Centennial-scale relationship of sea-level variability with global temperature and CO2 concentrations
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Southampton
Department Name: Sch of Ocean and Earth Science
Abstract
Global ice volume is a key indicator of change in the global climate state, and - through its control on sea level - it is also of major concern to society. Before in-depth arguments about the future become possible, a better understanding is needed of the natural (pre-anthropogenic) involvement of ice-sheet processes in rapid climate change in a time resolution of about 1 century, with special focus on the relationships between CO2 concentrations, temperature and ice-volume/sea-level changes. To characterise those relationships, the present project will exploit our recently developed capacity to develop highly detailed, continuous records of sea-level change that cover an entire glacial cycle, for comparison with ice-core records of temperature and CO2 concentrations. We will thus address two fundamental questions: (Q1) What exactly was the fundamental nature of the pre-anthropogenic relationship between global ice volume/sea level, temperature and CO2 concentrations on the critical centennial timescales? and (Q2) How rapidly can the 'system' adapt to a change in forcing (i.e., to any given disequilibrium between climate forcing and sea level)? The project's answers on the societally relevant centennial timescales will provide natural context to the ongoing debate on future sea-level rise.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
Eelco Rohling (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Rohling E
(2012)
Sea Surface and High-Latitude Temperature Sensitivity to Radiative Forcing of Climate over Several Glacial Cycles
in Journal of Climate
Rohling E
(2013)
Quantitative assessment of glacial fluctuations in the level of Lake Lisan, Dead Sea rift
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Siddall M
(2010)
Patterns of millennial variability over the last 500 ka
in Climate of the Past
Stanford J
(2011)
Sea-level probability for the last deglaciation: A statistical analysis of far-field records
in Global and Planetary Change
Trommer G
(2011)
Sensitivity of Red Sea circulation to sea level and insolation forcing during the last interglacial
in Climate of the Past
Yu J
(2014)
Deep South Atlantic carbonate chemistry and increased interocean deep water exchange during last deglaciation
in Quaternary Science Reviews
Yu J
(2014)
Deep Ocean Carbonate Chemistry and Glacial-Interglacial Atmospheric CO2 Change
in Oceanography
Description | Work on this project has fostered a much clearer understanding of past sea-level changes over the last 520,000 years. The work also has developed significant spin-offs into other directions, such as study of past climate sensitivity. |
Exploitation Route | There is a large amount of interest in sea-level variability by coastal engineers, etc. Also public interest has been nurtured through extensive outreach at public talks and workshops. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | Media coverage of results, including Radio, TV, Newspapers, and public websites |
First Year Of Impact | 2007 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal |
Description | ACSA |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Talk and discussion sessions at Australian Curriculum devilment committee for Highschools, on environmental sustainability and climate change. Advice to Highschool curriculum development on potential Oceans and Climate topic, state of South Australia Multiple further requests for information Talks at Highschool in Canberra |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Earth Magazine |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | - |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
URL | http://www.earthmagazine.org/article/new-climate-record-challenges-ideas-about-recent-glaciations |
Description | Hobart Music for a warming World event, opening seminar |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I was asked to open the week-long event in Hobart, Tasmania, titled: "music for a warming world", with a 1 hr address on the basics of climate change, and how we may try to fix the problem. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.climatetasmania.org/wp-content/uploads/MWW_Tas_-Events_Flyer.pdf |
Description | Public seminar Mt Stromlo |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Public talk on climate and sea-level change awareness, explaining what is happening, how we know this, and what the future may bring |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Radio New zealand |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Sparked discussion afterward Enquiries from listeners for more information |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
URL | http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/nights/audio/2596497/starting-an-ice-age |
Description | The Conversation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Feedback comments Enquiries for further information and some discussion |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
URL | https://theconversation.com/why-ice-sheets-will-keep-melting-for-centuries-to-come-32171 |
Description | The Conversation - August'16 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | In this article I outline for a broad, general audience how emissions have already exceeded the total allowed for staying within the Paris climate targets. The Conversation has a global readership among professions and policy makers. Rohling, E.J., Without a longer-term view, the Paris Agreement will lock in warming for centuries. The Conversation, August 24, 2016. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://theconversation.com/without-a-longer-term-view-the-paris-agreement-will-lock-in-warming-for-... |