists from British Antarctic Survey, British Geological Survey, Imperial College and Mullard Space Science Laboratory (University College London). The project collaborators seek to build on the achievements of the SWIGS team, by coupling several mathematical models constructed during the SWIGS project, representing different elements of the problem, as well as implementing novel forecasting ideas. This will provide an operational now-cast and forecast system in partnership with, and delivered by, Met Office.
This operational system will take measured or forecast solar wind data near the Earth and use these to estimate present and future GEF impacts on the power, pipeline and rail networks of the UK, up to 1 hour ahead. These results will be made available on a series of web displays on systems at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre and will be communicated to industry and the public.
Planned Impact
Space weather can significantly disrupt day-to-day activities by potentially damaging or tripping out power transformers, increasing corrosion in metal pipelines and causing faults on the railway network. Potential economic losses arising from extreme space weather, for example through blackouts, have been estimated at billions of dollars per day for the US. In the UK, the hazard ranks high on the National Risk Register.
Given the potential losses from severe space weather, SAGE will deliver economic and societal impact through Met Office to the electrical power transmission industry, the high pressure gas transmission industry and the rail industry. SAGE, through Met Office, will also deliver impact to government departments and agencies (e.g. GO-Science, BEIS, Cabinet Office) and international bodies concerned with space weather (e.g. WMO, UN, ESA). The outputs of SAGE will be delivered by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) and will include web displays of nowcasts and forecasts made by the SAGE system, backed by expert knowledge and advice.
Space weather is also a popular topic on social media and in print and broadcast reports. The project team's track record in space weather related outreach, therefore provides a strong base from which to organise outreach events in association with Met Office, and as required by Met Office. Our project is also intended to be synergistic with wider national and international developments, for example in respect of evolving government, industry, insurance company policy on hazards.
SAGE represents internationally leading science that will be of interest to academic colleagues worldwide. The operational aspects of the SAGE project will be of interest to space weather forecasting centres worldwide, including ESA (Europe) and NOAA (US).
Impacts from SAGE will be delivered through Met Office. SAGE has ten major deliverables
DN4.1 A report, based on outputs of NERC funded SWIGS project, that defines the proposed SAGE data streams, research models, operational requirements, code development and integration environment(s) and integrated model architectures
DN4.2 Construction of institute-operational prototype real-time, standalone magnetospheric-conductivity-grid/pipeline models and/or data products produced by these models
DN4.3 Delivery to MOSWOC of prototype real-time, standalone magnetospheric-conductivity-grid/pipeline models and/or data products produced by these models
DN4.4 An interim report on fieldwork activities and improvements in the UK Earth conductivity model
DN4.5 Construction of institute-operational prototype real-time, coupled magnetospheric-conductivity-grid/pipeline models and/or data products produced by these models
DN4.6 Verification of the operational coupled model at institutes (report)
DN4.7 Delivery to MOSWOC of prototype real-time, coupled magnetospheric-conductivity-grid/pipeline models and/or data products produced by these models
DN4.8 Final report on the improved UK conductivity model
DN4.9 Updated and delivered models at final version. Validation and testing of final integrated models at Met Office
DN4.10 Final report on the system - operational through MOSWOC - and reporting on research advances and activities undertaken to advance forecasting skill.
Given the potential losses from severe space weather, SAGE will deliver economic and societal impact through Met Office to the electrical power transmission industry, the high pressure gas transmission industry and the rail industry. SAGE, through Met Office, will also deliver impact to government departments and agencies (e.g. GO-Science, BEIS, Cabinet Office) and international bodies concerned with space weather (e.g. WMO, UN, ESA). The outputs of SAGE will be delivered by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) and will include web displays of nowcasts and forecasts made by the SAGE system, backed by expert knowledge and advice.
Space weather is also a popular topic on social media and in print and broadcast reports. The project team's track record in space weather related outreach, therefore provides a strong base from which to organise outreach events in association with Met Office, and as required by Met Office. Our project is also intended to be synergistic with wider national and international developments, for example in respect of evolving government, industry, insurance company policy on hazards.
SAGE represents internationally leading science that will be of interest to academic colleagues worldwide. The operational aspects of the SAGE project will be of interest to space weather forecasting centres worldwide, including ESA (Europe) and NOAA (US).
Impacts from SAGE will be delivered through Met Office. SAGE has ten major deliverables
DN4.1 A report, based on outputs of NERC funded SWIGS project, that defines the proposed SAGE data streams, research models, operational requirements, code development and integration environment(s) and integrated model architectures
DN4.2 Construction of institute-operational prototype real-time, standalone magnetospheric-conductivity-grid/pipeline models and/or data products produced by these models
DN4.3 Delivery to MOSWOC of prototype real-time, standalone magnetospheric-conductivity-grid/pipeline models and/or data products produced by these models
DN4.4 An interim report on fieldwork activities and improvements in the UK Earth conductivity model
DN4.5 Construction of institute-operational prototype real-time, coupled magnetospheric-conductivity-grid/pipeline models and/or data products produced by these models
DN4.6 Verification of the operational coupled model at institutes (report)
DN4.7 Delivery to MOSWOC of prototype real-time, coupled magnetospheric-conductivity-grid/pipeline models and/or data products produced by these models
DN4.8 Final report on the improved UK conductivity model
DN4.9 Updated and delivered models at final version. Validation and testing of final integrated models at Met Office
DN4.10 Final report on the system - operational through MOSWOC - and reporting on research advances and activities undertaken to advance forecasting skill.
Publications
Carter J
(2023)
Mean Energy Flux, Associated Derived Height-Integrated Conductances, and Field-Aligned Current Magnitudes Evolve Differently During a Substorm
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Smith A
(2022)
On the Considerations of Using Near Real Time Data for Space Weather Hazard Forecasting
in Space Weather
Smith A
(2020)
Probabilistic Forecasts of Storm Sudden Commencements From Interplanetary Shocks Using Machine Learning
in Space Weather
Smith A
(2021)
Forecasting the Probability of Large Rates of Change of the Geomagnetic Field in the UK: Timescales, Horizons, and Thresholds
in Space Weather
Smith A
(2022)
The Correspondence Between Sudden Commencements and Geomagnetically Induced Currents: Insights From New Zealand
in Space Weather
Smith A
(2023)
Statistical Characterization of the Dynamic Near-Earth Plasma Sheet Relative to Ultra-Low Frequency (ULF) Wave Growth at Substorm Onset
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Smith A
(2021)
The Impact of Sudden Commencements on Ground Magnetic Field Variability: Immediate and Delayed Consequences
in Space Weather
Description | Two new models that predict whether a geomagnetic storm is likely to occur and the likelihood of enhanced risk to the UK power network have been developed using machine learning techniques. These models give ~1 hour - 4 days notice of periods of enhanced risk and can be used in conjunction with other physical models to forecast damaging space weather events. |
Exploitation Route | Models will be adopted by the Met Office for use in the Space Weather Operation Centre (MOSWOC). Models are available on GitHub and may be made public for other space weather stakeholders to use. |
Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Energy,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Transport |
Title | SAGE MSSL Space Weather Forecasting Models |
Description | Two models based on machine learning algorithms that forecast the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm within the next 4 days and the likelihood of large changes in the magnetic field being detected at the three BGS observatories. These models use upstream solar wind data provided by NASA/NOAA to provide a probabilistic forecast of storm occurrence and the change in the magnetic field breaching various different threshold values. These models have been verified using standard techniques and shown to have good predictive skill |
Type Of Material | Technology assay or reagent |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Tool will be deployed to the Met Office for use at the Space Weather Operation Centre |
Description | Collaboration with BGS |
Organisation | British Geological Survey |
Department | Geomagnetism Group |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Analysis of ground-based magnetometer data. Analysis of real-time solar wind data. Development of forecasts of sudden storm commencements and large magnetic perturbations at UK magnetometer sites |
Collaborator Contribution | Provision of ground-based magnetometer data and archived real-time solar wind data. Development of modelling code |
Impact | Publications detailing impact of storm sudden commencements on large geomagnetic perturbations in the UK, forecasting of storm sudden commencements and forecasting of large magnetic perturbations. Development of forecasting tools for the UK Met Office |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Collaboration with BGS |
Organisation | Northumbria University |
Department | Department of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Analysis of ground-based magnetometer data. Analysis of real-time solar wind data. Development of forecasts of sudden storm commencements and large magnetic perturbations at UK magnetometer sites |
Collaborator Contribution | Provision of ground-based magnetometer data and archived real-time solar wind data. Development of modelling code |
Impact | Publications detailing impact of storm sudden commencements on large geomagnetic perturbations in the UK, forecasting of storm sudden commencements and forecasting of large magnetic perturbations. Development of forecasting tools for the UK Met Office |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Careers interview for National Space Academy online material |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Interviewed at National Space Centre by National Space Academy as part of a programme to produce a set of online materials to tell school students about space careers |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Interview for content for BBC Worldwide show (Greatest Show on Earth) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Provided responses to email queries on the aurora occurrence and colour and space weather impacts at equinox. As of yet, the show has not been broadcast. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Interview for content for BBC show on the South Atlantic Anomaly |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Met with BBC researcher to discuss Earth's magnetic field and the impact of the South Atlantic Anomaly. Provided comments on rough cut of the show, including of the commentary track and some of the visualisation used. As yet, the show has not aired |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Online talk as part of National Space Academy 'Take Over' week |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Talk to school students about space weather as part of National Space Academy 'Take Over' week. Talk was recorded and is available on YouTube. Talk has been viewed 188 times and has 4 'likes'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7T5Zcr_oBI |
Description | Talk and discussion on space careers as part of National Space Academy online meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Online talk on space research and engineering careers in university sector |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Talk and stand at Farnborough Sixth Form College 'Moving On' day |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Talk on working in science and the impacts of space weather given to sixth form students. Stand in careers fair also provided. Discussed with students the opportunities for working in the space sector in the UK and how research translates to everyday impact |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018,2022 |
Description | Talk at Radio Society of Great Britain annual convention |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Talk and question & answer session with ~70 members of the Radio Society of Great Britain on Space Weather at their annual convention in Milton Keynes. Audience enjoyed the talk and it resulted in a number of requests to present similar materials to local radio clubs |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2022 |
Description | Talk to IoP group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Talk to IoP group on space weather and space plasma physics. Talk sparked a lively question and discussion session immediately afterwards and resulted in further discussion over emails. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Talk to Macclesfield Lit & Phil Society |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Online talk and q&a session with local literary and philosophy society on space weather. Feedback from organiser said "It was really good to hear such a clear and detailed account of how the aurora happens. Several of our guests said that they had found it a helpful approach to hard stuff." |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Talk to school groups |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Talk given at school on the subject area of space plasma physics and space weather. Talk was given in person and the school and broadcast live to partner schools |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |