Hydrology-phosphorus interactions under changing climate and land-use: overcoming uncertainties and challenges for prediction to 2050 (Nutcat 2050)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Liverpool
Department Name: Centre for Engineering Sustainability
Abstract
The proposal aims to advance our understanding and predictions of interactions between hydrology and nutrient transfers in headwater catchments in the UK, under climate and land use change scenarios to 2050, using the very latest data and modeling approaches available for the UK. The study catchments will be the UK Demonstration Test Catchments (DTCs) and the aims will be achieved through: (1) using existing climate model scenarios to set baseline outcomes for change; (2) localized DTC-focused stakeholder elicitation workshops to develop scenarios for land use changes in response to the climate scenarios; (3) simulating current hydrological events and future changes in catchment hydrology in response to changing climate/land use; (4) new understanding of phosphorus (P) behaviour in extreme hydrological conditions, using experiments and newly available high resolution observations from the DTCs to inform model development; (5) improved prediction (with uncertainty) of future P behaviour scenarios arising from the new understanding of hydrology-P interactions; (6) attempting to scale up the information from headwater-catchment to full basin scale, and; (7) compare model performance with existing P models and assess uncertainties involved in this process, with further iterations of stakeholder consultation. We shall focus on the 10 km2 scale because this matches the size of the nine study catchments of the Defra DTCs (from the Eden, Wensum and Avon DTCs), which are our chosen study areas; this scale also represents the ideal size for studying processes along the mobilisation-delivery-in-stream impact 'transfer continuum'. These integrated studies will produce a prototype quantitative assessment and prediction of nutrient fluxes.
Our hypothesis is that increased seasonal variability in storm patterns (more extreme events, long drought periods), combined with interactions with land use change, will greatly alter future dissolved and particulate P fluxes across the land-water continuum and subsequent retention in-stream and downstream eutrophication risk. We shall extend our initial 'Systems Evidence Based Assessment Methodology (SEBAM)' study that focused on mobilization of P at the farm scale (recently published by the team), into a prototype modeling framework that includes source, mobilization, delivery and in-stream processing functions for predicting P fluxes from UK headwater catchments, and considers land use change, and use this framework (combined with knowledge from other projects involving the team) to scale up our information to define the potential for predicting other nutrient behaviours at the full basin scale.
We will capitalize on the new and unique high quality, high temporal resolution P monitoring data that is starting to emerge from the nine Defra DTC sub-catchments. A unique and exciting aspect of the work will be the use of expert elicitation procedures that incorporate fuzzy uncertainty-based analyses to develop tailored land use scenarios (building on the UK Land Use Foresight Initiative) for each of the unique landscape typologies for the 9 DTC focus catchments. Combining this information with the latest climate scenarios for the UK, we will include new developments in high-resolution numerical weather prediction. We shall then use these scenarios to study the impacts of climate and land use change to 2050 on hydrology, P mobilization, delivery and in-stream processing, informed from new empirical learning and experimentation. Model outputs will then be validated for other catchments in the wider UK (Conwy, Ribble, Tarland) using data from linked projects and our partners. Throughout the project, the outcomes will be tested with stakeholders. This will deliver a locally owned knowledge-based framework for understanding and managing future nutrient transfers from rural catchment systems, and some exciting new science on P transfers.
Our hypothesis is that increased seasonal variability in storm patterns (more extreme events, long drought periods), combined with interactions with land use change, will greatly alter future dissolved and particulate P fluxes across the land-water continuum and subsequent retention in-stream and downstream eutrophication risk. We shall extend our initial 'Systems Evidence Based Assessment Methodology (SEBAM)' study that focused on mobilization of P at the farm scale (recently published by the team), into a prototype modeling framework that includes source, mobilization, delivery and in-stream processing functions for predicting P fluxes from UK headwater catchments, and considers land use change, and use this framework (combined with knowledge from other projects involving the team) to scale up our information to define the potential for predicting other nutrient behaviours at the full basin scale.
We will capitalize on the new and unique high quality, high temporal resolution P monitoring data that is starting to emerge from the nine Defra DTC sub-catchments. A unique and exciting aspect of the work will be the use of expert elicitation procedures that incorporate fuzzy uncertainty-based analyses to develop tailored land use scenarios (building on the UK Land Use Foresight Initiative) for each of the unique landscape typologies for the 9 DTC focus catchments. Combining this information with the latest climate scenarios for the UK, we will include new developments in high-resolution numerical weather prediction. We shall then use these scenarios to study the impacts of climate and land use change to 2050 on hydrology, P mobilization, delivery and in-stream processing, informed from new empirical learning and experimentation. Model outputs will then be validated for other catchments in the wider UK (Conwy, Ribble, Tarland) using data from linked projects and our partners. Throughout the project, the outcomes will be tested with stakeholders. This will deliver a locally owned knowledge-based framework for understanding and managing future nutrient transfers from rural catchment systems, and some exciting new science on P transfers.
Planned Impact
There are many groups of potential beneficiaries of the proposed research, these include:
- Policymakers (Defra in particular, Scottish and Welsh Governments, EU): who are responsible for setting policies for sustainable rural land and water use now and the future, this project will directly support policy development;
- Water Companies in the UK (private and public): who are increasingly using catchment based approaches to manage water quality, need the approaches and data from this project to manage the risks from future climate and land use change on their water resources;
- Private enterprises and businesses (e.g. environmental consultancies): require information from this project about how to link climate and hydro-biogeochemical models and the relative performance of alternative modeling approaches to deliver projects to a broad range of clients;
- Food chain suppliers and supermarkets: require better information that this project will provide on how future climate scenarios will affect sustainable land use;
- Farming advisors (including Rivers Trusts) and extension officers: will benefit directly from the approaches, data and knowledge generated from this project on how rural land management influences P transfers from land to water now and in the future; and
- Farmers and land managers: require greater knowledge on possible future changes in climate and how this will affect their operations and losses of valuable P stocks from their soils.
These stakeholders will benefit because the work aims to improve our understanding of nutrient transfers from land to water and we shall provide new methods of predicting (and thus mitigating) what may happen in future events. They will also benefit from improved the knowledge of uncertainty and this will help them make more robust judgments about future management scenarios. All of these will contribute towards a reduction of nutrient pollution that contributes towards eutrophication of rivers, lakes and estuaries and, potentially, an increase in biodiversity.
- Policymakers (Defra in particular, Scottish and Welsh Governments, EU): who are responsible for setting policies for sustainable rural land and water use now and the future, this project will directly support policy development;
- Water Companies in the UK (private and public): who are increasingly using catchment based approaches to manage water quality, need the approaches and data from this project to manage the risks from future climate and land use change on their water resources;
- Private enterprises and businesses (e.g. environmental consultancies): require information from this project about how to link climate and hydro-biogeochemical models and the relative performance of alternative modeling approaches to deliver projects to a broad range of clients;
- Food chain suppliers and supermarkets: require better information that this project will provide on how future climate scenarios will affect sustainable land use;
- Farming advisors (including Rivers Trusts) and extension officers: will benefit directly from the approaches, data and knowledge generated from this project on how rural land management influences P transfers from land to water now and in the future; and
- Farmers and land managers: require greater knowledge on possible future changes in climate and how this will affect their operations and losses of valuable P stocks from their soils.
These stakeholders will benefit because the work aims to improve our understanding of nutrient transfers from land to water and we shall provide new methods of predicting (and thus mitigating) what may happen in future events. They will also benefit from improved the knowledge of uncertainty and this will help them make more robust judgments about future management scenarios. All of these will contribute towards a reduction of nutrient pollution that contributes towards eutrophication of rivers, lakes and estuaries and, potentially, an increase in biodiversity.
Publications
M.L. Villamizar
Lattice-Boltzmann method for in-stream phosphorus cycle
Hollaway M
(2018)
A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates
in Hydrological Processes
Hollaway M
(2018)
The challenges of modelling phosphorus in a headwater catchment: Applying a 'limits of acceptability' uncertainty framework to a water quality model
in Journal of Hydrology
Forber KJ
(2017)
Determining the Effect of Drying Time on Phosphorus Solubilization from Three Agricultural Soils under Climate Change Scenarios.
in Journal of environmental quality
Chan SC
(2020)
Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model.
in Climate dynamics
Chan S
(2018)
Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model
in Climate Dynamics
Description | Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we have used a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs). |
Exploitation Route | The work has significant implications for policy makers and practitioners managing the landscape and the impact or agriculture on water quality because it shows that climate change is affecting the transfer of phosphorus from land to water. Please see here some of the findings http://landwaterblog.blogspot.com/2017/08/an-uncertain-future-major-agricultural.html and also I was invited to give a webinair to the US-EPA http://landwaterblog.blogspot.com/2018/08/us-environmental-protection-agency.html |
Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Other |
URL | http://nutcat2050.org.uk/ |
Description | The media coverage raised awareness of the impacts of heavy rainfall and flooding, with greater acceptance of the need for adaptation in farming and living practices. The stakeholder workshops (in all three National Demonstration Test Catchment regions), included farmers, farm managers and farm advisors, as well as project members. the workshops raised awareness of the possible climate change scenarios in different parts of the UK, and allowed discussion and two-way feedback on the relationships between farm management practices, water quality and running a profitable farm business. Part of the science approach in NUTCAT-2050 was presented at an Exeter Initiative on Science and Technology conference on food security, by P Falloon: http://www.exetersciencepark.co.uk/component/rseventspro/event/17-exist-conference-2014?Itemid=events The talk raised business, academic and other users awareness of the relationship between soil, agriculture, climate, land use and water quality, and discussed how state of the art climate projections being used in the project might affect these issues.discussed how state of the art climate projections being used in the project might affect these issues. |
First Year Of Impact | 2014 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
Impact Types | Economic |
Title | Extension of Lattice Boltzmann methodology to study the transport of sediments and solutes by advection and diffusion in water |
Description | Development of the Lattice Boltzmann method to solve the fractional advection-diffusion equation (FADE), an efficient model with similar accuracy to other numerical methods. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | This opens a wide range of application of the FADE in hydrology and environmental engineering |
Title | LBM-SWAT model for water quality |
Description | The Lattice-Boltzmann model (LBM) has been modified to solve the advection-dispersion equation to water quality together with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) output data. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | The method allows further study of in-stream phosphorus cycle |
Description | Collaboration with Anglia Ruskin University |
Organisation | Anglia Ruskin University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We share the progress and results of the project with the partners |
Collaborator Contribution | The partner provides many years of experience in monitoring and assessment of soil erosion and runoff in England and Wales |
Impact | No outputs yet, although joint publications are expected |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Collaboration with Eden Demonstration Test Catchment Project |
Organisation | EdenDTC |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | We share knowledge on catchment function, share results from additional phosphorus sampling and stream gauging. |
Collaborator Contribution | Eden DTC shares all data from their catchment monitoring: weather data, stream discharge and water quality data. |
Impact | - |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Collaboration with Eden Rivers Trust |
Organisation | Eden Rivers Trust |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | We provide evidence of diffuse pollution which Eden Rivers Trust can use to help farmers understand how to plan mitigation measures. |
Collaborator Contribution | Eden Rivers Trust has helped with gaining land access permissions for installing and maintaining equipment, and has been a vital link in contacting farmers for stakeholder workshops. |
Impact | Stakeholder workshop in Morland, Cumbria, jointly organised by NUTCAT and Eden Rivers Trust |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Collaboration with James Hutton Institute |
Organisation | James Hutton Institute |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | We share the progress and results of the research with the partners. |
Collaborator Contribution | The partner provides guidance and expertise on stakeholder engagement and catchment hydro-biogeochemical functioning, and resources in the form of catchment monitoring data. |
Impact | No outcomes yet, although joint publications are expected. |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Collaboration with Wensum DTC |
Organisation | University of East Anglia |
Department | School of Environmental Sciences UEA |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We share progress and results of the project with the partners |
Collaborator Contribution | The partner provides experience of high-frequency monitoring in an intensive arable catchment, and shares the Wensum DTC data with NUTCAT2050 in order to work together in a coordinated manner to help understand hydrological processes, phosphorus mobility and to influence policy |
Impact | No outputs yet, although joint publications expected |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Avon DTC Stakeholder workshop, with NUTCAT session on land use/management changes under climate change |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Exchange ideas and improve predictions to other DTC and explore more problems. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Eden farmers Stakeholder workshop - has the weather changed the way you farm? |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | 33 farmers and stakeholders attended a talk on historic weather changes in the Eden catchment, and provided feedback and discussion on several specific questions relating to weather-induced and non-weather-induced changes in farming in Cumbria. The workshop helped to build trust between the farming community and the scientists with sharing of knowledge and learning on both sides. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://nutcat2050.org.uk/news |
Description | NUTCAT2050 project website |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Report research progress about the project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
Description | University Press, University of Liverpool |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Attracted attention to the research. Increased possibility for interdisciplinary collaboration. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://news.liv.ac.uk/2014/04/03/in-brief-farms-could-cause-more-river-pollution-as-winters-get-wett... |