Forecasting Rainfall exploiting new data Assimilation techniques and Novel observations of Convection (FRANC)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
Brief periods of intense rainfall can lead to flash flooding with the potential to cause millions of pounds of damage to property, and to threaten lives. Accurate flood warnings even just a few hours ahead can allow preparations to be made to minimize damage. In order to improve the prediction of these events, more accurate forecasts of heavy rainfall are needed, which can then be used to inform flood prediction and warning systems. The UK Met Office is developing a new numerical weather prediction system with the goal of improving severe weather forecasts. This is a computer model that solves mathematical equations representing atmospheric motions and other physical processes such as cloud formation, with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.5km. This allows a more accurate representation of fine-scale features and explicit representation of storms, but the results are still dependent on the accuracy of the starting conditions or initial data describing the current state of atmospheric variables such as winds, pressure, temperature and humidity. Initial conditions are usually estimated using a sophisticated mathematical technique known as data assimilation that blends observations with model information, taking account of the uncertainties in the data. In this project, we propose fundamental research to reduce initial condition errors. The work will be carried out in a partnership between the Universities of Reading, Surrey and the Met Office.
We plan to investigate ways of extracting the maximum information from weather radar observations of precipitation and moisture in the lower parts of the atmosphere. Although rainfall is usually well observed by weather radar, severe precipitation can cause the radar beam to lose energy, and thus the weaker returned signal may be misinterpreted, giving a lower rain-rate than in reality. We will develop algorithms to correct for this and other problems caused by severe rainfall. Recently, we have also developed techniques to infer humidity information about the lower atmosphere, and we plan to optimize the method and investigate the observation error characteristics, to prepare for this data to be assimilated by the Met Office.
One of our goals is to use observations to provide information on the small scales without degrading the large scale weather patterns, which are themselves likely to be accurate. However, currently much of the small scale observational information is being lost by ignoring correlations between observation errors. We will develop a generic approach for treating observation correlations for a range of observation types. We will investigate mathematical methods that both capture the maximum amount of information contained in the observations, while still being practical for operational computations, which have to take place within a limited time frame.
Another goal is to develop innovative ways of treating moist processes that are largely absent from present-day assimilation systems. We plan to design and test efficient and effective ways of assimilating moisture information that respect the intricate dynamical and physical relationships that operate in the atmosphere. If successful, such new approaches will allow better use of cloud and rain affected observations than at present.
Predicting convective rain is made harder by the fact that some events are inherently unpredictable, even with good data assimilation and models, due to their high sensitivity to even small errors in the initial conditions. Further studies will be made to look at the dynamical reasons for the low predictability of such events using diagnostics derived from models and observations.
We plan to investigate ways of extracting the maximum information from weather radar observations of precipitation and moisture in the lower parts of the atmosphere. Although rainfall is usually well observed by weather radar, severe precipitation can cause the radar beam to lose energy, and thus the weaker returned signal may be misinterpreted, giving a lower rain-rate than in reality. We will develop algorithms to correct for this and other problems caused by severe rainfall. Recently, we have also developed techniques to infer humidity information about the lower atmosphere, and we plan to optimize the method and investigate the observation error characteristics, to prepare for this data to be assimilated by the Met Office.
One of our goals is to use observations to provide information on the small scales without degrading the large scale weather patterns, which are themselves likely to be accurate. However, currently much of the small scale observational information is being lost by ignoring correlations between observation errors. We will develop a generic approach for treating observation correlations for a range of observation types. We will investigate mathematical methods that both capture the maximum amount of information contained in the observations, while still being practical for operational computations, which have to take place within a limited time frame.
Another goal is to develop innovative ways of treating moist processes that are largely absent from present-day assimilation systems. We plan to design and test efficient and effective ways of assimilating moisture information that respect the intricate dynamical and physical relationships that operate in the atmosphere. If successful, such new approaches will allow better use of cloud and rain affected observations than at present.
Predicting convective rain is made harder by the fact that some events are inherently unpredictable, even with good data assimilation and models, due to their high sensitivity to even small errors in the initial conditions. Further studies will be made to look at the dynamical reasons for the low predictability of such events using diagnostics derived from models and observations.
Planned Impact
The primary impact of this project will be on the ability of the Met Office to forecast high impact rainfall, and on downstream systems and users of those forecasts.
Proposed work on improving the quality and accuracy of radar reflectivity measurements and derived rainfall estimates will have impact in a number of ways. Firstly, there will be an immediate impact via the Met Office STEPS/UKPP numerical weather prediction (NWP) post-processing system. This objectively merges extrapolation forecasts with output from numerical weather prediction (currently the 1.5 km grid-spacing model, updated every 3 h, at best) to produce an 'optimal' forecast every hour. The output is used to drive hydrological models by the Environment Agency; in particular, it is used to drive the G2G model operated within the Joint Met Office/ Environment Agency Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC), which gives a national view of short-term flood risk, including un-gauged catchments. It is also used as guidance for the Extreme Rainfall Alerts, along with the UK convective-scale ensemble system, UK-MOGREPS. Improved radar-derived rainfall will also have a direct impact on the quality of the NWP forecast, as rainfall is assimilated and, incidentally, enable a more useful verification of any rainfall forecasts to be performed.
Longer term improvements will come primarily through the implementation of a nowcasting configuration of the NWP system. This could become a replacement input into STEPS/UKPP and so naturally feed through to the same users. The Met Office have a key deliverable of their Public Weather Service R&D plan to have an 'Operational implementation of next-generation NWP-nowcasting system' by March 2017. This would potentially include implementation of direct assimilation of radar reflectivity by 4DVAR rather than rainfall via latent heat nudging. This brings advantages of consistency and coupling to model dynamics, but will benefit enormously from the more accurate data, the better characterization of their errors and the more efficient use of data via improved representation of error covariance structure provided by this project. The latter will also have impact through better use of the information in the radar Doppler wind data and satellite observations already assimilated.
The NWP-based nowcasting system would also be the route through which the other main outputs of the project deliver impact, though they would also have impact in the existing NWP system if the nowcasting system were delayed. Use of radar refractivity provides a major source of low-level humidity information, vital for good forecasts of high-impact rainfall. This information is currently very sparse, mainly coming from surface synoptic stations but increasingly from aircraft as the land and take off from major airports. While we cannot predict the amount of forecast improvement, we know that deficiencies in low level moisture are a major contributor to forecast error.
A better (and more adaptive) choice of moisture-variable(s) in the Data Assimilation system will have impact on the assimilation system, especially assimilation of refractivity and reflectivity (for which it may prove essential); this is a current goal in the Met Office's rolling plan for improvements.
Many of these impacts will also have benefit for other forecast systems; techniques to model observation error covariance will be applicable in other systems and to other observation types. Application of refractivity will also be applicable in other radar systems.
Of course, the ultimate aim of this project is impact on the public (and thus the insurance industry) through improved flood warnings, especially of pluvial and fluvial flooding of small, fast-response catchments. This will bring benefits through reduced loss of life and damage to property.
Proposed work on improving the quality and accuracy of radar reflectivity measurements and derived rainfall estimates will have impact in a number of ways. Firstly, there will be an immediate impact via the Met Office STEPS/UKPP numerical weather prediction (NWP) post-processing system. This objectively merges extrapolation forecasts with output from numerical weather prediction (currently the 1.5 km grid-spacing model, updated every 3 h, at best) to produce an 'optimal' forecast every hour. The output is used to drive hydrological models by the Environment Agency; in particular, it is used to drive the G2G model operated within the Joint Met Office/ Environment Agency Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC), which gives a national view of short-term flood risk, including un-gauged catchments. It is also used as guidance for the Extreme Rainfall Alerts, along with the UK convective-scale ensemble system, UK-MOGREPS. Improved radar-derived rainfall will also have a direct impact on the quality of the NWP forecast, as rainfall is assimilated and, incidentally, enable a more useful verification of any rainfall forecasts to be performed.
Longer term improvements will come primarily through the implementation of a nowcasting configuration of the NWP system. This could become a replacement input into STEPS/UKPP and so naturally feed through to the same users. The Met Office have a key deliverable of their Public Weather Service R&D plan to have an 'Operational implementation of next-generation NWP-nowcasting system' by March 2017. This would potentially include implementation of direct assimilation of radar reflectivity by 4DVAR rather than rainfall via latent heat nudging. This brings advantages of consistency and coupling to model dynamics, but will benefit enormously from the more accurate data, the better characterization of their errors and the more efficient use of data via improved representation of error covariance structure provided by this project. The latter will also have impact through better use of the information in the radar Doppler wind data and satellite observations already assimilated.
The NWP-based nowcasting system would also be the route through which the other main outputs of the project deliver impact, though they would also have impact in the existing NWP system if the nowcasting system were delayed. Use of radar refractivity provides a major source of low-level humidity information, vital for good forecasts of high-impact rainfall. This information is currently very sparse, mainly coming from surface synoptic stations but increasingly from aircraft as the land and take off from major airports. While we cannot predict the amount of forecast improvement, we know that deficiencies in low level moisture are a major contributor to forecast error.
A better (and more adaptive) choice of moisture-variable(s) in the Data Assimilation system will have impact on the assimilation system, especially assimilation of refractivity and reflectivity (for which it may prove essential); this is a current goal in the Met Office's rolling plan for improvements.
Many of these impacts will also have benefit for other forecast systems; techniques to model observation error covariance will be applicable in other systems and to other observation types. Application of refractivity will also be applicable in other radar systems.
Of course, the ultimate aim of this project is impact on the public (and thus the insurance industry) through improved flood warnings, especially of pluvial and fluvial flooding of small, fast-response catchments. This will bring benefits through reduced loss of life and damage to property.
Organisations
- University of Reading (Lead Research Organisation)
- Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF READING (Collaboration)
- Newcastle University (Collaboration)
- University of Hull (Collaboration)
- European Meteorological Society (EMS) (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF EXETER (Collaboration)
- Flooding & Coastal Erosion Risk Management Network (FCERM.net) (Collaboration)
- Meteorological Office UK (Collaboration)
- British Geological Survey (Collaboration)
- United States Naval Research Laboratory (Collaboration)
- German Weather Service (Collaboration)
- University of Bremen (Collaboration)
- National Centre for Earth Observation (Collaboration)
- Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU Munich) (Collaboration)
- University of Bristol (Collaboration)
- KING'S COLLEGE LONDON (Collaboration)
- Met Office (Project Partner)
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (Project Partner)
Publications
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Mirza A
(2021)
Comparing diagnosed observation uncertainties with independent estimates: A case study using aircraft-based observations and a convection-permitting data assimilation system
in Atmospheric Science Letters
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
Mirza A
(2016)
Comparison of aircraft-derived observations with in situ research aircraft measurements
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
Plant R
(2018)
Convective-Scale Perturbation Growth across the Spectrum of Convective Regimes
in Monthly Weather Review
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
Nichols, N.K.
(2013)
Correlated Observation Errors in Data Assimilation
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
Nichols, N.K.
(2014)
Correlated Observation Errors in Data Assimilation
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
Cordoba M
(2016)
Diagnosing atmospheric motion vector observation errors for an operational high-resolution data assimilation system
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
![publication icon](/resources/img/placeholder-60x60.png)
Description | Our research focusses on flooding associated with intense, localised rainfall events. These are typically thunderstorms that happen over just a few tens of square kilometres lasting 1 to 3 hours, making them difficult to predict. We have considered the prediction of surface water and flash floods from observations of the atmosphere; through weather and flood forecasts to the impacts on the ground. Our findings will improve forecasts and risk management associated with these type of events. More detailed written findings are available on the web, along with a film. http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/flooding |
Exploitation Route | Our findings will be very useful for the operational numerical weather prediction community. We are working in partnership with the Met Office to ensure their transfer to operational practice. |
Sectors | Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
URL | http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/flooding/files/2013/11/Flooding-From-Intense-Rainfall-Summaries.pdf |
Description | Brief periods of intense rainfall can lead to flash flooding with the potential to cause millions of pounds of damage to property, and to threaten lives. In order to improve the prediction of these events, more accurate forecasts of heavy rainfall are needed, and these can then be used to inform flood prediction and warning systems. The UK Met Office is developing a new numerical weather prediction system with the goal of improving severe weather forecasts. This will enable a more accurate representation of fine-scale features and explicit representation of storms. However, the results are still dependent on the accuracy of the initial data describing the current state of atmospheric variables such as winds, pressure, temperature and humidity. We report on advances in the estimating rainfall rates from weather radar. Rainfall totals inferred from radar during flooding events are often less than half the values recorded by raingauges, as was the case in the London floods of 20 July 2007. This is because the radar return is attenuated by both the falling rainfall and by a film of water on the radome protecting the radar. We have developed a new method of correcting this attenuation, based on the principle that all attenuators are emitters, so the total attenuation on any radar azimuth can be detected by the increase in background noise. Software for measuring emission has been rolled out across the UK Met Office weather radar network and is being used operationally. Developments in the treatment of observation uncertainty have led to a new software tool and changes in professional practice at the UK Met Office. Operational use of our techniques for radar Doppler winds commenced in Autumn 2019 for hourly forecasts over the UK. |
First Year Of Impact | 2016 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal,Economic,Policy & public services |
Description | DWD change to radar quality control |
Geographic Reach | Europe |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | Our research related to the operational and near operational German public weather forecasting service. Our results highlighted some problems with observation quality control, that have subsequently been rectified, and improved the German weather forecast, |
Description | A FAIR approach to flood risk |
Amount | £6,000,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department For Environment, Food And Rural Affairs (DEFRA) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2022 |
End | 03/2027 |
Description | EPSRC Senior Fellowship in Digital Technology for Living with Environmental Change |
Amount | £1,706,722 (GBP) |
Funding ID | EP/P002331/1 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2016 |
End | 08/2021 |
Description | ESA Advanced Data Assimilation Workshop |
Amount | £15,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | European Space Agency |
Sector | Public |
Country | France |
Start | 04/2014 |
End | 04/2014 |
Description | Enhancing forecasting flood inundation mapping through data assimilation |
Amount | £65,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | 2438362 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2020 |
End | 12/2023 |
Description | Met Office Academic Partnership PDRA |
Amount | £50,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2022 |
End | 07/2023 |
Description | Multi-Model data assimilation techniques for flood forecasting |
Amount | £35,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | 2270121 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2019 |
End | 09/2023 |
Description | NERC International Opportunity Fund |
Amount | £31,771 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/N006682/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2015 |
End | 10/2016 |
Description | 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), September 2013 |
Organisation | European Meteorological Society (EMS) |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Sue Gray was on the Programme and Science committee for the meeting and Sarah Dance acted as a co-convenor for the conference session on Data Assimilation. |
Collaborator Contribution | Conference organization |
Impact | EMS conference proceedings: Volume 11 of Advances in Science and Research (Open Access) http://www.adv-sci-res.net/topical_library.html |
Start Year | 2012 |
Description | Collaboration with DWD |
Organisation | German Weather Service |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | WE have visited DWD and hosted a visitor from DWD, exchanged data and software with the DWD and have written a jointly authored journal article. |
Collaborator Contribution | DWD hosted our visit and sent a visitor to us, exchanged data and software and have written a jointly authored journal article. |
Impact | The research directly influenced DWD's operational implementations of data assimilation of radar data. This is being used across Germany to give better forecasts of high impact weather such as intense precipitation, winds and hailstorms, Multidisciplinary: Mathematics and Meteorology Journal publication: Waller, J.A., E. Bauernschubert, S.L. Dance, N.K. Nichols, R. Potthast, and D. Simonin, (2019): Observation error statistics for Doppler Radar radial wind superobservations assimilated into the DWD COSMO-KENDA system. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0104.1 |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Collaboration with LMU, Munich |
Organisation | Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU Munich) |
Department | Faculty of Physics |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | David Flack has visited LMU,Munich to discuss research with George Craig and his group. |
Collaborator Contribution | George Craig has visited Reading to discuss research with the project team. |
Impact | Flack, D.L.A. et al (2016) Characterisation of Convective Regimes over the British Isles, Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2758 |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Collaboration with NRL |
Organisation | United States Naval Research Laboratory |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Nancy Nichols visits NRL, Monterey annually to discuss current research. She has also contributed to writing a joint publication. |
Collaborator Contribution | Research discussions and joint publication writing. |
Impact | Outputs: journal article (Hodyss and Nichols, 2015) Multi-disciplinary: Mathematics and Meteorology |
Start Year | 2006 |
Description | DMI workshop and journal article |
Organisation | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) |
Country | Denmark |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | We attended a workshop and were co-authors on a journal article reviewing the current state of the use of crowdsourced observations in numerical prediction. |
Collaborator Contribution | The Danish Meteorological Institute hosted the workshop and led the writing of the journal article. |
Impact | Journal article Hintz et al (2019) - see publications list. |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | NCEO funding |
Organisation | National Centre for Earth Observation |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Our research contributes to the goals of the NCEO Data Assimilation theme. We have presented material to NCEO conferences and talked to other NCEO scientists in different application areas about our work. |
Collaborator Contribution | NCEO provided 7 months salary to extend the time available for Waller's research on this topic. NCEO Co-Is Lawless and Nichols provided staff time and expertise. |
Impact | Waller, J. A., Dance, S. L., Lawless, A. S. and Nichols, N. K. (2014) Estimating correlated observation error statistics using an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Tellus A, 66, 23294, doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v66.23294 |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | Partnership with the Met Office (FFIR) |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We are working together with the Met Office on an integrated programme of research. |
Collaborator Contribution | The Met Office is contributing staff time and expertise, model and data assimilation software, observational data, supercomputing time and support. |
Impact | The project has resulted in - improvements in the Met Office operational UK weather radar network - changes to the Met Office operational numerical weather prediction software - a number of joint journal publications (listed below) M. Cordoba, S.L. Dance , G.A. Kelly, N.K. Nichols and J.A. Waller (2016) Diagnosing Atmospheric Motion Vector observation errors for an operational high resolution data assimilation system Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (Accepted) Waller, J. A., Ballard, S. P., Dance, S. L., Kelly, G., Nichols, N. K. and Simonin, D. (2016) Diagnosing horizontal and inter-channel observation error correlations for SEVIRI observations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics. Remote Sensing, 8 (7). 581. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs8070581 Mirza, A. K., Ballard, S. P., Dance, S. L., Maisey, P., Rooney, G. G. and Stone, E. K. (2016) Comparison of aircraft derived observations with in situ research aircraft measurements. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2864 (In Press) Waller, J. A., Simonin, D., Dance, S. L., Nichols, N. K. and Ballard, S. P. (2016) Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics. Monthly Weather Review. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0340.1 Flack, D. L. A., Plant, R. S., Gray, S. L., Lean, H. W., Keil, C. and Craig, G. C. (2016), Characterisation of convective regimes over the British Isles. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 142: 1541-1553. doi: 10.1002/qj.2758 Mirza, A. K., Ballard, S. P., Dance, S. L., Rooney, G. G. and Stone, E. K. (2019), Towards operational use of aircraft-derived observations: a case study at London Heathrow airport.. Meteorol Appl. Accepted Author Manuscript. doi:10.1002/met.1782 Simonin, D. , Waller, J. A., Ballard, S. P., Dance, S. L. and Nichols, N. K. (2019), A pragmatic strategy for implementing spatially correlated observation errors in an operational system: an application to Doppler radial winds. Q J R Meteorol Soc. Accepted Author Manuscript. doi:10.1002/qj.3592 Waller, J.A., E. Bauernschubert, S.L. Dance, N.K. Nichols, R. Potthast, and D. Simonin, (2019): Observation error statistics for Doppler Radar radial wind superobservations assimilated into the DWD COSMO-KENDA system. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0104.1 |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | SINATRA collaboration |
Organisation | British Geological Survey |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | SINATRA is the other project funded under the NERC Flooding from Intense Rainfall Programme. To date we have held several joint workshops with both of the project teams, and contributed staff time to the joint FLoAT (Flood Action Team). We have also carried out collaborative research funded as pilot projects using programme coordination team funds. We also have a joint website and have written a joint proposal for future funding. |
Collaborator Contribution | Feedback on eachother's work contributing to greater understanding of the flood forecasting chain and impacts of flooding. Writing proposal for the next phase of Flooding from Intense Rainfall. |
Impact | Outcomes: Joint workshop, Joint website, Joint Flood Action Team, Joint proposal for funding Disciplines: Meteorology, Hydrology, Mathematics, Data Assimilation, Earth Observation |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | SINATRA collaboration |
Organisation | King's College London |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | SINATRA is the other project funded under the NERC Flooding from Intense Rainfall Programme. To date we have held several joint workshops with both of the project teams, and contributed staff time to the joint FLoAT (Flood Action Team). We have also carried out collaborative research funded as pilot projects using programme coordination team funds. We also have a joint website and have written a joint proposal for future funding. |
Collaborator Contribution | Feedback on eachother's work contributing to greater understanding of the flood forecasting chain and impacts of flooding. Writing proposal for the next phase of Flooding from Intense Rainfall. |
Impact | Outcomes: Joint workshop, Joint website, Joint Flood Action Team, Joint proposal for funding Disciplines: Meteorology, Hydrology, Mathematics, Data Assimilation, Earth Observation |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | SINATRA collaboration |
Organisation | Newcastle University |
Department | School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | SINATRA is the other project funded under the NERC Flooding from Intense Rainfall Programme. To date we have held several joint workshops with both of the project teams, and contributed staff time to the joint FLoAT (Flood Action Team). We have also carried out collaborative research funded as pilot projects using programme coordination team funds. We also have a joint website and have written a joint proposal for future funding. |
Collaborator Contribution | Feedback on eachother's work contributing to greater understanding of the flood forecasting chain and impacts of flooding. Writing proposal for the next phase of Flooding from Intense Rainfall. |
Impact | Outcomes: Joint workshop, Joint website, Joint Flood Action Team, Joint proposal for funding Disciplines: Meteorology, Hydrology, Mathematics, Data Assimilation, Earth Observation |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | SINATRA collaboration |
Organisation | University of Bristol |
Department | School of Geographical Sciences |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | SINATRA is the other project funded under the NERC Flooding from Intense Rainfall Programme. To date we have held several joint workshops with both of the project teams, and contributed staff time to the joint FLoAT (Flood Action Team). We have also carried out collaborative research funded as pilot projects using programme coordination team funds. We also have a joint website and have written a joint proposal for future funding. |
Collaborator Contribution | Feedback on eachother's work contributing to greater understanding of the flood forecasting chain and impacts of flooding. Writing proposal for the next phase of Flooding from Intense Rainfall. |
Impact | Outcomes: Joint workshop, Joint website, Joint Flood Action Team, Joint proposal for funding Disciplines: Meteorology, Hydrology, Mathematics, Data Assimilation, Earth Observation |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | SINATRA collaboration |
Organisation | University of Exeter |
Department | College of Engineering, Mathematics & Physical Sciences |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | SINATRA is the other project funded under the NERC Flooding from Intense Rainfall Programme. To date we have held several joint workshops with both of the project teams, and contributed staff time to the joint FLoAT (Flood Action Team). We have also carried out collaborative research funded as pilot projects using programme coordination team funds. We also have a joint website and have written a joint proposal for future funding. |
Collaborator Contribution | Feedback on eachother's work contributing to greater understanding of the flood forecasting chain and impacts of flooding. Writing proposal for the next phase of Flooding from Intense Rainfall. |
Impact | Outcomes: Joint workshop, Joint website, Joint Flood Action Team, Joint proposal for funding Disciplines: Meteorology, Hydrology, Mathematics, Data Assimilation, Earth Observation |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | SINATRA collaboration |
Organisation | University of Hull |
Department | Department of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | SINATRA is the other project funded under the NERC Flooding from Intense Rainfall Programme. To date we have held several joint workshops with both of the project teams, and contributed staff time to the joint FLoAT (Flood Action Team). We have also carried out collaborative research funded as pilot projects using programme coordination team funds. We also have a joint website and have written a joint proposal for future funding. |
Collaborator Contribution | Feedback on eachother's work contributing to greater understanding of the flood forecasting chain and impacts of flooding. Writing proposal for the next phase of Flooding from Intense Rainfall. |
Impact | Outcomes: Joint workshop, Joint website, Joint Flood Action Team, Joint proposal for funding Disciplines: Meteorology, Hydrology, Mathematics, Data Assimilation, Earth Observation |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | SINATRA collaboration |
Organisation | University of Reading |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | SINATRA is the other project funded under the NERC Flooding from Intense Rainfall Programme. To date we have held several joint workshops with both of the project teams, and contributed staff time to the joint FLoAT (Flood Action Team). We have also carried out collaborative research funded as pilot projects using programme coordination team funds. We also have a joint website and have written a joint proposal for future funding. |
Collaborator Contribution | Feedback on eachother's work contributing to greater understanding of the flood forecasting chain and impacts of flooding. Writing proposal for the next phase of Flooding from Intense Rainfall. |
Impact | Outcomes: Joint workshop, Joint website, Joint Flood Action Team, Joint proposal for funding Disciplines: Meteorology, Hydrology, Mathematics, Data Assimilation, Earth Observation |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | University of Bremen (Germany) FRANC/SINATRA/OSCA |
Organisation | University of Bremen |
Department | MARUM |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Research on estimation of correlated observation errors in numerical weather prediction is being applied to a new application of river flood modelling. |
Collaborator Contribution | Provision of flood model and numerical runs. |
Impact | D. Mason, J. Garcia-Pintado, H. L. Cloke, S. L. Dance. J. Munoz-Sabatier Assimilating high resolution remotely sensed data into a distributed hydrological model to improve run off prediction. (2002) ECMWF Tech Memo 867, ECMWF |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | VK Masters Project with the Met Office |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | This Masters project was co-supervised by myself and PDRA Dr Joanne Waller. We initiated the collaboration and met weekly with the student and collaborators; providing key ideas and input to discussions and writing up the work. |
Collaborator Contribution | This Masters project was co-supervised by Dr Lee Hawkness-Smith (Met Office staff member), he attended weekly meeting; providing key ideas and input to discussions and writing up the work. The Met Office provided the radar observations data and supercomputing software; CPU time and model data to support the project. |
Impact | Masters thesis Kourapaki (2019) - see publications section of researchfish. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | collaboration with FCERMnet |
Organisation | Flooding & Coastal Erosion Risk Management Network (FCERM.net) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | In June 2014 Sue Ballard attended the FCERMnet Annual meeting and presented a poster on FFIR, and in particular FRANC, and also facilitated a breakout session. We have also contributed articles to the FCERMnet newsletter |
Collaborator Contribution | FCERMnet gives us access to a network of stakeholders. |
Impact | Presentations at FCERMnet meetings Contributions to FCERMnet newsletter |
Start Year | 2014 |
Title | Estimating correlated error statistics in an ensemble transform Kalman filter |
Description | This code describes a method developed by Waller et al (2014) that allows spatially correlated and time-dependent observation error to be diagnosed and incorporated in an ensemble data assimilation system. The method combines an ensemble transform Kalman filter with a method that uses statistical averages of background and analysis innovations to provide an estimate of the observation error covariance matrix. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2014 |
Impact | The software is hosted on the ESA (European Space Agency) website and available as a training or research tool. |
URL | http://www.esa-da.org/content/finding-representativity-error |
Title | Operational use of Mode-S EHS at the Met Office |
Description | This collaborative research investigated a novel source of atmospheric measurements, determined from reports automatically exchanged between aircraft and air-traffic control, providing low-level information close to airports to improve forecasts of local conditions, such as fog and low-level turbulence. Analysis of the air-traffic communications provided the ambient wind and temperature at the aircraft's position. The new data source was trialled in the kilometre-scale UK Met Office model after a thorough evaluation of the errors, essential for using the measurements correctly. Additionally, reports from many aircraft were aggregated to construct vertical profiles of temperature for use by forecasters |
Type Of Technology | New/Improved Technique/Technology |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Impact | This research improves our ability to forecast the weather by efficiently exploiting existing technologies and establishing the error ranges on the new data to ensure best use alongside other sources. The aircraft wind observations have been used for the Met Office hourly weather forecasts since March 2019. |
URL | https://research.reading.ac.uk/dare/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/Unorganized/DARE_aircraft_obs_revised... |
Title | Weather radar attenuation correction |
Description | We have been working in collaboration with the UK Met Office to develop corrections to weather radar observations due to wet radomes. The scheme is based on reflectivity, polarisation and radiometric emission measurements from the UK radar network. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2015 |
Impact | The monitoring of radar attenuation due to wet radomes is now operational on the UK national weather radar network (since the August 2015 release of the Met Office radarnet system). Initial evidence shows that the new scheme should provide better radar observations of rainfall for use in weather and flood forecasting. However, further trials are still underway. |
Description | "Storm/Hurricane Ophelia" - Radio Breeze |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | 16th October 2017 PDRA/KE officer Rob Thompson discussed "Storm/Hurricane Ophelia" on Radio Breeze |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR745471.aspx |
Description | "The week Britain Froze" - Channel 4 dispatches |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | March 5th 2018 - Dr Rob Thompson appeared on "The week Britain Froze" - Channel 4 dispatches - Monday Prime time television- discussed the cause of the cold spell, and possible dangers of snow melt related flooding. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8145088/?ref_=filmo_li_tt |
Description | BBC radio "Naked Scientists" |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Dr Rob Thompson was interviewed for the BBC Radio Show "Naked Scientists". He discussed weather and flood forecasting. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.thenakedscientists.com/HTML/interviews/interview/1001565/ |
Description | Blog - "We need to talk about assimilation" |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Feb 2018 Dr Ross Bannister posted a blog relating to his FFIr research. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/flooding/2018/02/02/we-need-to-talk-about-assimilation/ |
Description | Correlated observation errors: KE with ECMWF |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | A small workshop was held at ECMWF attended by ECMWF and Korean Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems staff, as well as University of Reading staff and postgraduate students. We discussed our research on correlated observation errors in data assimilation and impacts on operational weather prediction. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Drive time Simon Mayo - Are snowflakes really unique? |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | 12th December 2017 - Dr Rob Thompson appeared on "Drive time Simon Mayo" discussing "Are snowflakes really unique?" |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | FFIR Open Event at the Royal Society, November 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | At the programme showcase event at the Royal Society in November 2018 there was a hands on opportunity to interact with the challenges of flooding from intense rainfall. Alongside presentations and an expert panel debate, participants could immerse themselves in a virtual reality simulation of a flash flood, watch convective rainfall develop on a giant forecast globe and share their thoughts on the modelling and communication chains that underpin flood forecasting. The event was attended by approximately 120 people. Many participants reported that they had enjoyed the event and learned something new. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | FFIR blog and twitter |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Blog and twitter feed have sparked media and public interest resulting in a number of media engagements. A number of media engagements |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013,2014,2015,2016 |
URL | http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/flooding/blog/ |
Description | FFIR films |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | We created a film about the impacts of the FFIR programme. This was premiered at the FFIR Royal Society Open Event, and is now available online, and has been shared widely with a range of different audiences. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/flooding/ |
Description | Heart FM - Will there be a white Christmas? |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | In December 2017 Dr Rob Thompson discussed "Will there be a White Christmas?" on Heart FM |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Henley Cafe Scientifique |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Prof Anthony Illingworth gave a presentation on extreme rainfall to Henley Cafe Scientifique on December 9, 2015. Eighty-five (85) people attended the event. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Into the Blue 2016 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The FFIR programme ran a stand at the the NERC Into the Blue exhibition in Manchester, October 2016. The centre-piece was a virtual reality flood simulation. FRANC team members attended and contributed to the exhibit, that won 3rd prize in the public vote. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://intotheblue.nerc.ac.uk/ |
Description | JBA (David Flack) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | David Flack visited JBA Group Ltd, in Skipton, Yorkshire to discuss his research and a possible internship. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Media interest (Ian Roulstone) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Ian Roulstone wrote articles for CNN and the Huffington Post, sparking feedback on their websites (e.g., 72 comments on CNN article). CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/13/opinion/roulstone-snow-accumulation Huffington Post: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ian-roulstone/thunderstorms-invisible-to-weather-forecasters_b_5598750.html http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ian-roulstone/uk-weather_b_4729815.html Improved public knowledge and interest in science. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/13/opinion/roulstone-snow-accumulation |
Description | Media interest (St Jude Storm) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Rob Thompson was interviewed by several news agencies regarding the St Jude storm over the period October 26-28, 2013, including Sky News, Channel 4 News, BBC News (BBC News Channel, Radio 4, Radio 5 live). Sky News clips were also used by TalkSport, City TalkFM and Downtown Radio Belfast. Oscar Martinez-Alvarado provided comment for a website story about the storm (http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR542673.aspx). Sky News clips were used by a number of radio stations. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
URL | http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR542673.aspx |
Description | RJT Media appearances 2017 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Robert J Thompson made the following media appearances: 3 Feb - Sky news interview - On storm Doris, what is a "weather bomb"? Storm naming, and why the forecasts of such Atlantic storms are so good now. 8 May - BBC South - About the apparent "drought" in the region after a dry spell. 8 May - BBC South - About a "drought" in the Lake District and the lake hydrology. 12 Jan - UoR Video Press release - largely on social media - On Thundersnow and a forecast snow event - picked up by local and internet media (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guv7oBDeaeU - though much larger audience through other social media). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guv7oBDeaeU |
Description | RJT Radio appearances 2016 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Dr Robert Thompson participated in several radio interviews. October 2016: Sky News - Discussing Hurricane Matthew December Heart Radio and BBC Berks - Discussing white Christmas and its forecasting challenges 30 December: Radio 4 - Farming today - discussing short range forecasting of rainfall and mentioning specifically the Franc work on improving rainfall estimates using rainfall. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | School presentation, March 2017 RJT |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Outdoor observation session for school science week |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | School visit (Denton Primary School) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Dr Rob Thompson gave a presentation on weather science to primary pupils. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Weather Briefing for RMetS SE Local Centre local meetings |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Supporters |
Results and Impact | Dr Rob Thompson gave monthly weather briefing at Royal Meteorological Society's South-East local centre meetings. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018 |
URL | https://www.rmets.org/archived-events/south-east-local-centre |
Description | Year 9/10 schools visit day |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Year 9/10 schools visit day to the Department of Meteorology where they learnt about weather science |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | media interest (Spanish Plume) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Rob Thompson has had several media appearances in relation to the summer Spanish plume heavy rainfall events in early June 2014 including Heart FM, BBC Berkshire, The Guardian, The Sun, Get Bucks, Get Reading. Initial media appearances sparked further appearances. Further media enquiries |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/flooding/blog/page/2/ |