GLobal Insect Threat-Response Synthesis (GLiTRS): a comprehensive and predictive assessment of the pattern and consequences of insect declines
Lead Research Organisation:
Natural History Museum
Department Name: Life Sciences
Abstract
With increasing recognition of the importance of insects, there are growing concerns that insect biodiversity has declined globally, with serious consequences for ecosystem function and services. Yet, gaps in knowledge limit progress in understanding the magnitude and direction of change. Information about insect trends is fragmented, and time-series data are restricted and unrepresentative, both taxonomically and spatially. Moreover, causal links between insect trends and anthropogenic pressures are not well-established. It is, therefore, difficult to evaluate stories about "insectageddon", to understand the ecosystem consequences, to devise mitigation strategies, or predict future trends.
To address the shortfalls, we will bring together diverse sources of information, such as meta-analyses, correlative relationships and expert judgement. GLiTRS will collate these diverse lines of evidence on how insect biodiversity has changed in response to anthropogenic pressures, how responses vary according to functional traits, over space, and across biodiversity metrics (e.g. species abundance, occupancy, richness and biomass), and how insect trends drive further changes (e.g. mediated by interaction networks).
We will integrate these lines of evidence into a Threat-Response model describing trends in insect biodiversity across the globe. The model will be represented in the form of a series of probabilistic statements (a Bayesian belief network) describing relationships between insect biodiversity and anthropogenic pressures.
By challenging this "Threat-Response model" to predict trends for taxa and places where high-quality time series data exist, we will identify insect groups and regions for which indirect data sources are a) sufficient for predicting recent trends, b) inadequate, or c) too uncertain. Knowledge about the predictability of threat-response relationships will allow projections - with uncertainty estimates - of how insect biodiversity has changed globally, across all major taxa, functional groups and biomes.
This global perspective on recent trends will provide the basis for an exploration of the consequences of insect decline for a range of ecosystem functions and services, as well as how biodiversity and ecosystem properties might be affected by plausible scenarios of future environmental change.
GLiTRS is an ambitious and innovative research program: two features are particularly ground-breaking. First, the collation of multiple forms of evidence will permit a truly global perspective on insect declines that is unachievable using conventional approaches. Second, by validating "prior knowledge" (from evidence synthesis) with recent trends, we will assess the degree to which insect declines are predictable, and at what scales.
To address the shortfalls, we will bring together diverse sources of information, such as meta-analyses, correlative relationships and expert judgement. GLiTRS will collate these diverse lines of evidence on how insect biodiversity has changed in response to anthropogenic pressures, how responses vary according to functional traits, over space, and across biodiversity metrics (e.g. species abundance, occupancy, richness and biomass), and how insect trends drive further changes (e.g. mediated by interaction networks).
We will integrate these lines of evidence into a Threat-Response model describing trends in insect biodiversity across the globe. The model will be represented in the form of a series of probabilistic statements (a Bayesian belief network) describing relationships between insect biodiversity and anthropogenic pressures.
By challenging this "Threat-Response model" to predict trends for taxa and places where high-quality time series data exist, we will identify insect groups and regions for which indirect data sources are a) sufficient for predicting recent trends, b) inadequate, or c) too uncertain. Knowledge about the predictability of threat-response relationships will allow projections - with uncertainty estimates - of how insect biodiversity has changed globally, across all major taxa, functional groups and biomes.
This global perspective on recent trends will provide the basis for an exploration of the consequences of insect decline for a range of ecosystem functions and services, as well as how biodiversity and ecosystem properties might be affected by plausible scenarios of future environmental change.
GLiTRS is an ambitious and innovative research program: two features are particularly ground-breaking. First, the collation of multiple forms of evidence will permit a truly global perspective on insect declines that is unachievable using conventional approaches. Second, by validating "prior knowledge" (from evidence synthesis) with recent trends, we will assess the degree to which insect declines are predictable, and at what scales.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
Andy Purvis (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Jaureguiberry P
(2022)
The direct drivers of recent global anthropogenic biodiversity loss.
in Science advances
Johnson TF
(2023)
Achieving a real-time online monitoring system for conservation culturomics.
in Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Millard J
(2023)
Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use.
in Science advances
Skinner G
(2023)
Dynameta: A dynamic platform for ecological meta-analyses in R Shiny
in SoftwareX
VerĂssimo D
(2023)
Adopt digital tools to monitor social dimensions of the global biodiversity framework
in Conservation Letters
Description | Land-use change has been the most important direct driver of recent biodiversity loss on land and in freshwater, with climate change only fourth (behind direct exploitation of organisms and pollution). The most comprehensive and rigorous synthesis to date of studies that compared multiple direct drivers showed that this ranking is consistent among major geographic regions but varies among different kinds of biodiversity variable; for example, climate change is a more important driver of community composition change than of changes in species populations. Insects, other invertebrates and plants remain under-studied compared with vertebrates, highlighting the need for the kind of understanding that GLiTRS is aiming to provide. Stopping biodiversity loss will require policies and actions to tackle all of the major direct drivers and their interactions, not focusing on some to the exclusion of others. |
Exploitation Route | The results of this study were widely reported in the media and were prominent at the Convention on Biological Diversity's COP15 in Montreal in December 2022. They highlight the need to tackle the full range of drivers of biodiversity loss, rather than focusing too strongly on any single driver. |
Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment |
Title | A preregistration guidance document for the production and collation of meta-analyses for the GLiTRS project |
Description | This preregistration document sets out how meta-analyses will be performed and collated for GLiTRS (GLobal Insect Threat-Response Synthesis; see https://glitrs.ceh.ac.uk/), such that we can combine the results of multiple meta-analyses to build a global threat-response model of insect biodiversity change. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | In this document we describe the GLiTRS meta-analytical approach, with a focus on understanding the relationship between threats (e.g. invasive species, pollution, climate change) and insect biodiversity. This preregistration represents an ambitious approach to the standardisation of meta-analytic data from across multiple insect biodiversity meta-analyses, which as far as we know has not been attempted in this manner before. |
URL | https://osf.io/jw3gh |
Title | Dynameta: a dynamic platform for ecological meta-analyses in R Shiny |
Description | Dynameta is a living-review (i.e. continually updateable) R Shiny platform for interactive ecological meta-analyses, oriented around testing the effect of anthropogenic threats on biodiversity. This platform is written as an R package and highly generalisable, such that it can be applied in the context of any meta-analytic PICO (Population, Intervention, Comparator, and Outcome) question concerning the effect of any threat on any taxonomic group, for any biodiversity metric and with relevance to all geographic regions. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | Our hope is that Dynameta can help encourage the broader adoption of dynamic meta-analyses in ecology. On GLiTRS we will be using Dynameta for the collection and standardisation of insect biodiversity meta-analytic data. |
URL | https://github.com/gls21/Dynameta |
Description | CBD COP15, Montreal, Canada |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Prof Purvis attended CBD COP15 in Montreal, speaking at a side-event and a public outreach event, and - throughout the duration of COP - using the Econario artwork to show the potential benefits of action and costs of inaction in terms of likely future biodiversity outcomes, and as a prompt for broader discussions about the status and trends in biodiversity and biodiversity knowledge. Many of the policymakers and others said that Econario had brought home to them what was at stake and made them think differently about future consequences of today's decisions. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=is0j1m5vGLo&ab_channel=ThijsBiersteker |
Description | Expert Elicitation Workshop at NHM |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Expert elicitation workshop to refine workshop process and to obtain initial rankings of the importance of drivers of biodiversity change in different insect orders. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |