The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) - 1 year extension
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Abstract
Major changes are occurring across the North Atlantic climate system: in oceanic and atmospheric temperatures and circulation, in sea ice thickness and extent, and in key atmospheric constituents such as ozone, methane and particles known as aerosols. Many observed changes are unprecedented in instrumental records. Changes in the North Atlantic directly affect the UK's climate, weather and air quality, with major economic impacts on agriculture, fisheries, water, energy, transport and health. The North Atlantic also has global importance, since changes here drive changes in climate, hazardous weather and air quality further afield, such as in North America, Africa, and Asia.
The ACSIS extension is a 1 year continuation of an ongoing 5-year strategic research programme called ACSIS: the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study.
ACSIS brings together and exploits a wide range of capabilities and expertise in the UK environmental science community. Its goal is to enhance the UK's capability to detect, attribute (i.e. explain the causes of) and predict changes in the North Atlantic Climate System. ACSIS is delivering new understanding of the North Atlantic climate system by integrating new and old observations of atmospheric physics and chemistry, of the ocean state and of Arctic ice, complemented by detailed data analysis and state-of-the-art computer simulations. Observations are obtained from diverse sources including NERC's observational sites in the North Atlantic, satellite remote sensing and the NCAS FAAM aeroplane. The computer modelling component is providing simulations of the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice with unprecedented spatial detail.
The ACSIS extension will exploit advances made during the past 5 years to address specific new research questions which have arisen recently. It will investigate exciting evidence that changes in the climate of the North Atlantic/European region are much more predictable than was previously thought and will start to assess the impact of North Atlantic changes on the UK environment.
The ACSIS extension is a 1 year continuation of an ongoing 5-year strategic research programme called ACSIS: the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study.
ACSIS brings together and exploits a wide range of capabilities and expertise in the UK environmental science community. Its goal is to enhance the UK's capability to detect, attribute (i.e. explain the causes of) and predict changes in the North Atlantic Climate System. ACSIS is delivering new understanding of the North Atlantic climate system by integrating new and old observations of atmospheric physics and chemistry, of the ocean state and of Arctic ice, complemented by detailed data analysis and state-of-the-art computer simulations. Observations are obtained from diverse sources including NERC's observational sites in the North Atlantic, satellite remote sensing and the NCAS FAAM aeroplane. The computer modelling component is providing simulations of the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice with unprecedented spatial detail.
The ACSIS extension will exploit advances made during the past 5 years to address specific new research questions which have arisen recently. It will investigate exciting evidence that changes in the climate of the North Atlantic/European region are much more predictable than was previously thought and will start to assess the impact of North Atlantic changes on the UK environment.
Organisations
- University of Leeds (Lead Research Organisation)
- Meteorological Office UK (Collaboration)
- PLYMOUTH MARINE LABORATORY (Collaboration)
- British Geological Survey (Collaboration)
- NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE (Collaboration)
- UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY (Collaboration)
- National Centre for Earth Observation (Collaboration)
- British Antarctic Survey (Collaboration)
- Met Office (Project Partner)
Publications
Andersson T
(2022)
Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning
Andersson TR
(2021)
Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning.
in Nature communications
Antuña-Marrero J
(2021)
Recovery of the first ever multi-year lidar dataset of the stratospheric aerosol layer, from Lexington, MA, and Fairbanks, AK, January 1964 to July 1965
in Earth System Science Data
Baker A
(2021)
Historical Variability and Lifecycles of North Atlantic Midlatitude Cyclones Originating in the Tropics
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Bracegirdle T
(2021)
Early-winter North Atlantic low-level jet latitude biases in climate models: implications for simulated regional atmosphere-ocean linkages
in Environmental Research Letters
Chafik L
(2022)
Rapid Communication of Upper-Ocean Salinity Anomaly to Deep Waters of the Iceland Basin Indicates an AMOC Short-Cut
in Geophysical Research Letters
Clyne M
(2021)
Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Dong B
(2021)
Recent trends in summer atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic/European region: is there a role for anthropogenic aerosols?
in Journal of Climate
| Description | The ACSIS programme has produced a wide range of new insights into how the North Atlantic Climate System is changing under the influence of natural processes and climate change caused by human activities. The North Atlantic Ocean has warmed significantly, but there are important variations in the rate of warming from year to year and decade to decade, and also between different regions. Circulation patterns both in the atmosphere (i.e. winds) and in the ocean (currents) have also shown large variability. ACSIS research has identified the different factors and processes that govern this variability and also demonstrated the potential to predict some changes up to several years ahead. This capability could be very valuable for planning in many sectors that are sensitive to weather and climate events. Finally, ACSIS has also studied the changing composition of the atmosphere over the North Atlantic, and identified how human activities have caused major changes such as in the concentrations of ozone gas, and important pollutant. Key achievements are: 1. Advances in understanding the processes governing decadal variability in the North Atlantic Climate System. ACSIS provided a multivariate perspective that demonstrated coordinated changes across North Atlantic Climate System components: ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. This was an important part of delivering improved understanding of links between observed multi-decadal shifts in Atlantic sea-surface temperature (known as Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV)), and atmospheric circulation (troposphere and stratosphere), how climate models represent these links, and how they vary seasonally. ACSIS used climate models and observations to show that ocean dynamics connect changes in seawater density in the subpolar North Atlantic to the Atlantic-wide ocean circulation, impacting the amplitude and timing of AMV. These discoveries allow better prediction of AMV and its many climate impacts. 2. Advances in understanding the role of atmospheric aerosols in the North Atlantic Climate System By bringing together a highly multidisciplinary team, ACSIS advanced fundamental understanding and quantification of the multiple processes and causal linkages that connect anthropogenic aerosol (AA) precursor emissions (e.g. sulphur dioxide) to impacts on climate variables such as atmospheric temperatures and clouds, ocean heat content and circulation, and sea-ice extent. Key advances included: discovery of a new chemical species (HPMTF) involved in the oxidation of sulphur dioxide; quantification of the processes that govern the North Atlantic cloud and radiation response to AA emissions; and elucidation of a new mechanism via which AA emissions influence the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). 3. Advances in understanding the predictability of North Atlantic Climate and advances in prediction capabilities. ACSIS research contributed to important evidence that shows that the North Atlantic is much more predictable than previously thought, especially atmospheric circulation in winter on seasonal to decadal timescales. Furthermore, ACSIS has shown that higher predictability extends to summer on seasonal timescales, and has provided new insights into some of key mechanisms involved, including the roles of ocean-atmosphere interactions and of the stratosphere. ACSIS has also made advances in Arctic sea ice predictions and provided further evidence that changes in the North Atlantic can have world-wide influences with implications for predictability of global monsoons and climatic conditions over East Asia and the Pacific ocean. To help policy makers understand potential near-term changes in North Atlantic atmosphere and ocean circulation, and associated impacts and risks, ACSIS has developed innovative storylines of future changes in the jet stream and in regional sea level. |
| Exploitation Route | The Met Office is exploiting ACSIS findings to improve capabilities for modelling and prediction of climate and Earth System change, in support of government policy and planning needs. Predictions of regional climate change are increasingly important for information adaptation to climate change in many sectors. There are many opportunities to build on the achievements of the ACSIS programme. These include: (i) further analysis of the many observation-based datasets which quantify recent changes in the North Atlantic climate system; (ii) further analysis of the numerical simulations supported by ACSIS in particular high resolution ocean and coupled simulations; (iii) further research to understand the predictability of climate in the North Atlantic region; (iv) work to exploit ACSIS findings to build improved capabilities for seasonal and longer term climate predictions. |
| Sectors | Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| URL | https://sites.google.com/ncas.ac.uk/acsis/posters |
| Description | ACSIS has made significant contributions relevant to climate policy through its input to the UK's contribution to the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (in support of the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chage, AR6), especially through its evaluation, development and running of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1), and the evaluation of the Met Office physical climate model (HadGEM3-GC3.1). Several ACSIS scientists have contributed to the assessment of the current state of knowledge through their roles as lead or contributing authors or reviewers of the AR6, and ACSIS publications were included in the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Wider ACSIS impacts include: a major role in shaping a new World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change; contributions to the UK's Joint Marine Modelling Programme (JMMP); establishing a lasting multi-disciplinary community to focus on North Atlantic science and related areas.The legacy of ACSIS is assured by more than 250 scientific publications and by observational and model data sets stored long-term at CEDA (Archibald et al, in prep), and their continued use, including within the outward facing Met Office Climate Indicators webpage and in new LTS-M programmes, such as CANARI. ACSIS science is also contributing to advances in seasonal-to-decadal prediction. Advances made in understanding the fundamental ocean-atmosphere mechanisms that shape variations in the climate of the North Atlantic region on seasonal and longer timescales are being used to inform development of seasonal-to-decadal prediction capabilities, in particular those at the Met Office. The World Meteorological Organization has recently begun to produce a regular 'annual-to-decadal climate update'. These reports are freely available and are read by all WMO prediction centres world-wide. ACSIS has contributed directly to the first report and will build on this contribution in the upcoming years. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
| Sector | Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Co-author of Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership on "Climate change impacts on ocean circulation relevant to the UK and Ireland" |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| URL | https://www.mccip.org.uk/ocean-circulation |
| Description | Explaining and Predicting the Ocean Conveyor (EPOC) |
| Amount | € 9,549,760 (EUR) |
| Organisation | European Commission |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | European Union (EU) |
| Start | 09/2022 |
| End | 10/2027 |
| Description | UK National Climate Science Partnership |
| Organisation | British Antarctic Survey |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | NCAS has joined together with the other NERC Centres and the Met Office to form a new partnership - the UK National Climate Science Partnership - focused on climate science for solutions. A letter of intent has been signed by all the parties and a Vision Statement agreed. Announcement of the partnership was made by the BEIS CSA Paul Monks at COP26 in Glasgow. NCAS played a leading role in bringing about these developments, working particularly closely with NOC, UKCEH and the Met Office. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The UKNCSP Vision Statement was developed by NCAS, NOC and UKCEH working with the Met Office. All the NERC Centres and the Met Office have signed the letter of intent and supported the announcement at COP26. The partners are currently working together to agree plans to develop the partnership and maximise its benefits to the UK. |
| Impact | Announcement at COP26: https://www.ukri.org/news/uk-researchers-join-forces-to-advance-scientific-climate-solutions/ The founding partners span the full range of environmental science. An important goal of the partnership is to build wider multi-disciplinary partnership to enable climate solutions. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | UK National Climate Science Partnership |
| Organisation | British Geological Survey |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | NCAS has joined together with the other NERC Centres and the Met Office to form a new partnership - the UK National Climate Science Partnership - focused on climate science for solutions. A letter of intent has been signed by all the parties and a Vision Statement agreed. Announcement of the partnership was made by the BEIS CSA Paul Monks at COP26 in Glasgow. NCAS played a leading role in bringing about these developments, working particularly closely with NOC, UKCEH and the Met Office. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The UKNCSP Vision Statement was developed by NCAS, NOC and UKCEH working with the Met Office. All the NERC Centres and the Met Office have signed the letter of intent and supported the announcement at COP26. The partners are currently working together to agree plans to develop the partnership and maximise its benefits to the UK. |
| Impact | Announcement at COP26: https://www.ukri.org/news/uk-researchers-join-forces-to-advance-scientific-climate-solutions/ The founding partners span the full range of environmental science. An important goal of the partnership is to build wider multi-disciplinary partnership to enable climate solutions. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | UK National Climate Science Partnership |
| Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | NCAS has joined together with the other NERC Centres and the Met Office to form a new partnership - the UK National Climate Science Partnership - focused on climate science for solutions. A letter of intent has been signed by all the parties and a Vision Statement agreed. Announcement of the partnership was made by the BEIS CSA Paul Monks at COP26 in Glasgow. NCAS played a leading role in bringing about these developments, working particularly closely with NOC, UKCEH and the Met Office. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The UKNCSP Vision Statement was developed by NCAS, NOC and UKCEH working with the Met Office. All the NERC Centres and the Met Office have signed the letter of intent and supported the announcement at COP26. The partners are currently working together to agree plans to develop the partnership and maximise its benefits to the UK. |
| Impact | Announcement at COP26: https://www.ukri.org/news/uk-researchers-join-forces-to-advance-scientific-climate-solutions/ The founding partners span the full range of environmental science. An important goal of the partnership is to build wider multi-disciplinary partnership to enable climate solutions. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | UK National Climate Science Partnership |
| Organisation | National Centre for Earth Observation |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | NCAS has joined together with the other NERC Centres and the Met Office to form a new partnership - the UK National Climate Science Partnership - focused on climate science for solutions. A letter of intent has been signed by all the parties and a Vision Statement agreed. Announcement of the partnership was made by the BEIS CSA Paul Monks at COP26 in Glasgow. NCAS played a leading role in bringing about these developments, working particularly closely with NOC, UKCEH and the Met Office. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The UKNCSP Vision Statement was developed by NCAS, NOC and UKCEH working with the Met Office. All the NERC Centres and the Met Office have signed the letter of intent and supported the announcement at COP26. The partners are currently working together to agree plans to develop the partnership and maximise its benefits to the UK. |
| Impact | Announcement at COP26: https://www.ukri.org/news/uk-researchers-join-forces-to-advance-scientific-climate-solutions/ The founding partners span the full range of environmental science. An important goal of the partnership is to build wider multi-disciplinary partnership to enable climate solutions. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | UK National Climate Science Partnership |
| Organisation | National Oceanography Centre |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | NCAS has joined together with the other NERC Centres and the Met Office to form a new partnership - the UK National Climate Science Partnership - focused on climate science for solutions. A letter of intent has been signed by all the parties and a Vision Statement agreed. Announcement of the partnership was made by the BEIS CSA Paul Monks at COP26 in Glasgow. NCAS played a leading role in bringing about these developments, working particularly closely with NOC, UKCEH and the Met Office. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The UKNCSP Vision Statement was developed by NCAS, NOC and UKCEH working with the Met Office. All the NERC Centres and the Met Office have signed the letter of intent and supported the announcement at COP26. The partners are currently working together to agree plans to develop the partnership and maximise its benefits to the UK. |
| Impact | Announcement at COP26: https://www.ukri.org/news/uk-researchers-join-forces-to-advance-scientific-climate-solutions/ The founding partners span the full range of environmental science. An important goal of the partnership is to build wider multi-disciplinary partnership to enable climate solutions. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | UK National Climate Science Partnership |
| Organisation | Plymouth Marine Laboratory |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | NCAS has joined together with the other NERC Centres and the Met Office to form a new partnership - the UK National Climate Science Partnership - focused on climate science for solutions. A letter of intent has been signed by all the parties and a Vision Statement agreed. Announcement of the partnership was made by the BEIS CSA Paul Monks at COP26 in Glasgow. NCAS played a leading role in bringing about these developments, working particularly closely with NOC, UKCEH and the Met Office. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The UKNCSP Vision Statement was developed by NCAS, NOC and UKCEH working with the Met Office. All the NERC Centres and the Met Office have signed the letter of intent and supported the announcement at COP26. The partners are currently working together to agree plans to develop the partnership and maximise its benefits to the UK. |
| Impact | Announcement at COP26: https://www.ukri.org/news/uk-researchers-join-forces-to-advance-scientific-climate-solutions/ The founding partners span the full range of environmental science. An important goal of the partnership is to build wider multi-disciplinary partnership to enable climate solutions. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | UK National Climate Science Partnership |
| Organisation | UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | NCAS has joined together with the other NERC Centres and the Met Office to form a new partnership - the UK National Climate Science Partnership - focused on climate science for solutions. A letter of intent has been signed by all the parties and a Vision Statement agreed. Announcement of the partnership was made by the BEIS CSA Paul Monks at COP26 in Glasgow. NCAS played a leading role in bringing about these developments, working particularly closely with NOC, UKCEH and the Met Office. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The UKNCSP Vision Statement was developed by NCAS, NOC and UKCEH working with the Met Office. All the NERC Centres and the Met Office have signed the letter of intent and supported the announcement at COP26. The partners are currently working together to agree plans to develop the partnership and maximise its benefits to the UK. |
| Impact | Announcement at COP26: https://www.ukri.org/news/uk-researchers-join-forces-to-advance-scientific-climate-solutions/ The founding partners span the full range of environmental science. An important goal of the partnership is to build wider multi-disciplinary partnership to enable climate solutions. |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | ACSIS Final Science Conference: The Changing North Atlantic Climate System and Its Importance for the UK |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The ACSIS final conference invited stakeholders from UK government and related bodies (e.g. UK Climate Change Committee) |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Development of Science Plan for World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | As Co-chair of the World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change I co-led the development of the international Science Plan |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.wcrp-climate.org/epesc |
| Description | Member of Editorial Board for 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2022, presented at COP27 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The 10 New Insights in Climate Science series is an annual synthesis highlighting essential advances in climate change research, from natural and social sciences, with high policy relevance. The report has been launched every year since 2017 at the climate COP, with participation of the UNFCCC Executive Secretary. This joint initiative of Future Earth, The Earth League, and The World Climate Research Programme, is a collective effort to support the diffusion of the most relevant and up-to-date climate change science to policymakers, negotiators, and the general public. See: https://10insightsclimate.science/ |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://10insightsclimate.science/ |
| Description | Panel member at COP26 session on the future of climate modelling |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The session on the future of climate modelling was held in the Science Pavillion in COP26 in Glasgow and also live streamed worldwide. I contributed my perspective and contributed to the Q&A. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate/cop/science-pavilion |