UKESM 1 Year Extension
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Abstract
Global climate change is one of the leading environmental threats facing mankind. To develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies requires accurate projections of the future state of the Earth's climate. To address this, we develop and use Global Climate Models (GCMs) that describe the main physical processes in the coupled climate system. These models are integrated forwards in simulated time, from a pre-industrial period to present-day, forced by observed estimates of key greenhouse gases, aerosols and land-use. The models are then continued into the future forced by a range of greenhouse gas, aerosol and land-use scenarios. Each of the model future climates can then compared to the simulated present-day climates. This analysis results in an ensemble of climate change estimates that can be used to assess the socio-economic and ecological impacts of the simulated changes and aid in the development of mitigation and adaptation policies.
GCMs have been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs), as we successfully did in the UKESM LTSM, where UKESM1 was developed from the coupled physical model, HadGEM3-GC3.1. A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle supporting the analysis of both physical climate change and potential changes in the efficacy by which anthropogenic emitted CO2 is taken up by natural carbon reservoirs. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs may result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere to warm the planet. Accurate estimates of the future evolution of both the global climate system and the carbon cycle are therefore crucial for getting a clear picture of the future risks humanity faces, as well as for developing mitigation actions (that typically target the efficacy of carbon uptake) to keep global warming below dangerous levels.
To address this need, we developed the 1st UK Earth system model (UKESM1) and ran it for a large suite of experiments in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). UKESM1 is the most advanced Earth system model in the world today and as well as a coupled physical climate model, includes interactive treatment of (i) the global carbon cycle and dynamic vegetation, (ii) atmospheric chemistry and aerosols and (iii) models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We have run a large (19 member) ensemble of historical simulations with UKESM1 (1850 to 2015) and extended a number of these into the future (2015 to 2100) following 7 different future emission pathways from CMIP6 scenarioMIP. In this extension, we propose a detailed analysis of the UKESM1 historical ensemble and the suite of scenarioMIP projections. Our aims are (i) to better understand what drives observed historical Earth system change and evaluate how well UKESM1 represents these changes, (ii) with the knowledge from (i), analyze simulated Earth system change in the UKESM1 scenarioMIP ensemble, combining this with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, to document the range of simulated changes across the coupled Earth system over the coming century. Two primary emphases in this analysis will be; (a) to document and contrast regional changes at different levels of global mean warming (e.g. 2C or 3C) and (b) where possible, to constrain the various coupled feedbacks simulated by UKESM1 that drive the magnitude of future change. In addition, we will continue to provide support to the large UKESM user and model development community and will hold two consultation workshops with (i) UK climate policymakers and (ii) UK climate impacts researchers. In these workshops we will present our findings on predicted future Earth system change and begin a two-way dialogue on how UK Earth system modeling can best support the needs of these two groups, developing future collaborations based on mutual understanding of each group's needs and goals.
GCMs have been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs), as we successfully did in the UKESM LTSM, where UKESM1 was developed from the coupled physical model, HadGEM3-GC3.1. A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle supporting the analysis of both physical climate change and potential changes in the efficacy by which anthropogenic emitted CO2 is taken up by natural carbon reservoirs. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs may result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere to warm the planet. Accurate estimates of the future evolution of both the global climate system and the carbon cycle are therefore crucial for getting a clear picture of the future risks humanity faces, as well as for developing mitigation actions (that typically target the efficacy of carbon uptake) to keep global warming below dangerous levels.
To address this need, we developed the 1st UK Earth system model (UKESM1) and ran it for a large suite of experiments in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). UKESM1 is the most advanced Earth system model in the world today and as well as a coupled physical climate model, includes interactive treatment of (i) the global carbon cycle and dynamic vegetation, (ii) atmospheric chemistry and aerosols and (iii) models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We have run a large (19 member) ensemble of historical simulations with UKESM1 (1850 to 2015) and extended a number of these into the future (2015 to 2100) following 7 different future emission pathways from CMIP6 scenarioMIP. In this extension, we propose a detailed analysis of the UKESM1 historical ensemble and the suite of scenarioMIP projections. Our aims are (i) to better understand what drives observed historical Earth system change and evaluate how well UKESM1 represents these changes, (ii) with the knowledge from (i), analyze simulated Earth system change in the UKESM1 scenarioMIP ensemble, combining this with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, to document the range of simulated changes across the coupled Earth system over the coming century. Two primary emphases in this analysis will be; (a) to document and contrast regional changes at different levels of global mean warming (e.g. 2C or 3C) and (b) where possible, to constrain the various coupled feedbacks simulated by UKESM1 that drive the magnitude of future change. In addition, we will continue to provide support to the large UKESM user and model development community and will hold two consultation workshops with (i) UK climate policymakers and (ii) UK climate impacts researchers. In these workshops we will present our findings on predicted future Earth system change and begin a two-way dialogue on how UK Earth system modeling can best support the needs of these two groups, developing future collaborations based on mutual understanding of each group's needs and goals.
Publications
Adzhar R
(2022)
MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields tree cover needs calibrating in tropical savannas
in Biogeosciences
Baker C
(2022)
Biological Carbon Pump Sequestration Efficiency in the North Atlantic: A Leaky or a Long-Term Sink?
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Bhoumik G
(2022)
Comparative multifractal analysis of methane gas concentration time series in India and regions within India
in Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy
Bruhn D
(2022)
Nocturnal plant respiration is under strong non-temperature control.
in Nature communications
Feng L
(2022)
Tropical methane emissions explain large fraction of recent changes in global atmospheric methane growth rate.
in Nature communications
Folberth G
(2022)
Description and Evaluation of an Emission-Driven and Fully Coupled Methane Cycle in UKESM1
in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
France JL
(2022)
Very large fluxes of methane measured above Bolivian seasonal wetlands.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Lu X
(2022)
Methane emissions in the United States, Canada, and Mexico: evaluation of national methane emission inventories and 2010-2017 sectoral trends by inverse analysis of in situ (GLOBALVIEWplus CH<sub>4</sub> ObsPack) and satellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Nakhavali M
(2022)
Representation of the phosphorus cycle in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (vn5.5_JULES-CNP)
in Geoscientific Model Development
Title | Climate video storyboards |
Description | Preparations for the COP26 public exhibition included the development of storyboard movies: video-shorts explaining our work on Earth system modelling using UKESM1 and the implications of our results for projected future changes in global temperatures and other climate variables. The storyboards included brief presentations focused on specific areas such as air quality or the Greenland ice sheet. Storyboards were helpful in engaging with a public audience and using the imagery and graphs to explain how the world could change under global warming. |
Type Of Art | Film/Video/Animation |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Impact | At COP26, we had good conversations with visitors on a wide variety of climate-related topics, ranging from the effect of climate change on avian malaria to plastic in the oceans. Given the large range of backgrounds and interests of the attendees, there was a reasonable level of general interest in our work on Earth system modelling. We will continue to use the storyboards and improve them with audio narratives. |
URL | https://ukesm.ac.uk/cop26/ |
Title | How satellite data is helping us fight climate change |
Description | UKRI video developed for the UKRI exhibition stand at COP26 to show how observations and Earth system modelling contribute to understanding climate change. Features several of the UKESM team. |
Type Of Art | Film/Video/Animation |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Impact | The video was played during the COP26. On Youtube, the video has had 350 views. |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=uuBWw4gRbeM |
Title | Images of climate innovation - Four possible climates in 2100 for COP26 Exhibition |
Description | 'Four possible climates in 2100' was our contribution to the COP26 Universities Network's Images of Climate Innovation exhibition. This was a showcase illustrating the creativity of UK researchers who are developing new ways to reduce greenhouse emissions, adapt life to the changing climate and help the world to better understand the nature of climate change and its impacts. Besides having an online presence, the exhibition was on display during COP26 at the University of Strathclyde's Ramshorn Theatre. We contributed the image "Four possible climates in 2100" which displays four possibilities for temperatures at the Earth's surface in 2100, as calculated by UKESM1 using four scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions. It shows that warming increases as emissions levels rise, and is not distributed evenly around the world (specifically, there is a marked amplification of surface warming in the Arctic). |
Type Of Art | Image |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Impact | Not known |
URL | https://www.strath.ac.uk/workwithus/cop26/innovationshowcase/behindthescience/fourpossibleclimatesin... |
Description | We have developed and released for use to the UKRI-NERC community a new and improved version of the UK Earth system model (UKESM1.1). This model displays a signficantly improved representation of the observed past climate over the 20th and 21st centuries |
Exploitation Route | UKESM1.1 will be used by a large number of UKRI-NERC researchers to pursue their own research into the functioning and future stability of the Earth system |
Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice |
URL | http://ukesm.ac.uk |
Description | Future climate projections made with the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) provided data and knowledge to support planning around climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation. The model formed the UK's ESM contribution to the international coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6). In addition, UKESM1 was selected as one of five core CMIP6 models for the international ISIMIP phase 3 project: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Scientific papers based on UKESM1 simulations formed an important contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - 6th Assessment Report (AR6). The IPCC provides policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications, and potential future risks, as well putting forward adaptation and mitigation options. UKESM1 simulations and resulting data from a range of CMIP6 simulations were documented in a special issue of the journal JAMES: Journal of Advances in Modelling the Earth System, called; The UK Earth System Models for CMIP6 |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | A UK contribution to CMIP6 |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in systematic reviews |
Description | A UK contribution to CMIP6 |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in systematic reviews |
Description | Teach-in on Earth system modelling and predicting climate change with Defra |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | (ESM2025) - Earth system models for the future |
Amount | € 11,333,275 (EUR) |
Funding ID | 101003536 |
Organisation | European Commission |
Sector | Public |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Start | 06/2021 |
End | 05/2025 |
Title | UKESM1.1 |
Description | A new configuration of the UK Earth system model |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The model UKESM1.1 has been released for use by all interested UKRI-NERC researchers |
Title | UKESM1.1 |
Description | A new configuration of the UK Earth system model |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | UKESM1.1 is now openly available to any UKRI-NERC researcher |
Description | Final General Assembly for the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO |
Organisation | Météo France |
Country | France |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | UKESM scientists organized and were involved in the final General Assembly for the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO. |
Collaborator Contribution | UKESM was a key component of the EU funded CRESCENDO project. CRESCENDO runs from 2015 to March 2021 and brings together 7 European Earth System Modelling (ESM) teams and 3 European Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) groups, with experts in ESM performance evaluation, ESM future projection analysis, climate impacts, regional downscaling and science communication, representing 10 European countries. |
Impact | 350 publications were generated through the CRESCENDO project from all partners. Substantial improvements to European Earth System Models |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Final General Assembly for the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO |
Organisation | University of Exeter |
Department | College of Engineering, Mathematics & Physical Sciences |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | UKESM scientists organized and were involved in the final General Assembly for the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO. |
Collaborator Contribution | UKESM was a key component of the EU funded CRESCENDO project. CRESCENDO runs from 2015 to March 2021 and brings together 7 European Earth System Modelling (ESM) teams and 3 European Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) groups, with experts in ESM performance evaluation, ESM future projection analysis, climate impacts, regional downscaling and science communication, representing 10 European countries. |
Impact | 350 publications were generated through the CRESCENDO project from all partners. Substantial improvements to European Earth System Models |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | COP26 Public Engagement in Glasgow |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | UKESM was invited to participate in a number of activities related to COP26, which included a presence in the COP26 Green Zone. This was the part of the conference which was open to the public, and was housed in the Glasgow Science Centre. The Green Zone featured over 200 events and 100 exhibitors, including the COP26 Universities Network and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). UKESM was on the COP26 Universities Network stand on 8 November, and on the UKRI stand on 9 November. The Team developed a series of climate storyboards for use at the COP26 and 2 climate change quizzes as ways to engage a broad public. The UKRI stand raised the profile of Earth System modelling with several senior research and policy people. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukesm.ac.uk/portfolio-item/ukesm-at-cop26/ |
Description | Climate Teach-In to DEFRA |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The activity provide climate policymakers in the DEFRA department of UK government with an overview of how Earth system and climate models are developed and used |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Engaging Users: Climate Impacts Researchers |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | UKESM held a workshop in December 2021 that brought together UKESM scientists with UK-based impacts researchers in the domains : water resources, wildfires, climate and air quality, marine ecosystems and sea level rise. The workshop started to identify key simulations and data required to support future impact assessments in the UK. This will deliver new information and collaborations to expand the level of UKESM support to UK research and provides a stepping stone to the research in our new LTSM, TerraFIRMA. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Engaging directly with children through the 'I'm a Scientist - stay at home' platform |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Several engagements with schools by UKESM scientists through the online chat facility through 'I'm a Scientist, Stay at home'. Children asked questions about what we do in our jobs, what working life was like, what education routes we had taken and about climate change in particular. Really good feedback received from the children who came from different backgrounds. this engagement helped us think about the sort of information we could provide for these age groups. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Lectures to university undergraduate students in Artificial Intelligence |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
Results and Impact | This was 2 lectures to introduce Earth system modeling to undergraduate students at Birmingham University studying Artificial Intelligence |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | UKESM General Assembly 2021 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | The meeting provided an update on progress for the UKESM project, a look forward for the final year of the extension of the project and a series of UKESM related science talks. Talks about the near term plans for development of the UK Earth System model informed a wide range of academic users about developments. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukesm.ac.uk/ukesm-general-assembly-2021/ |
Description | UKESM presentation to water sector via the Future Water Association |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Presentation on climate impacts and their relevance to the water sector. Led to follow up connection with climate services/impacts colleagues in the Met Office. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |