GLobal Insect Threat-Response Synthesis (GLiTRS): a comprehensive and predictive assessment of the pattern and consequences of insect declines
Lead Research Organisation:
UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
Department Name: Biodiversity (Wallingford)
Abstract
With increasing recognition of the importance of insects, there are growing concerns that insect biodiversity has declined globally, with serious consequences for ecosystem function and services. Yet, gaps in knowledge limit progress in understanding the magnitude and direction of change. Information about insect trends is fragmented, and time-series data are restricted and unrepresentative, both taxonomically and spatially. Moreover, causal links between insect trends and anthropogenic pressures are not well-established. It is, therefore, difficult to evaluate stories about "insectageddon", to understand the ecosystem consequences, to devise mitigation strategies, or predict future trends.
To address the shortfalls, we will bring together diverse sources of information, such as meta-analyses, correlative relationships and expert judgement. GLiTRS will collate these diverse lines of evidence on how insect biodiversity has changed in response to anthropogenic pressures, how responses vary according to functional traits, over space, and across biodiversity metrics (e.g. species abundance, occupancy, richness and biomass), and how insect trends drive further changes (e.g. mediated by interaction networks).
We will integrate these lines of evidence into a Threat-Response model describing trends in insect biodiversity across the globe. The model will be represented in the form of a series of probabilistic statements (a Bayesian belief network) describing relationships between insect biodiversity and anthropogenic pressures.
By challenging this "Threat-Response model" to predict trends for taxa and places where high-quality time series data exist, we will identify insect groups and regions for which indirect data sources are a) sufficient for predicting recent trends, b) inadequate, or c) too uncertain. Knowledge about the predictability of threat-response relationships will allow projections - with uncertainty estimates - of how insect biodiversity has changed globally, across all major taxa, functional groups and biomes.
This global perspective on recent trends will provide the basis for an exploration of the consequences of insect decline for a range of ecosystem functions and services, as well as how biodiversity and ecosystem properties might be affected by plausible scenarios of future environmental change.
GLiTRS is an ambitious and innovative research program: two features are particularly ground-breaking. First, the collation of multiple forms of evidence will permit a truly global perspective on insect declines that is unachievable using conventional approaches. Second, by validating "prior knowledge" (from evidence synthesis) with recent trends, we will assess the degree to which insect declines are predictable, and at what scales.
To address the shortfalls, we will bring together diverse sources of information, such as meta-analyses, correlative relationships and expert judgement. GLiTRS will collate these diverse lines of evidence on how insect biodiversity has changed in response to anthropogenic pressures, how responses vary according to functional traits, over space, and across biodiversity metrics (e.g. species abundance, occupancy, richness and biomass), and how insect trends drive further changes (e.g. mediated by interaction networks).
We will integrate these lines of evidence into a Threat-Response model describing trends in insect biodiversity across the globe. The model will be represented in the form of a series of probabilistic statements (a Bayesian belief network) describing relationships between insect biodiversity and anthropogenic pressures.
By challenging this "Threat-Response model" to predict trends for taxa and places where high-quality time series data exist, we will identify insect groups and regions for which indirect data sources are a) sufficient for predicting recent trends, b) inadequate, or c) too uncertain. Knowledge about the predictability of threat-response relationships will allow projections - with uncertainty estimates - of how insect biodiversity has changed globally, across all major taxa, functional groups and biomes.
This global perspective on recent trends will provide the basis for an exploration of the consequences of insect decline for a range of ecosystem functions and services, as well as how biodiversity and ecosystem properties might be affected by plausible scenarios of future environmental change.
GLiTRS is an ambitious and innovative research program: two features are particularly ground-breaking. First, the collation of multiple forms of evidence will permit a truly global perspective on insect declines that is unachievable using conventional approaches. Second, by validating "prior knowledge" (from evidence synthesis) with recent trends, we will assess the degree to which insect declines are predictable, and at what scales.
Organisations
- UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY (Lead Research Organisation)
- University of Nevada (Collaboration)
- Insect Research Systems (Collaboration)
- Rothamsted Research (Project Partner)
- University of Canberra (Project Partner)
- Butterfly Conservation (Project Partner)
- German Ctr for Integ Biodiv Res (iDiv) (Project Partner)
- Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (Project Partner)
- University of Nevada Reno (Project Partner)
- Finnish Environment Institute (Project Partner)
Publications
Vimercati G
(2022)
The EICAT+ framework enables classification of positive impacts of alien taxa on native biodiversity.
in PLoS biology
Skinner G
(2023)
Dynameta: A dynamic platform for ecological meta-analyses in R Shiny
in SoftwareX
Mancini F
(2023)
Invertebrate biodiversity continues to decline in cropland.
in Proceedings. Biological sciences
Luke S
(2023)
Grand challenges in entomology: Priorities for action in the coming decades
in Insect Conservation and Diversity
Hui C
(2023)
Disentangling the relationships among abundance, invasiveness and invasibility in trait space
in npj Biodiversity
Hui C
(2024)
Editorial: Biodiversity informatics: building a lifeboat for high functionality data to decision pipeline
in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
Greenop A
(2023)
Using functional traits to predict pollination services: A review
in Journal of Pollination Ecology
Cooke R
(2023)
Protected areas support more species than unprotected areas in Great Britain, but lose them equally rapidly
in Biological Conservation
Basel A
(2021)
Assemblage reorganization of South African dragonflies due to climate change
in Diversity and Distributions
Description | EntoGEM |
Organisation | University of Nevada |
Country | United States |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | the GLiTRS team have built a relational database to store insect population time-series. We are providing a storage location for data generated by the EntoGEM team. Together we will create a global database of insect time-series. |
Collaborator Contribution | the EntoGEM project aims to create a Global Evidence Map (GEM) for insects. This is a database of studies, created from a systematic literature review, on insect population trends. The EntoGEM team have produced GEMs for two insect orders: Odonata and Lepidoptera. They are now in the process of extracting the data for Lepidoptera, which will be stored in the GLiTRS database. The two teams will work together to co-create (with GLiTRS) a meta-analysis of trends for this group. |
Impact | none yet |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | State of Insects RCN |
Organisation | Insect Research Systems |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | In collaboration with the RCN, we wrote a proposal for a Round Table event at the forthcoming international Congress on Conservation Biology. |
Collaborator Contribution | RCN is a network of US researchers on insect biodiversity. At present, this collaboration is nascent, but members of the organising committee supported our proposal for a Round Table event at a forthcoming international conference. |
Impact | none yet |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | A talk by Dr Nick Isaac at Edinburgh Science Festival |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Talk presented at the virtual Edinburgh Science Festival 2021, followed by a panel discussion on the causes and consequences of insect declines. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Coauthor of talk at CIEEM (Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Talk about insect declines to a conference of environmental managers |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Expert elicitation event at Ecological Society of America conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Experts were asked to rank threats to specific insect groups. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Expert elicitation event at International Congress of Entomology |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Event to rank threats to specific insect orders |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Interview for podcast on insect declines |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Interview for podcast on insect declines, 25/7/22 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Interview on Woman's Hour on Neonicotinoids |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Ben Woodcock was interviewed on Woman's Hour (BBC Radio 4) about impact of neonicotinoid pesticides on pollinators |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Talk at Festival of Pollinators |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Ben Woodcock presented a talk on pollinator declines at POLLINIS - FESTIVAL DES POLLINISATEURS ET DES ABEILLES |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://info.pollinis.org/festival-des-pollinisateurs-groix-2022/ |
Description | Talk on insect declines in agricultural systems at ECCB |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Ben Woodcock presented a talk on insect declines in agricultural systems at European Congress on Conservation Biology |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.eccb2022.eu/en/general |
Description | Talk on insect declines to Essex Beekepers association |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Ben Woodcock presented a talk on insect declines at Essex Beekepers association |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Talk on pollinator declines (Inverness) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Ben Woodcock presented a talk on insect declines at Invernesshire Beekepers association |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Talk to West Sussex beekepers |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Ben Woodcock presented a talk on insect declines at West Sussex Beekepers association |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Times Radio interview: Bugs Matter |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Times Radio interview: Bugs Matter, 5/5/22 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |