Synchrony in metapopulations at multiple time scales: theory, experiments, and field data
Lead Research Organisation:
Imperial College London
Department Name: Life Sciences
Abstract
Research context: Populations of the same species in locations hundreds of kilometers apart often fluctuate in unison or partly in unison, a phenomenon called synchrony. For instance, British aphid species, of economic importance because they are a major agricultural pest, outbreak 80% in synchrony over short distances and 50% in synchrony over distances of 200km, a huge distance for most aphid species. In fact, synchrony is widespread, and has been detected in birds, lemmings, fish such as cod, human pathogens such as measles, amphibians, and numerous other species. Many species exhibiting synchrony are of major conservation, economic, or health importance. Population synchrony has practical importance for several reasons. For instance, synchronized pest or disease populations require a coordinated response. An endangered species whose populations are synchronized is in accentuated danger of final extinction because populations are simultaneously low and might all go extinct by chance at once. An exploited synchronized species is periodically unavailable or less available across a wide area in many markets. Synchrony has been measured with methods that characterize the degree of synchrony between two populations only by a single number from 1 (perfect synchrony) down to -1 (perfect asynchrony). This approach is useful but limited: our results show synchrony is too complex to be captured with one number. Synchrony between two populations can occur mainly on short time scales, with little to no synchrony on long time scales; or on long time scales, with little or no synchrony on short time scales; or on any range of time scales. Synchrony between environmental variables in different locations has the same complexity. For instance, temperatures in London and Glasgow rise and fall largely together on annual time scales (seasonal variation) and multi-annual time scales (the North Atlantic Oscillation), but short-time-scale (day-to-day) temperature variation in London may resemble that in Glasgow much less. Different time scales of synchrony have different ecological and extinction-risk implications, and may have different implications for optimal control strategies for pests. In addition, new and important preliminary results show that the time-scale-specific structure of environmental synchrony is changing as part of climate change, and likely affects population synchrony, and thereby extinction risk. Research aims: We will use large spatio-temporal databases, new theory, and new lab experiments to obtain a broad time-scale-specific description of environmental and population synchrony, and to assess the implications of observed patterns for climate change, extinction risks, and inference of what mechanisms cause synchrony in the field. Applications: We will provide information about a newly observed and previously unrecognized aspect of climate change and a global assessment of its overarching importance for conservation and pest management applications and for ecological understanding.
Publications
Sheppard LW
(2011)
Oscillatory dynamics of vasoconstriction and vasodilation identified by time-localized phase coherence.
in Physics in medicine and biology
Sheppard LW
(2013)
Characterizing an ensemble of interacting oscillators: the mean-field variability index.
in Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics
Signorile A
(2016)
Mixture or mosaic? Genetic patterns in UK grey squirrels support a human-mediated 'long-jump' invasion mechanism
in Diversity and Distributions
Signorile A
(2014)
Do founder size, genetic diversity and structure influence rates of expansion of North American grey squirrels in Europe?
in Diversity and Distributions
Signorile A
(2014)
Grey squirrels in central Italy: a new threat for endemic red squirrel subspecies
in Biological Invasions
Signorile A
(2016)
Using DNA profiling to investigate human-mediated translocations of an invasive species
in Biological Conservation
Stefanovska A
(2011)
Reproducibility of LDF blood flow measurements: dynamical characterization versus averaging.
in Microvascular research
Sutherland W
(2012)
Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions
in Journal of Ecology
Wearn OR
(2012)
Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Woodward G
(2012)
Climate change impacts in multispecies systems: drought alters food web size structure in a field experiment.
in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
Description | Main outcomes include developing new methods of understanding synchrony, based on wavelet analysis, and applying them to understand the causes of synchrony in plankton metacommunities in the North Sea, how synchrony propagates through the plankton food web, and how climate change might affect synchrony. There has also been application to aphid metacommunities. |
Exploitation Route | Co-I's on the project work at Rothamsted Research, and there may be potential for agricultural exploitation of some of the aphid results. Results generally are basic science and serve to discover new and important ways in which climate change can impact biota. |
Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment |
URL | http://www.reumanlab.ku.edu/research |
Description | Amazon's extinction debt still to be paid. 12 July 2012. Nature News. Coverage of Wearn, Reuman & Ewers, Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon. Amazon's doomed species set to pay deforestation's 'extinction debt'. 12 July 2012. The Guardian. Coverage of Wearn, Reuman & Ewers, Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon. Amazon's endangered species face 'extinction debt'. 12 July 2012. Huffington Post. Coverage of Wearn, Reuman & Ewers, Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon. Amazon due for numerous species extinctions. 12 July 2012. LiveScience. Coverage of Wearn, Reuman & Ewers, Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon. Selected press coverage in popular media. |
Sector | Environment |
Description | My US-based collaborators applied to the NSF mathematical biology program to further support their side of the work |
Amount | $600,000 (USD) |
Organisation | National Science Foundation (NSF) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United States |
Start | 10/2012 |
End | 09/2017 |
Title | Cheddar: Analysis and visualization of ecological communities in R |
Description | A software package released on the Comprehensive R Archive Network and described in a publication also listed on this system. For manipulating ecological community data. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Title | Gruyere: Multi-species population dynamics in the style of Yodzis & Innes 1992 (American Naturalist) in R |
Description | A package for simulating community dynamics. Useful for studying synchrony because one can simulate communties and thereby understand how population become synchronized. Based on Cheddar. |
Type Of Technology | Software |