Climate and carbon dioxide during the end-Permian hyperthermal biosphere crisis

Lead Research Organisation: University of Bristol
Department Name: Earth Sciences

Abstract

Predictions of future climate change are highly uncertain and unconstrained, with projected global average temperatures not seen for many millions of years . Past hyperthermal events, times of excessive global warming, can provide some answers. We propose to explore the end-Permian hyperthermal event which drove the largest mass extinction in Earth's history, 252 million years ago. Previous investigation has focused on the response and impact on the ocean, but less is known about consequences on land. Continental basins saw extensive accumulation of 'red beds', to an extent not seen at any other time, and temperatures rose as much as 15 degrees C above latest Permian levels. We aim to model climates sufficient to generate these terrestrial temperatures and the tropical 'dead zone' and thereby determine the amount of carbon dioxide injected into the atmosphere, as current estimates vary wildly from 856-2568 parts per million at the time of maximum crisis. Narrowing down these figures to a realistic, and testable level for the ancient crisis will allow us to tune the models for future climate change more accurately.
 
Description We find evidence for flashes oif unusually high temperatures at the Permian-Triassic boundary associated with the peak of extinction of life and associated (presumably) with flight of life from the tropics. Sedimentary evidence shows multiple such hyperthermal events through the Early Triassic and we are finalizing documentation of temperature, aridity-humidity, and impacts on landscape.
Exploitation Route This is an ongoing field of intensive study by many, and we are building on the evidence from terrestrial deposits, which show diffewrent impacts in different parts of the world. More work is needed to couple landscape impacts with regional climate change.
Sectors Education

Environment

 
Description The topic is of wide interest to thw wider community, and much of the work contributed to my recent book, 'Extinctions: How Life Survives, Adapts, Evolves' (Thames & Hudson 2023): https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extinctions-Life-Survives-Adapts-Evolves/dp/0500025460
First Year Of Impact 2023
Sector Education,Environment
 
Description Association of Science Education, Plenary talk (January 2024) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact The ASE conference is attended by >1000 science teachers each year, and I was invited to give the plenary lecture on linking science to current science teaching in schools, at all levels from junior to A-level.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://2024aseannualconference.sched.com/