Facilitating Stochastic Simulation for UK Climate Resilience

Weather generators are tools that simulate realistic sequences of climate patterns based on statistical methods incorporating randomness. This means that they can be described as "stochastic", i.e. they can generate a wide range of possible patterns (or realisations) of precipitation, temperature and other variables in space and time. This is a very useful capability, given that weather is highly variable and we need to be prepared for different sequences and types of extreme events.

Weather generators are a vital tool for building climate resilience, as they bridge the gap between climate models and applications. Climate models are slow to run, such that only a limited number of realisations of future climates are available, especially when using high resolution models. Weather generators are much faster and so offer a means of better sampling climate variability and extremes, while also downscaling model projections to locally relevant scales. However, it is difficult for practitioners to make the best use of weather generators in many real-world projects, such as assessments of changing flood risks. Substantial issues remain in the acceptance, usability, flexibility, performance and functionality of weather generators, despite their advanced capabilities. In addition, there are no standardised tools for incorporating state-of-the-art UK climate model projections (UKCP18) into weather generator simulations.

This project will therefore seek to facilitate wider use of weather generators in climate resilience applications. By working with industry-leading experts at JBA Consulting, the project will develop open software tools to expedite the setup, application and analysis of a leading weather generator, including in future scenarios based on cutting-edge UKCP18 projections. Evaluation, scoping and prototyping exercises in a live case study project of the Thames basin will improve understanding of tool limitations and identify potential improvements, while also facilitating knowledge exchange across sectors. Project workshops involving a range of external participants will enhance impact and dissemination amongst the wider UK climate resilience community.