An Interdisciplinary Approach to Understanding Past, Present and Future Flood Risk in Viet Nam
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Bristol
Department Name: Geographical Sciences
Abstract
The impact of hydro-meteorological hazards is jointly determined by environmental and social factors. These interactions between environmental change and human responses generate great uncertainty when evaluating household vulnerability. In low-income countries, hydro-meteorological risks have been evolving due to climate change, changes in agricultural exploitation, changes in household mitigation strategies and waterway engineering activities related to hydropower and agriculture. In addition, flood risk itself affects the economic decisions of households in the short- and longer-run.
The proposed research will advance our understanding of how hydro-physical and socio-economic conditions and processes interact. Our novel, interdisciplinary approach will advance current knowledge and methods in both the physical and social sciences through the development of:
1) A technique for producing socio-physical flood models that account for interactions and feedback between social actors and physical systems;
2) A method for generating high-resolution social vulnerability maps based solely on remotely sensed data.
Within the context of Vietnam specifically our research will generate:
3) Detailed, multidimensional models of household-level risk and resilience strategies within communes in the Central Highlands;
4) High resolution maps of social vulnerability in the Central Highlands validated with household-level survey data;
5) A socio-physical flood risk model for the Central Highlands;
6) Scenario projections that outline potential future risks based on possible changes in key hydro-physical parameters, socioeconomic conditions, land use, household mitigation strategies, and public interventions.
Our geographical focus on the Central Highlands is informed by a clear dearth of recent research into flood risk in this area relative to other regions, such as the Mekong Delta and coastal areas in recent years, and by the major socio-economic changes affecting the region (rural-urban migration, changes in cropping patterns and investment, intensification of floodplain activity).
Our models, maps and scenarios for communities in the Central Highlands will be developed by integrating state-of-the-art hydrodynamic flood models, satellite imagery, detailed land-use maps, household survey data and field experiments. The results will improve our ability to predict and mitigate the impacts of hydrological hazards in the Central Highlands of Vietnam specifically, but also in other regions affected by similar hazards. To our knowledge, our proposal is the first one to combine a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic flood model with data on resilience strategies and economic activities that is geo-located at the household level anywhere in the world. This contribution will allow us to incorporate household resilience when projecting future scenarios and thus make a significant contribution to policy-relevant knowledge, while also providing new modelling methods that could be applied in other regions.
The proposed research will advance our understanding of how hydro-physical and socio-economic conditions and processes interact. Our novel, interdisciplinary approach will advance current knowledge and methods in both the physical and social sciences through the development of:
1) A technique for producing socio-physical flood models that account for interactions and feedback between social actors and physical systems;
2) A method for generating high-resolution social vulnerability maps based solely on remotely sensed data.
Within the context of Vietnam specifically our research will generate:
3) Detailed, multidimensional models of household-level risk and resilience strategies within communes in the Central Highlands;
4) High resolution maps of social vulnerability in the Central Highlands validated with household-level survey data;
5) A socio-physical flood risk model for the Central Highlands;
6) Scenario projections that outline potential future risks based on possible changes in key hydro-physical parameters, socioeconomic conditions, land use, household mitigation strategies, and public interventions.
Our geographical focus on the Central Highlands is informed by a clear dearth of recent research into flood risk in this area relative to other regions, such as the Mekong Delta and coastal areas in recent years, and by the major socio-economic changes affecting the region (rural-urban migration, changes in cropping patterns and investment, intensification of floodplain activity).
Our models, maps and scenarios for communities in the Central Highlands will be developed by integrating state-of-the-art hydrodynamic flood models, satellite imagery, detailed land-use maps, household survey data and field experiments. The results will improve our ability to predict and mitigate the impacts of hydrological hazards in the Central Highlands of Vietnam specifically, but also in other regions affected by similar hazards. To our knowledge, our proposal is the first one to combine a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic flood model with data on resilience strategies and economic activities that is geo-located at the household level anywhere in the world. This contribution will allow us to incorporate household resilience when projecting future scenarios and thus make a significant contribution to policy-relevant knowledge, while also providing new modelling methods that could be applied in other regions.
Planned Impact
The project aims to deepen our understanding of socio-economic vulnerability to hydro-meteorological hazards in the Central Highlands, Vietnam. The project addresses a question that is central in Vietnam and other low-income economies of South-East Asia: it proposes to quantify the impact of flood exposure on welfare, accounting for the nature of economic activities, and the existence of risk-mitigating instruments and post-disaster support. Three aspects of the proposed research are crucial to maximise potential impact. First, the project will generate state-of-the-art socio-economic flood hazard maps at a high resolution, for the Central Highlands but using a method that could be applied across Vietnam as a whole. Second, the project will consider a wide range of projections incorporating climate change and trends in land use and households resilience strategies. Third, the project will incorporate a detailed analysis of households resilience strategies and provide a welfare analysis based on a theoretical model. This quantitative approach thus allows to evaluate the household response to a wide range of environmental policies.
The proposed research will assemble a high-resolution hydrodynamic model, unique geo-referenced household data and satellite imagery to produce socio-economic flood hazard maps. The produced data will be useful for natural disaster prevention and control activities. As the research output will integrate flood exposure, economic activity at risk, and household strategic response. The project will provide a quantitative framework whose role is to provide (i) a better understanding of household resilience strategies, (ii) a welfare analysis (a quantification of vulnerability to flood exposure) and (iii) a set of policy evaluations for environmental policies, focusing on their possible heterogeneous effects across households. The following environmental and urban policies could be evaluated (based on Viet Nam: Law on natural disaster prevention and control, 2013): (P1) targeted-subsidies for agricultural activities in high-risk areas, (P2) resource mobilisation to invest in commune-level infrastructure (irrigation, natural disaster funds), (P3) development of specific insurance products. The final set of policy scenarios will be elaborated after a meeting with key stakeholders (see below).
Relevant users of research: The research will be useful to policymaking institutions in Vietnam and other low-income economies of South-East Asia. We have identified the following institutions in Vietnam as key end users: the Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE), which belongs to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE); the Department of Water Resources Management (DWRM), also part of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment; the Provincial Peoples Committee of Dak Lak; the Provincial Peoples Committee of Lam Dong; the Central Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control (CCNDPC); the Vietnam Red Cross.
For dissemination activities, we will first and foremost rely on the existing network of Dr Nam and Dr Thuy, in particular the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA). Through its publications and the organisation of specific events for government policymakers and other end users, the EEPSEA, led by lead Dr Nam, is the most important research dissemination network for environmental economics in South-East Asia.
The proposed research will assemble a high-resolution hydrodynamic model, unique geo-referenced household data and satellite imagery to produce socio-economic flood hazard maps. The produced data will be useful for natural disaster prevention and control activities. As the research output will integrate flood exposure, economic activity at risk, and household strategic response. The project will provide a quantitative framework whose role is to provide (i) a better understanding of household resilience strategies, (ii) a welfare analysis (a quantification of vulnerability to flood exposure) and (iii) a set of policy evaluations for environmental policies, focusing on their possible heterogeneous effects across households. The following environmental and urban policies could be evaluated (based on Viet Nam: Law on natural disaster prevention and control, 2013): (P1) targeted-subsidies for agricultural activities in high-risk areas, (P2) resource mobilisation to invest in commune-level infrastructure (irrigation, natural disaster funds), (P3) development of specific insurance products. The final set of policy scenarios will be elaborated after a meeting with key stakeholders (see below).
Relevant users of research: The research will be useful to policymaking institutions in Vietnam and other low-income economies of South-East Asia. We have identified the following institutions in Vietnam as key end users: the Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE), which belongs to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE); the Department of Water Resources Management (DWRM), also part of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment; the Provincial Peoples Committee of Dak Lak; the Provincial Peoples Committee of Lam Dong; the Central Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control (CCNDPC); the Vietnam Red Cross.
For dissemination activities, we will first and foremost rely on the existing network of Dr Nam and Dr Thuy, in particular the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA). Through its publications and the organisation of specific events for government policymakers and other end users, the EEPSEA, led by lead Dr Nam, is the most important research dissemination network for environmental economics in South-East Asia.
Publications
Archer L
(2024)
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Bates P
(2022)
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
Bates P
(2023)
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Devitt L
(2023)
Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns.
in Nature communications
Emerton R
(2020)
Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response
in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Hawker L
(2020)
Comparing earth observation and inundation models to map flood hazards
in Environmental Research Letters
Description | This research has created the most accurate a detailed dataset to date on flood hazards in Vietnam and a new nationwide digital elevation model. The data are openly available on the internet. These data have supported the development of a significantly more nuanced and precise view of flood hazards and risks in Vietnam. The research has facilitated the identification of risk hotspots and their sensitivity to climate change. Fieldwork in the central highlands has also provided new insights into how labor and support networks in rural communities can help to manage flood risks. |
Exploitation Route | Methods developed and tested in this project are now being applied globally within the next generation of global flood hazard and risk datsets. These help to support disaster risk reduction and risk management across a wide range of applications from humanitarian response during disasters to catastrophe modelling in the insurance and financial sectors. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | This research has contributed towards the next generation of global flood models used by governments, commercial and humanitarian organization to help manage flood disaster risks. These data are used for applications ranging from the management of assets in an insurance portfolio to the provision of aid during disasters. Data science methods developed in this project have also contributed towards new global digital elevations models that are fundamental to many geoscience applications. Specifically we develop the first global elevation model at 30 m resolution where the terrain is not biased by surface vegetation and buildings. |
First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Economic |
Description | Combining satellite imagery and machine learning to target social protection in Pakistan |
Amount | $81,160 (USD) |
Organisation | Center for Effective Global Action |
Sector | Public |
Country | United States |
Start | 12/2020 |
End | 12/2021 |
Description | Comparing UKCP Local And RCM Data As Drivers For UK Flood Hazard Estimation |
Amount | £95,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2021 |
End | 03/2022 |
Description | FUTURE-FLOOD: New estimates of evolving UK flood risk for improved climate resilience |
Amount | £1,000,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/X014134/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 07/2023 |
End | 07/2027 |
Description | Flood EW Pilot Project |
Amount | £100,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | DER6401: DAI EACDS Lot B |
Organisation | Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2020 |
End | 08/2021 |
Description | Flood Early Warning Pilot Study: Phase 2 |
Amount | £100,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2021 |
End | 07/2022 |
Description | Floods, risk diversification and livelihoods in the Central Highlands of Vietnam |
Amount | £100,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | TGC\200149 |
Organisation | The British Academy |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2021 |
End | 12/2022 |
Description | Resilience And Preparedness To Tropical Cyclones Across Southern Africa |
Amount | $8,000,000 (CAD) |
Organisation | International Development Research Centre |
Sector | Public |
Country | Canada |
Start | 04/2023 |
End | 03/2027 |
Description | THE EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL FLOOD HAZARD AND RISK |
Amount | £473,050 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/S015639/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2021 |
End | 11/2026 |
Description | The UK contribution to validating SWOT in the Bristol Channel and River Severn, with application to coastal and river management |
Amount | £98,271 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/V009125/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2021 |
End | 01/2025 |
Title | FABDEM |
Description | FABDEM (Forest And Buildings removed Copernicus DEM) is a global elevation map that removes building and tree height biases from the Copernicus GLO 30 Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The data is available at 1 arc second grid spacing (approximately 30m at the equator) for the globe. The FABDEM dataset is licensed under a Creative Commons "CC BY-NC-SA 4.0" license. For commercial use queries, please contact fabdem@fathom.global This dataset is published in support of the paper "A 30 m global map of elevation with forests and buildings removed" published by IOP in Environmental Research Letters at https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4d4f. *UPDATE 14/03/2022* - Tile N00E011_FABDEM_V1-0.tif was corrupted and has now been replaced. This has been reflected in the geotiff tags with the following text "NOTE=This file is a replacement for originally corrupted file for tile N00E011" -mo "UPDATED=2022-02-23"" |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/25wfy0f9ukoge2gs7a5mqpq2j7/ |
Title | FABDEM V1-2 |
Description | FABDEM V1-2, an update on FABDEM V1-0. Changes detailed in FABDEM-V1-2 Changelog.pdf. FABDEM (Forest And Buildings removed Copernicus DEM) is a global elevation map that removes building and tree height biases from the Copernicus GLO 30 Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The data is available at 1 arc second grid spacing (approximately 30m at the equator) for the globe. The FABDEM dataset is licensed under a Creative Commons "CC BY-NC-SA 4.0" license. For commercial use queries, please contact fabdem@fathom.global This dataset is published in support of the paper "A 30 m global map of elevation with forests and buildings removed" published by IOP in Environmental Research Letters at https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4d4f. A geojson of FABDEM tiles now also included A previous version of this dataset is available as FABDEM V1-0 at https://doi.org/10.5523/bris.25wfy0f9ukoge2gs7a5mqpq2j7 |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/s5hqmjcdj8yo2ibzi9b4ew3sn/ |
Title | FloodHazard_Mozambique |
Description | These data are presented in the publication: Estimating river channel bathymetry in large scale flood inundation models Jeffrey Neal1,2, Laurence Hawker1, James Savage2, Michael Durand3, Paul Bates1,2, Christopher Sampson2 1 School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK. BS8 1SS 2 Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Clifton, Bristol, UK. BS8 1HB 3 School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, USA. Corresponding author: Jeffrey Neal (j.neal@bristol.ac.uk) |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/1nb9rr1ziuj2n2uxg2cs46cun2/ |
Title | Forest and Buildings Removed Digital Elevation Model (FABDEM) |
Description | Global DEM with forests and buildings removed |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Underpins the Fathom Global Flood Model |
URL | https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/25wfy0f9ukoge2gs7a5mqpq2j7 |
Title | Forest and Buildings Removed Digital Elevation Model (FABDEM) Vietnam |
Description | DEM for Vietnam with forests and buildings removed |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Fully open 30 m resolution DEM for Vietnam, used to support flood hazard mapping |
URL | https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/20egxk888rljr25vst4u3nhnyz |
Title | LISFLOOD-FP open source version |
Description | The LISFLOOD-FP flood inundation model has ben develped over the past two decades as a computationally efficient means of simulating floodplain inundation. its widely used in research for flood risk mapping and modelling studies. Over 200 scientific publications have made use of the model. For the first time an open source version has been made available to the research community. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | LISFLOOD-FP is used by a range of national and international research groups for flood inundation modelling and training. |
URL | https://zenodo.org/record/4073011#.YD4TNpdxeUk |