CANARI: Climate change in the Arctic-North Atlantic Region and Impacts on the UK
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Abstract
Extreme weather events can have substantial impacts. For instance: the extensive UK flooding during the stormy winters of 2013/14 and 2015/16 resulted in £3 billion of damage to property and livelihoods. During the summers of 2017, 2018, and 2019, European heatwaves resulted in over 2,500 excess deaths in the UK. Wind-storms can also cause substantial impacts; the extreme winds in Storm Ciara in Feb 2020 resulted in £1.4 billion of insured losses across Europe. Climate change could also impact on the Northwest European shelf seas, affecting the sustainable management of marine resources such as fisheries. Consequently, adapting to climate change and building resilience are high priorities for the UK Government, businesses and society. However, projections of the impacts of climate change on the UK remain subject to very large uncertainties. Particularly relevant are the next few decades, an important timeframe for climate change adaptation. There is an urgent need to understand whether current management strategies and climate adaptation plans are adequate in the light of potential changes to the UK's weather, climate and shelf seas.
The weather and climate of the UK are substantially determined by the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic. Many factors influence these circulation patterns but of particular concern for risk assessment is the potential for rapid or disruptive change. A crucial legacy of the Covid-19 pandemic is enhanced awareness of rapid, disruptive changes leading to cascading impacts and exposing systemic risks. The Arctic exerts strong, long-range influence over UK and European weather and climate by its controls on atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms such as the North Atlantic storm track, so that one of the most likely causes of disruptive regional change is the ongoing rapid Arctic warming, at twice the global mean rate. A major symptom of rapid Arctic warming is its progressive loss of sea ice. However, current climate models underestimate the observed decline of September sea ice area. This is likely due to models lacking or poorly representing key physical processes, eg, the low resolution of current models results in unrealistically weak oceanic boundary currents and atmospheric storms. This highlights the urgent need to better understand the processes that might result in rapid climate change, and the potential for early warning of the impacts of such changes on the UK.
To address these needs CANARI aims to advance understanding of the impacts on the UK arising from climate variability and change in the Arctic-North Atlantic region, with a focus on extreme weather and the potential for rapid, disruptive change. It will achieve this by bringing together the expertise and capabilities of NERC's Research Centres with aligned activities in the UK Met Office to develop new high-resolution coupled model ensembles, improve process-based understanding and provide new hazard and impact modelling. CANARI will enable the UK to play an internationally-leading role in addressing the challenges of understanding regional climate change, and to provide detailed information about impacts on the UK.
CANARI will make substantial contributions internationally, e.g. to the World Climate Research and the World Weather Research Programmes and to IPCC AR7. CANARI will provide new tools, simulations, and collaborative opportunities for the wider research community. CANARI has been co-developed with major stakeholders, including UK Government departments (Defra, BEIS, CCC) and water, health, and finance sectors (EA, Public Health England, CGFI, OASIS). Working with our partners will enable CANARI to deliver Environmental Solutions and to address specific priorities of the NERC Delivery Plan. The legacy of CANARI will be a step-change in the understanding of regional climate change and its impacts on the UK, enabling more resilient adaptation pathways.
The weather and climate of the UK are substantially determined by the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic. Many factors influence these circulation patterns but of particular concern for risk assessment is the potential for rapid or disruptive change. A crucial legacy of the Covid-19 pandemic is enhanced awareness of rapid, disruptive changes leading to cascading impacts and exposing systemic risks. The Arctic exerts strong, long-range influence over UK and European weather and climate by its controls on atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms such as the North Atlantic storm track, so that one of the most likely causes of disruptive regional change is the ongoing rapid Arctic warming, at twice the global mean rate. A major symptom of rapid Arctic warming is its progressive loss of sea ice. However, current climate models underestimate the observed decline of September sea ice area. This is likely due to models lacking or poorly representing key physical processes, eg, the low resolution of current models results in unrealistically weak oceanic boundary currents and atmospheric storms. This highlights the urgent need to better understand the processes that might result in rapid climate change, and the potential for early warning of the impacts of such changes on the UK.
To address these needs CANARI aims to advance understanding of the impacts on the UK arising from climate variability and change in the Arctic-North Atlantic region, with a focus on extreme weather and the potential for rapid, disruptive change. It will achieve this by bringing together the expertise and capabilities of NERC's Research Centres with aligned activities in the UK Met Office to develop new high-resolution coupled model ensembles, improve process-based understanding and provide new hazard and impact modelling. CANARI will enable the UK to play an internationally-leading role in addressing the challenges of understanding regional climate change, and to provide detailed information about impacts on the UK.
CANARI will make substantial contributions internationally, e.g. to the World Climate Research and the World Weather Research Programmes and to IPCC AR7. CANARI will provide new tools, simulations, and collaborative opportunities for the wider research community. CANARI has been co-developed with major stakeholders, including UK Government departments (Defra, BEIS, CCC) and water, health, and finance sectors (EA, Public Health England, CGFI, OASIS). Working with our partners will enable CANARI to deliver Environmental Solutions and to address specific priorities of the NERC Delivery Plan. The legacy of CANARI will be a step-change in the understanding of regional climate change and its impacts on the UK, enabling more resilient adaptation pathways.
Publications
Ascott M
(2024)
Regional scale evaluation of nitrate fluctuations in groundwater using cluster analysis and standardised hydrometeorological indices
in Journal of Hydrology
Bacon S
(2022)
Arctic Ocean Boundary Exchanges: A Review
in Oceanography
Bacon S
(2023)
Arctic sea ice, ocean, and climate evolution.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Barker L
(2024)
An appraisal of the severity of the 2022 drought and its impacts
in Weather
Barton B
(2022)
An Ice-Ocean Model Study of the Mid-2000s Regime Change in the Barents Sea
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Bloomfield K
(2023)
Towards a General Monitoring System for Terrestrial Primary Production: A Test Spanning the European Drought of 2018
in Remote Sensing
Bröcker J
(2023)
A statistical perspective on the signal-to-noise paradox
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Chevuturi A
(2024)
Mapping UK Drought Teleconnections from Ocean to Land
Doane-Solomon R
(2023)
The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts
in Atmospheric Science Letters
Falkena S
(2023)
A Bayesian Approach to Atmospheric Circulation Regime Assignment
in Journal of Climate
Description | Participation in Government Chief Scientists Roundtable meeting on drought |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Impact | Jamie Hannaford provided expert input to this forum, commisioned in wake of 2022 drought. Included Chief scientist, and CSs from EA, Defra, Met Office and leading academics |
Description | EA Review on Stochastics and other methods for water resources planning |
Amount | £50,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Environment Agency |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2022 |
End | 09/2023 |
Description | EA drought reviews |
Amount | £25,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Environment Agency |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2022 |
End | 03/2023 |
Description | IndicatoRs to Impacts for drought Surveillance and management (IRIS) |
Amount | £101,179 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/X012727/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2023 |
End | 12/2025 |
Title | Regional Arctic model NOC FRONTIER ARC36 NEMO-SI3 |
Description | Regional Arctic model NOC FRONTIER ARC36 NEMO-SI3 is set up and test stand-alone sea ice and sea ice-ocean coupled runs at 1/36deg (~1.3 km) are carried out. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | NOC FRONTIER ARC36 NEMO-SI3 code, configuration settings and first model outputs are on ARCHER-II; monthly-long tests with three rheology settings (aEVP, EAP and EAP-isotropic) are archived. |
Description | Collaboration with LTS-M BIOPOLE Programme |
Organisation | British Antarctic Survey |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | CANARI Large Ensemble Simulations planning: list of output variables from the ensembles is coordinated with LTS-M BIOPOLE (from CANARI: Reinhard, Len, Bablu; Yevgeny, Andrew Coward, David Schroeder) |
Collaborator Contribution | CANARI Large Ensemble Simulations planning: list of output variables from the ensembles is coordinated with LTS-M BIOPOLE (from BIOPOLE: Yevgeny, Emma Young and All-hands BIOPOLE input) |
Impact | CANARI Large Ensemble Simulations planning: list of output variables from the ensembles is coordinated with LTS-M BIOPOLE |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | Collaboration with LTS-M BIOPOLE Programme |
Organisation | National Oceanography Centre |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | CANARI Large Ensemble Simulations planning: list of output variables from the ensembles is coordinated with LTS-M BIOPOLE (from CANARI: Reinhard, Len, Bablu; Yevgeny, Andrew Coward, David Schroeder) |
Collaborator Contribution | CANARI Large Ensemble Simulations planning: list of output variables from the ensembles is coordinated with LTS-M BIOPOLE (from BIOPOLE: Yevgeny, Emma Young and All-hands BIOPOLE input) |
Impact | CANARI Large Ensemble Simulations planning: list of output variables from the ensembles is coordinated with LTS-M BIOPOLE |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | Article in The Conversation online magazine on why there were so few Named storms in the UK during the winter of 22/23 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | An article on "Why the UK has only had one named storm so far this winter" was published in The Conversation online magazine in Feb 2022. Typically, articles in The Conversation are view approx. 10k times. A number of inquires from the general public were made about the information it the article. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | https://theconversation.com/why-the-uk-has-only-had-one-named-storm-so-far-this-winter-an-expert-exp... |
Description | Article in the Scotsman newspaper on Storms and the COP27 meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Invited article on |Climate change: Damage from increasingly intense storms shows why cutting carbon emissions is imperative" which was published in the Scotsman just before the COP27 meeting in 2022. The Scotsman has print circulation of 14k people. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/climate-change-damage-from-increasingly-intense-sto... |
Description | Briefing to CIWEM Water Resources Panel on the 2022 drought. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Expert panel and presentation at the Chartered Institute of Water and Environmental Management |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Media interviews given during the extreme sumer heatwave of 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | During the summer heatwave of 2022 there was a large demand from the public for comment on what was causing the extreme temperature and were they related to climate changes. Prof Len Shaffrey gave video interviews on the summer 2022 heatwave and climate change to Mashable, ITV Meridan, and Beijing News. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://mashable.com/video/heatwave-wildfires-europe-climate-global-warming-faster |
Description | Poster at UK Conference on Environmental Data Science, Lancaster, 5-7Jul2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Poster on the 'drivers of extreme droughts' work by Amulya Chevuturi |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation at the 14th British Hydrological Society Symposium, Lancaster, 12 - 14th Sept 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Talk on the future changes in spatial coherence of river flow and groundwater drought, a collaboration between UKCEH and BGS. Part-funded by CANARI as well as a Strategic Priorities Fund project (eFLaG) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation at the 14th British Hydrological Society Symposium, Lancaster, 12 - 14th Sept 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Talk on the 'drivers of extreme droughts' work by Amulya Chevuturi |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation at the UK Hydrological Outlooks cross-partner science meeting, April 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Talk on the 'drivers of extreme droughts' work by Amulya Chevuturi at this cross-partner meeting for the Hydrological Outlooks, invloving UKCEH, BGS, Met Office, EA, SEPA, NRW and DfID (Northern Ireland) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation at the UKCEH Conference, November 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Talk on the 'drivers of extreme droughts' work by Amulya Chevuturi |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Science Media Centre briefing to journalists on the 2022 drought |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Press briefing at the Science Media Centre on the severity of the 2022 drought in August 2022 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |