Using individual metabolism and body size to predict climate warming impacts on aquatic food webs
Lead Research Organisation:
Imperial College London
Department Name: Life Sciences
Abstract
Global warming is occurring at an unprecedented rate in human history, causing marked changes in the distribution and abundance of many species. Most research to date has focused on the impacts at the 'simpler' levels of biological organisation (e.g. polewards migrations of species populations; declining abundance of Polar bears in the Arctic) rather than on complex, multispecies ecosystems, where the effects of climate change are likely to be particularly far-reaching. Food webs are ecological networks that contain information on multiple species (the nodes in the web) and their interactions (links between nodes). As such, they represent how species are connected to one another within a given ecosystem, from the basal resources (e.g. phytoplankton) to the top predators (e.g. Polar bears, or humans in commercial fisheries). However, when food webs are subjected to environmental stress, such as climate warming, they can behave in ways that cannot be predicted from studying species in isolation. Further, although trophic interactions occur between individuals, most food webs have been constructed using coarser, species-averaged data. Consequently, a new, network-based perspective is needed to complement scientists' existing approaches to predicting the impacts of climate warming on the planet's ecosystems. We propose to address this knowledge gap, using aquatic food webs as model systems. Our principal focus will be on freshwaters, which, as 'islands in a terrestrial sea' are particularly vulnerable to environmental stress and for which we possess exceptionally detailed food web data. A key test of our approach will be performed in a unique, whole-ecosystem field experiment in which we will alter the temperature of Icelandic geothermal streams - because these streams are close to the Arctic Circle, they are likely to be among the first to respond to global warming, effectively acting as 'early-warning' sentinels of climate change. This project will form a collaborative link with a 4-year research grant awarded to our Project Partners characterising Icelandic food webs funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, which will maximise our cost-effectiveness (effectively reducing the cost to NERC by about 30%) since the data collected as part of the NSF project will feed into part of our proposal, in which we will parameterise and test new predictive models of food web structure and dynamics. In summary, we will: 1) develop a new approach, where we consider the role of individuals within food webs (rather than simply using species populations as nodes in the network) by enriching existing information with new data on body-size, metabolism and foraging biology; 2) use these data and emerging ecological theories to create novel predictive models of how food webs will respond to warming; 3) test our model predictions using manipulative experiments that simulate the effects of climate warming.
Organisations
Publications
Zhao L
(2016)
Weighting and indirect effects identify keystone species in food webs.
in Ecology letters
Description | We have found that metabolic approaches can be scaled from individuals to higher organisational levels to explain why warming can (unexpectedly) support bigger populations of apex predators |
Exploitation Route | They can be used to assess future impacts of global warming on fisheries |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | My findings have not yet been used but I am in touch with relevant people in NGOs and the Brazilian government to put some of these results in practice. |
Sector | Environment |
Description | Policy briefing note |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
Description | EU H2020 |
Amount | € 10,000,000 (EUR) |
Organisation | European Commission H2020 |
Sector | Public |
Country | Belgium |
Start | 02/2017 |
End | 02/2022 |
Description | Royal Society Research Grants |
Amount | £13,994 (GBP) |
Funding ID | RG140601 |
Organisation | The Royal Society |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2015 |
End | 03/2016 |
Description | Blog contribution to World Wildlife Day |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The Grantham Institute asked me to contribute to their blog on environmental issues for World Wildlife Day after reading a media article about a paper I recently published in Global Change Biology. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://granthaminstitute.wordpress.com/2016/03/03/how-can-wildlife-adapt-to-a-warmer-world/ |
Description | Coverage for research on New York Times website |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Microscopic Neighbors, Evolving Together It seems obvious that how different living things in a community or ecological system bump up against one another would affect how they evolve. That would include everything from the mix of fish in a lake to the bacteria, fungi and insects that coexist in rainwater that pools in the roots at the base of a beech tree... Readers of the website found out about this research |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
URL | http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/16/science/microscopic-neighbors-evolving-together.html?_r=0 |
Description | Hengill Documentary |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Resulted in a documentary on the ecological importance of geothermal areas This documentary has been used to discourage geothermal energy expansion in Iceland by highlighting the ecological importance of these areas |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
Description | Imperial news piece |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Imperial media office wrote an article on a paper that I published in Global Change Biology and posted it on the main Imperial website, as well as distributing it through their newsletter and social media channels |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/newssummary/news_23-2-2016-16-39-12 |
Description | Interview for documentary by Icelandic Environmental Agency |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Interviewed on the importance of geothermal areas for Icelandic Environmental Agency documentary aimed at influencing policy on the expansion of geothermal power stations in Iceland |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
Description | Planet Earth article |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Article has received positive feedback in social media |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/features/story.aspx?id=1749 |
Description | Policy Briefing Note on Adaptation to Climate Change |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | A policy briefing written by the research team for the Grantham Institute |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-pa... |
Description | Public engagement at Science Uncovered event at the Natural History Museum, 28th September 2012 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Public learned scientific information about microbial diversity and evolution in the context of digestive health Public expressed interest and learned new facts |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
Description | Science Uncovered - Natural History Museum (September 2013) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Science Uncovered is a widely-advertised and well-attended public outreach event hosted at the Natural History Museum in London, where scientist engage with the public face-to-face basis to discuss their research and its implications in an informal setting. I represented Imperial College London, accompanied by two PhD students, and discussed my group's work, which included the current grant, under the general theme of ecological responses and alterations to energy flux in food webs due to environmental stressors. At our stall we spoke to several hundred visitors throughout the day. See description above. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
Description | Sentinel Systems - a lay publication explaining our research to policymakers |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Arctic biodiversity is sensitive to remote (e.g. climate change) and proximate (e.g., overfishing) human impacts across multiple levels of biological organisation. This Profile in Pan-European Networks gives a brief overview of these issues and the need to develop sentinel systems for detecting biological responses to human impacts in the field. This publication is Open Access to EU Member States' civil servants and politicians. Our group has been approached to discuss our research in various fora, including the US Embassy (2014) and NERC Planet Earth (2014), for example. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
Description | Water Explorer Final |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | I presented tanks of freshwater pond organisms at the final of the Water Explorer competition, an initiative aimed at conserving water use at a national level through involvement by school children. I educated the school children that made the final and their teachers on the kinds of organisms that can be found in healthy freshwater bodies. I also got the opportunity to interact with environmental representatives from HSBC Bank and Global Action Plan, which is an independent charity committed to engaging people in practical solutions to environmental and social problems. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Website highlighting research on the model system in Iceland |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | https://sites.google.com/site/hengillresearch/ Numerous Skype discussions with potential collaborators, and the preparation of a NERC Large Grant bid |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
URL | https://sites.google.com/site/hengillresearch |
Description | Wild Trout Trust asked me to contribute an article on my research for publication in their Salmo magazine |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I was invited to contribute an article on temperature effects on brown trout from my research in Icelandic geothermal streams to the Wild Trout Trust's Salmo magazine. The article will be distributed nationwide to angling organisations, small businesses, nature groups, etc. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |