Drought Risk Information for the African Finance Sector (DRIAFS)

Lead Research Organisation: UNIVERSITY OF READING
Department Name: Meteorology

Abstract

Drought poses an ongoing threat to over 200 million African farmers, trapping them in poverty and hindering national development. Financial services like weather-based index insurance (WII) and forecast-based finance (FbF) can offer a safety net by providing crop insurance or financial aid during anticipated drought periods, enabling farmers to purchase crucial resources like food, livestock, and seeds. However, data that accurately captures on-ground conditions is essential for effective implementation of WII and FbF. While TAMSAT rainfall-based products have been widely used (>3M farmers insured annually using TAMSAT data), they don't always align with farmers' experiences. TAMSAT's near real-time soil moisture monitoring and forecasting service could address this issue, provided there is sufficient knowledge and capacity within the financial sector to exploit the data.

The societal benefit of WII and FbF has, moreover, been hindered by a broader issue: the limited access to these services among households led by women. However, there is now a chance to bridge this gap. Although there remains a gender disparity in accessing traditional agricultural extension services, the gap in mobile phone access has narrowed. Inclusive mobile services hold the potential to broaden the availability of services for households led by women, thus reducing the inequality in accessing drought management tools and information. With the recent introduction of a new soil moisture dataset, there is an opportunity to refresh TAMSAT's data provision approach, aiming to enhance equitable access to all TAMSAT products.

Within DRIAFS, I will lead a programme of activities that will give the financial sector the knowledge, tools and confidence to allow them to develop and implement soil moisture-based financial services while providing female farmers with greater opportunities to access such services. For this, I will exploit TAMSAT's new operational rooting-depth soil moisture dataset. As lead developer of the TAMSAT soil moisture and rainfall monitoring services, I am ideally placed to undertake this work.

The transfer of knowledge will be underpinned by a practitioner-designed toolbox that will reduce technical challenges in accessing drought information. The full toolbox will enable financial service providers access to soil moisture and other drought data while a mobile-friendly version will give farmers the ability to access tailored drought information, allowing them to independently verify the drought data that the financial products are based on. The provision of better targeted financial products combined with easily accessible satellite-based drought information will increase trust between women farmers and the financial sector, thereby promoting buy-in of soil moisture-based financial services.

DRIAFS will partner with a group of financial service providers who are leaders within the African financial sector, some of whom I have established strong relationships with. I will bring to the project over a decade of experience in developing satellite-based climate services and experience in fostering collaborations within the finance, agricultural and humanitarian aid sectors in Africa. The depth of experience amongst the project partners on the gender gap in access to agricultural financial services will help guide the project to ensure that TAMSAT services better target female-led households and importantly, will develop my personal understanding of gender considerations which will benefit this project as well as future TAMSAT climate services.

In summary, DRIAFS will build the capacity of the African financial sector to develop equitable access products that robustly identify drought conditions. Partnership with leading practitioners in Africa will enable soil moisture-based financial products to rapidly reach market and provide cover to millions of farmers, resulting in fairer pay outs and better protection against drought.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Uptake of satellite-derived soil moisture by One Acre Fund to enhance agricultural drought insurance products across East Africa
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to new or improved professional practice
 
Title Africa soil moisture (Version 2.3.1) 
Description Africa-wide estimates of soil moisture and other water balance variables derived using the JULES land surface model and tuned to SMAP satellite soil moisture observations and forced with TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates from 1983-present at 0.25 degrees spatial resolution. Data are provided with a latency of up to 7 days. Version 2.3.1 is now compatible with the TAMSAT-ALERT probabilistic soil moisture forecasts (out to 160 days), ensuring users can seamlessly switch between the near-real time soil moisture estimates and the forecasts. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2025 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Full impacts of this dataset are yet to be realised, however there is increasing interest and usage of the dataset amongst African stakeholders. 
URL https://www.tamsat.org.uk
 
Title TAMSAT-ALERT API (Version 2.0) 
Description The TAMSAT-ALERT API (Version 2.0) is software (Python code) designed to allow users to easily generate tailored agricultural drought information for their crop growing season based on EOCIS/TAMSAT soil moisture estimates and forecasts. Such information can be used to better monitor and anticipate drought risk. 
Type Of Technology Webtool/Application 
Year Produced 2025 
Impact The TAMSAT-ALERT API now allows the Kenya Meteorological Department and East Africa's IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) to generate their own bespoke agricultural drought metrics. Such information is being used to better monitor drought risk over their regions of interest. 
 
Description Exploitation of satellite-based soil moisture within drought index insurance over East Africa 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Training workshop delivered to leaders in the Kenyan (and wider East Africa region) insurance sector on how TAMSAT's satellite-derived soil moisture dataset (developed within EOCIS) can be used by the index insurance sector to develop more robust drought insurance products than those based on satellite-derived rainfall, which are more commonly used. The event invoked a lot of interest as it provided an opportunity for key stakeholders in the finance sector to see how better agricultural drought financial services can be developed.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2025