Reducing the economic impact of volcanic activity to aviation (OPEN)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Bristol
Department Name: Earth Sciences
Abstract
The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull resulted in large economic loses for the aviation industry (£1.1bn) and the subsequent impacts on the global economy were estimated at US$5bn. At the time, the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) at the UK Met Office produced regular bulletins to inform the industry of the likely location of the ash cloud and where flight should be avoided. As the eruption (and subsequent disruption) continued, the original avoid all ash policy was amended to allow flight under certain conditions. Subsequently when the larger eruption of Grimsvotn occurred in 2011 this, along with other improvements in forecasting and monitoring meant that disruption was much less and the economic impact was reduced. Despite these improvements there still remains a number of issues regarding ash monitoring, forecasting and management of airspace during ash events. The likelihood of another eruption affecting European airspace is high: on average, Iceland experiences one major event every five years and the volcanoes of Italy and N. Africa also have the potential to cause disruption. In some regions (e.g. N. Pacific, Australasia) ash causes regular disruption to flights and encounters with ash clouds still occur frequently (nine reported globally in 2009). As a result of the uncertainty in forecasting and monitoring ash clouds, the industry is continuing to turn to the research community to seek further understanding of the effects of ash on aircraft and how to apply improvements in modelling and observations operationally.
Since 2010, a number of NERC funded consortia have been undertaking world-leading research into improving observations and modelling of volcanic ash clouds. Bristol for example are leading the PURE-CREDIBLE program whose aims are to improve handling of uncertainty in natural hazards and to develop better communications between stakeholders and scientists. Within CREDIBLE, the use of probabilistic forecasting and data insertion to improve model predictions has shown significant improvements in ash forecasting. Developments of in-situ and remote sensing monitoring instruments to supplement satellite observations such as the UK lidar network, the ZEUS airborne instrument and the Met Office research aircraft are also important. A number of informal working groups have been held to initiate discussion between the researchers and the aviation industry, which have highlighted the need for improvements in how knowledge is transferred between the two groups. These one-off meetings have demonstrated that the academic perception of how data should be offered, such as how uncertainty in forecasts is represented, is very different from that expected by those responsible for operations.
The fellowship will take place over a three year period and will bring together researchers, the aviation industry and policymakers to ensure decision making during volcanic eruptions is supported by accessible and relevant data from the research community. The project will take place in a number of stages, beginning with an initial assessment of the data gaps facing the aviation industry, identification of the most critical gaps and recognising how research outputs can be translated to fill these gaps. Researchers and industry will be brought together to discuss ideas through regular stakeholder workshops and a standardised method in which data can be provided to the industry will be developed. The provision of this information to airlines, airports and other operators will allow for enhanced forward planning reducing disruption to passengers, securing aircraft availability, re-routing so more flights can go ahead even where ash is present in some regions of airspace and a reduction in wasted fuel from diverted flights. Even a small % decrease in disruption to air traffic could have large economic benefits (e.g. airlines lost an estimated $400m/day during Eyja).
Since 2010, a number of NERC funded consortia have been undertaking world-leading research into improving observations and modelling of volcanic ash clouds. Bristol for example are leading the PURE-CREDIBLE program whose aims are to improve handling of uncertainty in natural hazards and to develop better communications between stakeholders and scientists. Within CREDIBLE, the use of probabilistic forecasting and data insertion to improve model predictions has shown significant improvements in ash forecasting. Developments of in-situ and remote sensing monitoring instruments to supplement satellite observations such as the UK lidar network, the ZEUS airborne instrument and the Met Office research aircraft are also important. A number of informal working groups have been held to initiate discussion between the researchers and the aviation industry, which have highlighted the need for improvements in how knowledge is transferred between the two groups. These one-off meetings have demonstrated that the academic perception of how data should be offered, such as how uncertainty in forecasts is represented, is very different from that expected by those responsible for operations.
The fellowship will take place over a three year period and will bring together researchers, the aviation industry and policymakers to ensure decision making during volcanic eruptions is supported by accessible and relevant data from the research community. The project will take place in a number of stages, beginning with an initial assessment of the data gaps facing the aviation industry, identification of the most critical gaps and recognising how research outputs can be translated to fill these gaps. Researchers and industry will be brought together to discuss ideas through regular stakeholder workshops and a standardised method in which data can be provided to the industry will be developed. The provision of this information to airlines, airports and other operators will allow for enhanced forward planning reducing disruption to passengers, securing aircraft availability, re-routing so more flights can go ahead even where ash is present in some regions of airspace and a reduction in wasted fuel from diverted flights. Even a small % decrease in disruption to air traffic could have large economic benefits (e.g. airlines lost an estimated $400m/day during Eyja).
People |
ORCID iD |
Helen Thomas (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
Publications
Wood K
(2019)
Measurement of three dimensional volcanic plume properties using multiple ground based infrared cameras
in ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing
Prata A
(2018)
Ash Metrics for European and Trans-Atlantic Air Routes During the Eyjafjallajökull Eruption 14 April to 23 May 2010
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Albadra A
(2020)
Determining the three-dimensional structure of a volcanic plume using Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) imagery
in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Naismith A.K.
(2019)
Eruption frequency patterns through time for the current (1999-2018) activity cycle at Volcán de Fuego derived from remote sensing data: Evidence for an accelerating cycle of explosive paroxysms and potential implications of eruptive activity
in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Naismith A
(2019)
Eruption frequency patterns through time for the current (1999-2018) activity cycle at Volcán de Fuego derived from remote sensing data: Evidence for an accelerating cycle of explosive paroxysms and potential implications of eruptive activity
in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Thomas, H.E.
(2017)
Sulphur Dioxide as an Aviation Hazard: Current Capability & Understanding
Title | Creative Reactions Art Exhibition |
Description | As a part of the Creative Reactions / Pint of Science 2017, I was paired with three local artists who were tasked with developing artworks based on my research. The result was two artistic pieces by artists Prerna Chandiramia ("2010: The Skies are Shut") and Josh Gabbattis ("Fuego"). |
Type Of Art | Artwork |
Year Produced | 2017 |
Impact | The artists pieces were put on sale and public awareness of volcanic ash issues were increased through the art exhibition and explanatory panels. |
Description | I have provided advice to the UK Department for Transport and via a report have enabled their staff to better understand the problems of volcanic SO2. Through sitting on various advisory panels (SAGE, VASAG) I have contributed to policy and decision making both in the UK and globally. My work with the DGAC in Guatemala is ongoing but through an educational workshop, their staff are now more aware of volcanic ash and its hazards. The workshop contributed to the DGAC official training on volcanic ash as required by ICAO. |
First Year Of Impact | 2017 |
Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Transport |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | Interview contribution and review of POSTnote on Earth Observation (PN-0566) |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
URL | https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/POST-PN-0566 |
Description | Invitation to participate in recent Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Committee meeting (VASAG) |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | UK Government SAGE Volcano exercise |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
Description | Workshop for the DGAC (Guatemala Aviation Authority), INSIVUMEH (Geological monitoring agency) and CONRED (disaster response) on volcanic ash and aviation |
Geographic Reach | North America |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | The workshop formed a formal part of DGAC staff training to meet ICAO requirements regarding training around volcanic ash and aviation. |
Description | DFT |
Organisation | Department of Transport |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | I met with members of the DfT and discussed the volcanic gas problem, and produced a report for DfT on this matter to educate their staff. I also participated in the SAGE mock volcanic gas exercise through invitation by the DfT. |
Collaborator Contribution | Provided information and knowledge about how policy regarding volcanic gas operates. |
Impact | Report on volcanic gas and the aviation hazard to the DfT. |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | DGAC |
Organisation | Directorate General for Civil Aviation |
Country | France |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | We have developed a strong working relationship with the Guatemalan air traffic control and airport and airspace management organisation. I organised and facilitated a collaborative workshop, which formed part of the DGAC volcanic ash training requirement for ICAO. Other researchers, the Guatemalan Geological agency (INSIVUMEH) and DGAC presented at the workshop and all were involved in discussion. The expertise from the researchers has contributed to a guidance document directing DGAC to online resources and how to use them for operations. This is currently being implemented and the project is ongoing. |
Collaborator Contribution | DGAC staff presented at the workshop and took part in the ongoing discussions and have provided access to data. Their provision of expertise and knowledge has been invaluable in understanding fully the issues that affect the airport and airlines in this instance. |
Impact | DGAC Workshop. |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | DSTL |
Organisation | Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (DSTL) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | I have been contributing to the DSTL aspects of the NATO reports on volcanic ash and environmental particulates. This is in collaboration with a project led by Matt Watson (through which confidentiality agreements etc. have been developed). |
Collaborator Contribution | Expertise provided by DSTL staff has provided the required information on the military issues and how volcanic ash can affect them. |
Impact | None yet. |
Start Year | 2017 |