GREENHOUSE: Generating Regional Emissions Estimates with a Novel Hierarchy of Observations and Upscaled Simulation Experiments
Lead Research Organisation:
NERC CEH (Up to 30.11.2019)
Department Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Effects
Abstract
The UK is committed to quantifying and managing its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG, i.e. CO2, CH4, N2O) to reduce the threat of dangerous climate change. Sinks and sources of GHGs vary in space and time across the UK because of the landscape's mosaic of managed and semi-natural ecosystems, and the varying temporal sensitivities of each GHG's emissions to meteorology and management. Understanding spatio-temporal patterns of biogenic GHG emissions will lead to improvements in flux estimates, allow inventories with greater sensitivity to management and climate, and advance the modelling of feedbacks between climate, land use and GHG emissions. Addressing Deliverable C of the NERC Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and Feedbacks Research Programme, we will use extensive existing UK field data on GHG emissions, supplemented with targeted new measurements at a range of scales, to build accurate GHG inventories and improve the capabilities of two land surface models (LSMs) to estimate GHG emissions.
Our measurements will underpin state-of-the-art temporal and spatial upscaling frameworks. The temporal framework will evaluate diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual variation in emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O over dominant UK land-covers, resolving management interventions such as ploughing, fertilizing and harvesting, and the effects of weather and climate variability. The spatial framework will evaluate landscape heterogeneity at patch (m), field (ha) and landscape (km2) scales, in two campaigns combining chambers, tower and airborne flux measurements in arable croplands of eastern England, and grazing and forest landscapes of northern Britain.
For modelling, we will update two LSMs, JULES and C-tessel, so that both generate estimates of CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes from managed landscapes. The models will be updated to include the capabilities to represent changes in land use over time, to represent changes in land management over time (crop sowing, fertilizing, harvesting, ploughing etc), and the capacity to simulate forest rotations. With these changes in place, we will determine parameterisations for dominant UK land-covers and management interventions, using our spatio-temporal data.
The work is organized in five science work-packages (WP).
WP1: Data assembly and preliminary analysis. We will create a database of GHG emissions data and ancillary data for major UK landcovers/landuses in order to calibrate and evaluate the LSMs' capabilities, and generate spatial databases of environmental and management drivers for the models.
WP2. GHG measurement at multiple scales. We deploy advanced technology to generate new information on spatial GHG processes from simultaneous measurement from chamber (<1 m) to landscape (40 km) length scales, and on temporal flux variation from minutes to years.
WP3. Earth observation (EO) to support upscaling. EO data will provide: i) driving data for LSM upscaling, from flux tower to aircraft campaign scales; and ii) spatial data for testing LSM outputs at these larger scales.
WP4 Upscaling GHG processes. Firstly, the two LSMs will be updated to allow the impacts of management activities on GHG emissions to be simulated, with calibration against an array of temporal flux data. Then, we will use the LSMs to model the fluxes of GHGs at larger spatial scales, based on a rigorous understanding of how the nonlinearity of responses and the non-Gaussian distribution of environmental input variables interact, for each GHG, using all available field data at finer scales.
WP5 Application at the regional scale. The LSMs will upscale GHG emissions for both campaign regions (E. England, N. Britain) using a 1-km2 resolution simulations with a focus on the airborne campaign periods of 4 weeks. We will determine how regional upscaling error can be reduced with intensive spatial soil and land management data.
Our measurements will underpin state-of-the-art temporal and spatial upscaling frameworks. The temporal framework will evaluate diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual variation in emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O over dominant UK land-covers, resolving management interventions such as ploughing, fertilizing and harvesting, and the effects of weather and climate variability. The spatial framework will evaluate landscape heterogeneity at patch (m), field (ha) and landscape (km2) scales, in two campaigns combining chambers, tower and airborne flux measurements in arable croplands of eastern England, and grazing and forest landscapes of northern Britain.
For modelling, we will update two LSMs, JULES and C-tessel, so that both generate estimates of CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes from managed landscapes. The models will be updated to include the capabilities to represent changes in land use over time, to represent changes in land management over time (crop sowing, fertilizing, harvesting, ploughing etc), and the capacity to simulate forest rotations. With these changes in place, we will determine parameterisations for dominant UK land-covers and management interventions, using our spatio-temporal data.
The work is organized in five science work-packages (WP).
WP1: Data assembly and preliminary analysis. We will create a database of GHG emissions data and ancillary data for major UK landcovers/landuses in order to calibrate and evaluate the LSMs' capabilities, and generate spatial databases of environmental and management drivers for the models.
WP2. GHG measurement at multiple scales. We deploy advanced technology to generate new information on spatial GHG processes from simultaneous measurement from chamber (<1 m) to landscape (40 km) length scales, and on temporal flux variation from minutes to years.
WP3. Earth observation (EO) to support upscaling. EO data will provide: i) driving data for LSM upscaling, from flux tower to aircraft campaign scales; and ii) spatial data for testing LSM outputs at these larger scales.
WP4 Upscaling GHG processes. Firstly, the two LSMs will be updated to allow the impacts of management activities on GHG emissions to be simulated, with calibration against an array of temporal flux data. Then, we will use the LSMs to model the fluxes of GHGs at larger spatial scales, based on a rigorous understanding of how the nonlinearity of responses and the non-Gaussian distribution of environmental input variables interact, for each GHG, using all available field data at finer scales.
WP5 Application at the regional scale. The LSMs will upscale GHG emissions for both campaign regions (E. England, N. Britain) using a 1-km2 resolution simulations with a focus on the airborne campaign periods of 4 weeks. We will determine how regional upscaling error can be reduced with intensive spatial soil and land management data.
Planned Impact
To exchange knowledge with policy makers and land managers, we will host a workshop to explain the novel science outputs relating GHG emissions to managed landscapes, with attendees from a range of government departments, governmental organisations, NGOs and agricultural and forest industry bodies. We will also provide evidence at the relevant Westminster and Holyrood Parliamentary committees and for the Scottish ClimateXChange. We will disseminate our research findings to land managers at UK and European land management conferences. An improved understanding of the linkage between landscape management and GHG emissions will be used to develop improved advice on mitigation to UK farmers and land managers.
To put our science in a global context, we will host a science workshop on measuring and modelling GHG emissions in managed landscapes, inviting our international partners. To generate links to climate modelling groups, we will work closely with UKMO and ECMWF to upgrade JULES and C-TESSEL for their applications.
Our work will be of interest to those members of the public concerned about climate security and land management. We will engage with local communities around our research sites, to explain our activities and to learn more about local perspectives. We will create press releases, a website and use social media to communicate with the wider public.
We will contribute to the development of a more scientifically literate population through relating our research and core concepts in environmental science to school teachers and pupils. Teaching material will be developed based on our data, emphasising our cutting edge technology (e.g. our aircraft), at the relevant level and to fit with the relevant strands and learning outcomes of the Curriculum for Excellence. Material developed here can also be shown at the Edinburgh International Science Fair.
To summarise, we will use the press, a project website and social media for broad dissemination of data. We make presentations to local UK communities during field campaigns. We will host two workshops with involvement of academic and non-academic project partners. We will create new material and activities with schools, and present at a Science Fair. We will provide evidence to parliamentary committees, report to Defra, DECC and NGOs.
To put our science in a global context, we will host a science workshop on measuring and modelling GHG emissions in managed landscapes, inviting our international partners. To generate links to climate modelling groups, we will work closely with UKMO and ECMWF to upgrade JULES and C-TESSEL for their applications.
Our work will be of interest to those members of the public concerned about climate security and land management. We will engage with local communities around our research sites, to explain our activities and to learn more about local perspectives. We will create press releases, a website and use social media to communicate with the wider public.
We will contribute to the development of a more scientifically literate population through relating our research and core concepts in environmental science to school teachers and pupils. Teaching material will be developed based on our data, emphasising our cutting edge technology (e.g. our aircraft), at the relevant level and to fit with the relevant strands and learning outcomes of the Curriculum for Excellence. Material developed here can also be shown at the Edinburgh International Science Fair.
To summarise, we will use the press, a project website and social media for broad dissemination of data. We make presentations to local UK communities during field campaigns. We will host two workshops with involvement of academic and non-academic project partners. We will create new material and activities with schools, and present at a Science Fair. We will provide evidence to parliamentary committees, report to Defra, DECC and NGOs.
Organisations
Publications
Cooper M
(2014)
Infilled Ditches are Hotspots of Landscape Methane Flux Following Peatland Re-wetting
in Ecosystems
Cowan N
(2016)
The influence of tillage on N<sub>2</sub>O fluxes from an intensively managed grazed grassland in Scotland
in Biogeosciences
Cowan N
(2015)
Spatial variability and hotspots of soil N<sub>2</sub>O fluxes from intensively grazed grassland
in Biogeosciences
Cowan N
(2014)
Investigating uptake of N<sub>2</sub>O in agricultural soils using a high-precision dynamic chamber method
in Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
Cowan N
(2019)
Application of Bayesian statistics to estimate nitrous oxide emission factors of three nitrogen fertilisers on UK grasslands.
in Environment international
Cowan N
(2017)
Nitrous oxide emission sources from a mixed livestock farm
in Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment
Cowan N
(2020)
Nitrous oxide emission factors of mineral fertilisers in the UK and Ireland: A Bayesian analysis of 20 years of experimental data.
in Environment international
Drewer J
(2016)
The impact of ploughing intensively managed temperate grasslands on N2O, CH4 and CO2 fluxes
in Plant and Soil
Evans CD
(2021)
Overriding water table control on managed peatland greenhouse gas emissions.
in Nature
Fisher J
(2014)
Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic
in Biogeosciences
Gray A
(2013)
Methane indicator values for peatlands: a comparison of species and functional groups.
in Global change biology
Jones AG
(2014)
Completing the FACE of elevated CO2 research.
in Environment international
Leeson S
(2017)
Nitrous oxide emissions from a peatbog after 13 years of experimental nitrogen deposition
in Biogeosciences
Leip A
(2018)
A complete rethink is needed on how greenhouse gas emissions are quantified for national reporting
in Atmospheric Environment
Levy P
(2015)
Greenhouse gas balance of a semi-natural peatbog in northern Scotland
in Environmental Research Letters
Levy P
(2018)
Estimation of gross land-use change and its uncertainty using a Bayesian data assimilation approach
in Biogeosciences
Levy P
(2022)
Challenges in Scaling Up Greenhouse Gas Fluxes: Experience From the UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Feedbacks Program
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Levy P
(2017)
Estimation of cumulative fluxes of nitrous oxide: uncertainty in temporal upscaling and emission factors
in European Journal of Soil Science
Milne A
(2014)
Analysis of uncertainties in the estimates of nitrous oxide and methane emissions in the UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture
in Atmospheric Environment
Murray-Tortarolo G
(2016)
The dry season intensity as a key driver of NPP trends
in Geophysical Research Letters
Peng S
(2015)
Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO 2 fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Piao S
(2013)
Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends.
in Global change biology
Piao S
(2014)
Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity.
in Nature communications
Rolinski S
(2015)
A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: the ecosystem perspective
in Biogeosciences
Sitch S
(2015)
Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide
in Biogeosciences
Skiba U
(2013)
Comparison of soil greenhouse gas fluxes from extensive and intensive grazing in a temperate maritime climate
in Biogeosciences
Tomlinson SJ
(2018)
Quantifying gross vs. net agricultural land use change in Great Britain using the Integrated Administration and Control System.
in The Science of the total environment
Van Oijen M
(2017)
Bayesian Methods for Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty and Error in Forest Models
in Current Forestry Reports
Van Oijen M
(2014)
Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models
in Biogeosciences
Van Oijen M
(2017)
Correcting errors from spatial upscaling of nonlinear greenhouse gas flux models
in Environmental Modelling & Software
Yang H
(2015)
Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Description | We have developed a method for modelling the greenhouse gas emissions from the UK which combines those produced by human activities (e.g. burning gas for energy supply) with natural uptake and release from vegetation (e.g. plant photosynthesis). This allows us to compare the UK greenhouse gas inventory (as reported via collecting statistics on fuel use) with the observed change in the atmosphere (as measured at a network of sites across the UK). |
Exploitation Route | The results will allow government departments (BEIS and Defra) to verify that the reported inventory is correct (or not), and that the UK is meeting its climate change targets. |
Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
URL | http://www.greenhouse-gases.org.uk/ |
Description | The work has allowed us to provide independent verification of the UK greenhouse gas budget. Ultimately this allows us to increase the effectiveness of public services and policy, by providing evidence on where mitigation strategies are proving effective. |
First Year Of Impact | 2016 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
Description | Landscapes For Sequestering Carbon: a dynamic marginal abatement cost curve approach with Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling |
Amount | £39,730 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/T003960/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2019 |
End | 06/2019 |
Description | NERC Highlight Topic |
Amount | £1,000,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/S003614/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2019 |
End | 03/2023 |
Description | The future role of measurements in tracking progress on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and targets |
Amount | £100,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2021 |
End | 05/2022 |
Description | Stakeholder workshop at Royal Society, London |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | ~100 stakeholders from government departments, charities and land management interests attended a workshop at the Royal Society. Results of the project were presented, and the implications for future work and decision-making discussed. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |