Secondary forest permanence in the Brazilian Amazon

NERC : Charlotte Caroline Smith : NE/L002604/1

As atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to rise, there is a growing need to focus our attention on climate change mitigation. In order to keep the global surface temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid dangerous climate change, large quantities of carbon dioxide need to be removed from the atmosphere. Forest restoration is one of the most efficient and cost-effective strategies for achieving this, with tropical secondary forest key to recovering carbon stocks. The carbon benefit of secondary forest, which grows on cleared land following abandonment, is determined not only by its extent but also by its permanence. However, the patterns of secondary forest persistence are complex and our understanding of them is limited. A better understanding of this system will allow more realistic estimates of secondary forest carbon potential and will enable forest restoration efforts to be targeted more effectively. Although some studies have estimated the likelihood of persistence on a local scale, no such predictions exist across large regions. This limits our understanding of the tropical carbon balance, which is fundamental in regulating global climate. Secondary forest is a valuable resource and it is vital that we improve our understanding of it so we can ensure its potential carbon benefits are achieved.

Drawing on previous work, we will expand local-scale models of secondary forest dynamics to encompass the entire Brazilian Amazon. We will model the probability of secondary forest growth and clearance using landscape factors (e.g. distance from roads) and forest characteristics (e.g. patch size) known to influence forest permanence and estimate the carbon potential of future secondary forest cover. This is a first step in improving our understanding of an ecosystem with increasing ecological and economic importance so that it can be appropriately accounted for in future policy decisions.

Climate change is a global challenge, affecting economies and communities indiscriminately. As policy-makers around the world seek to understand how it can be mitigated, reforestation presents one of the most efficient, cost-effective and readily available strategies for preventing a climate disaster2. This project will contribute to ensuring that we have a sufficient understanding of secondary forest ecosystems which, if harnessed effectively, could act as a buffer while we transition to sustainable, fossil-fuel free economies. The Brazilian Amazon is vast and changes in its carbon balance have climate implications of global significance. In conducting this research across the entire region, we extend its relevance beyond local decision-makers into the international climate policy arena. The outputs will be relevant for international collaborations modelling future climate, policymakers interested in harnessing regeneration for carbon storage, and the broader scientific community studying the tropical carbon balance.

Beyond scientific output, this project will foster a lasting, collaborative relationship between two leading universities. It will combine the ecology and biodiversity expertise of Lancaster University with the remote sensing and spatial analysis specialties of the group at the University of British Columbia; resulting in innovative new research that pushes the boundaries of current environmental models. This interdisciplinary collaboration will enable the sharing of resources to break down former technological and data-access barriers to generate increased impact and streamline the research process. Joint research efforts will enable the sharing of world-class facilities and will facilitate the development of graduate students into highly skilled, global citizens.