Quantifying earthquake hazard and enhancing resilience in India

The population of India lives under the threat of large and destructive earthquakes. Recent studies by this project team have revealed that the spatial nature of this threat varies significantly more across India than was previously known: the earthquake-prone Himalayan mountain belt contains significant spatial variations in fault geometries, and 'intraplate' central India contains numerous previously-unrecognised active faults. These spatial variations in faulting are critical because they control the nature of the earthquake hazard faced by local populations. Understanding these variations is therefore the most effective way to build resilience to this hazard, which will vary between regions.



In this project we will build upon our previous research to transform our understanding of earthquake hazard in India, and enhance resilience to that hazard, by completing the following objectives:



Objective 1: we will use seismology, fieldwork, and Quaternary dating to establish the locations, characteristics, and future earthquake potential of a wide range of active faults in two case study regions of India, including both the Himalaya and intraplate regions. We will use this knowledge to establish new machine-learning-based methods of identifying and characterising active faults throughout the country, thereby allowing us to make a new national-scale assessment of earthquake potential.



Objective 2: we will use recently-developed methods of simulating the ground shaking generated by earthquakes, combined with our results from Objective 1, to map the spatial variability of potential future ground shaking. We will therefore be able to produce updated India-wide hazard and risk models and maps. This work will take account of the spatial variations in fault geometry and characteristics, which are not yet fully utilised in the standard hazard-mapping methodologies used by most nations and mapping agencies.



Objective 3: we will combine research into governance and decision making processes with workshops with stakeholders (e.g. Disaster Management Agencies, the Civil Service, and local communities), to transform our results from objective 2 into increased resilience. Because the nature of the earthquake hazard varies across India (in terms of the time intervals between significant earthquakes, and the ground shaking those events will produce), the most effective methods for increasing resilience will also vary between locations. By researching the processes of, and barriers to, community uptake and legislation, we will establish the most effective mitigation strategies for each style of active faulting. We will particularly focus on the flow of knowledge between state and community level, and the most effective ways to remove barriers from that process.



Our research therefore crosses the NERC and ESRC remits, improves our scientific understanding of earthquakes in India, and applies this knowledge to build resilience. To achieve this aim we have assembled a team that has a proven track record of working in India as part of long-term and successful India-UK collaborations. Our proposed work directly builds upon proof-of-concept studies undertaken as part of our ongoing India-UK collaborations, which have demonstrated our ability to undertake fundamental earthquake science in the country and to successfully engage with relevant stakeholders.



Our vision is that the methodologies we will develop and apply to the diverse range of active faults in India will represent a world-leading example of how to characterise earthquake hazard and enhance population resilience, which can then be replicated in the vast majority of earthquake-prone regions worldwide.