The physics controlling radiation belt dynamics
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Mullard Space Science Laboratory
Abstract
This research will investigate the physical processes governing 'Space Weather' effects within the regions of near-Earth space known as the inner and outer radiation belts. Times when the energetic particle content of the Earth's radiation belts becomes dramatically enhanced are of great 'Space Weather' interest. The adverse consequences of radiation belt enhancements for both satellite infrastructure operating within the radiation belts and to ground-based systems which magnetically map to these regions can have a significant socio-economic impact. The UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies has classified Space Weather as a new risk with relatively high chance of occurrence and high impact on UK society. According to senior science advisors to the UK Prime Minister and the US President, the potential cost of an extreme Space Weather event is estimated as $2 Trillion in the following year, in the U.S. alone, with a projected need for a 4-10 year recovery period. Moreover, particles escaping from the radiation belts during these disturbed periods are also predicted to have some impact on atmospheric chemistry and as a result global temperature by altering Nitrogen Oxide levels in the upper atmosphere. Thus research into physical processes governing Space Weather effects in general and the dynamics of the Earth's inner and outer radiation belts in particular is required to not only learn how to mitigate the socio-economic impact of these disturbances but also to more fully understand global climate change.
During disturbed Space Weather events the radiation belts may become energised, depleted or completely disappear, and sometimes simply move toward or away from the Earth. In fact, observations demonstrate that during certain events a third belt can form. These abrupt and dramatic changes are thought to be the result of electromagnetic waves trapping particles in the radiation belts, transporting particles through the belts, and scattering particles into the Earth's atmosphere. At present, none of these processes are fully understood, and the links and interactions between the various drivers of these processes need to be better quantified in order to move our understanding of the dynamics of the radiation belts forward.
The ultimate goal of this research is thus to determine the types of electromagnetic waves which control particle dynamics in the radiation belts and to discover the conditions under which these interactions lead to the energisation, depletion, and/or movement of the belts. This research will allow the development predictive physics-based models which can forecast the state of the radiation belts in order to help develop strategies to mitigate the effects of space weather on modern society.
During disturbed Space Weather events the radiation belts may become energised, depleted or completely disappear, and sometimes simply move toward or away from the Earth. In fact, observations demonstrate that during certain events a third belt can form. These abrupt and dramatic changes are thought to be the result of electromagnetic waves trapping particles in the radiation belts, transporting particles through the belts, and scattering particles into the Earth's atmosphere. At present, none of these processes are fully understood, and the links and interactions between the various drivers of these processes need to be better quantified in order to move our understanding of the dynamics of the radiation belts forward.
The ultimate goal of this research is thus to determine the types of electromagnetic waves which control particle dynamics in the radiation belts and to discover the conditions under which these interactions lead to the energisation, depletion, and/or movement of the belts. This research will allow the development predictive physics-based models which can forecast the state of the radiation belts in order to help develop strategies to mitigate the effects of space weather on modern society.
Planned Impact
As discussed in the Academic Beneficiaries section, there are numerous institutions that will benefit from this research. The overarching objective, to determine the power spectra, and thus relative effect, of all waves in the magnetosphere that can take part in radiation belt dynamics as a function of external and internal driving conditions and local time, is of paramount importance to those institutions engaged in predictive simulations of radiation belt dynamics. At present, many assumptions about wave characteristics at specific frequencies are made in order to try to include the effects of these waves into state-of-the-art radiation belt diffusion models. The result of this work will be a parameterisation of wave power as a function of frequency, across all relevant frequencies, in a single functional form. No wave frequency range will be excluded; indeed, previously excluded wave modes that may also interact with radiation belt particles will be incorporated This project will also identify whether there is significantly more wave power in any single wave mode during storms that accelerate, transport or empty the radiation belts, which will be of great interest to those same institutions. New state-of-the-art wave generation models will also be able to be tested using the results from this study.
Space Weather is now included in the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. Providing information directly relevant to predictive space weather modelling efforts is the first step towards providing advance warning for low-frequency, but high-consequence events such as those identified by the top UK and US Science Advisors (Holdren and Beddington, 2010) who warn "The potential total cost of an extreme Space Weather event is estimated as $2 Trillion in year 1 in the U.S. alone, with a 4-10 year recovery period". The Meteorological Office is responsible for providing space weather predictive capability and will directly benefit from the improved knowledge of the radiation belts that this project will provide. The Global Positioning System (GPS), and their European counterparts in Galileo, may be a primary benefactor of our research. The combination of large-amplitude electromagnetic waves and loss of particles from the radiation belts into the ionosphere leads to large and currently unpredictable changes in the density of the ionosphere. The accuracy of location information provided by GNSS is significantly degraded during periods of rapid ionospheric change that result from the direct action of radiation belt dynamics. Many industries rely upon GPS for their remarkable precision timing to 100 billionths of a second, synchronizing networks, computers or instruments. GPS technology is also used heavily in precision farming, including spraying and harvest, for snow removal in the US, and for vessels to determine their location precisely at sea anywhere on the globe. More generally, the effects of space weather can be felt in all activities that use space-related assets. For example, during the October-November 2003 geomagnetic storms the effects of space weather were included in a (US) National Weather Service report for the first time.
This proposed research will contribute to the reaching UK policy goals and enhancing UK economic competitiveness by providing crucial missing information on the dynamics and causes of radiation belt events. Realistic goals for the project will be the characterisation of all waves that contribute to radiation belt dynamics, crucial inputs into predictive radiation belt dynamics models essential for prediction of low frequency, high consequence events such as the Carrington storm of 1859 and the Halloween storms in October-November 2003. The research and professional skills that the PDRA will develop during this project will be in computational programming, the processing large datasets and clear scientific reasoning, which are all applicable to many employment sectors.
Space Weather is now included in the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. Providing information directly relevant to predictive space weather modelling efforts is the first step towards providing advance warning for low-frequency, but high-consequence events such as those identified by the top UK and US Science Advisors (Holdren and Beddington, 2010) who warn "The potential total cost of an extreme Space Weather event is estimated as $2 Trillion in year 1 in the U.S. alone, with a 4-10 year recovery period". The Meteorological Office is responsible for providing space weather predictive capability and will directly benefit from the improved knowledge of the radiation belts that this project will provide. The Global Positioning System (GPS), and their European counterparts in Galileo, may be a primary benefactor of our research. The combination of large-amplitude electromagnetic waves and loss of particles from the radiation belts into the ionosphere leads to large and currently unpredictable changes in the density of the ionosphere. The accuracy of location information provided by GNSS is significantly degraded during periods of rapid ionospheric change that result from the direct action of radiation belt dynamics. Many industries rely upon GPS for their remarkable precision timing to 100 billionths of a second, synchronizing networks, computers or instruments. GPS technology is also used heavily in precision farming, including spraying and harvest, for snow removal in the US, and for vessels to determine their location precisely at sea anywhere on the globe. More generally, the effects of space weather can be felt in all activities that use space-related assets. For example, during the October-November 2003 geomagnetic storms the effects of space weather were included in a (US) National Weather Service report for the first time.
This proposed research will contribute to the reaching UK policy goals and enhancing UK economic competitiveness by providing crucial missing information on the dynamics and causes of radiation belt events. Realistic goals for the project will be the characterisation of all waves that contribute to radiation belt dynamics, crucial inputs into predictive radiation belt dynamics models essential for prediction of low frequency, high consequence events such as the Carrington storm of 1859 and the Halloween storms in October-November 2003. The research and professional skills that the PDRA will develop during this project will be in computational programming, the processing large datasets and clear scientific reasoning, which are all applicable to many employment sectors.
People |
ORCID iD |
Jonathan Rae (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Ozeke L
(2014)
Modeling cross L shell impacts of magnetopause shadowing and ULF wave radial diffusion in the Van Allen belts
in Geophysical Research Letters
Ozeke LG
(2014)
Analytic expressions for ULF wave radiation belt radial diffusion coefficients.
in Journal of geophysical research. Space physics
Pokhotelov D
(2016)
Effects of ULF wave power on relativistic radiation belt electrons: 8-9 October 2012 geomagnetic storm
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Pokhotelov D
(2015)
The influence of solar wind variability on magnetospheric ULF wave power
in Annales Geophysicae
Rae I
(2014)
Field line resonances as a trigger and a tracer for substorm onset
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Rae I
(2016)
Low-Frequency Waves in Space Plasmas
Van De Kamp M
(2014)
TID characterised using joint effort of incoherent scatter radar and GPS
in Annales Geophysicae
Yao Z
(2016)
Substructures within a dipolarization front revealed by high-temporal resolution Cluster observations
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Yao Z
(2017)
A direct examination of the dynamics of dipolarization fronts using MMS
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Yao Z
(2017)
An explanation of auroral intensification during the substorm expansion phase
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Description | significant new knowledge generated. The PI has recently submitted two papers to Nature Physics and Nature Geosciences detailing new key results in this research area based upon the support of this grant, opening up new questions and answering them. It is expected that both will be published in these two high-impact scientific journals. Network and collaborations occurred both nationally with the Met Office and a spin-out NERC grant to support understanding the effects of radiation environment on ground-sector infrastructure, and internationally, with collaborative meetings with the US Air Force European Office. |
Exploitation Route | Research outcomes have already rendered a new pathway to understanding the radiation belt acceleration, generating two high-impact submissions to Nature Publishing Group that are expected to be accepted. Academic users are already implementing changes in their physics-based models that are a direct result of this research, driving forward the modelling of the radiation environment This research has also opened up new scientific mission ideas that are currently being discussed for submission to the European Space Agency, bringing new industrial collaborations to the UK if successful. Finally, assuming additional funding, this research will be used to generate some (non-academic) predictive capability for UK stakeholders to be able to use to assess the impact of space weather on near-Earth space and ground infrastructure. |
Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Transport |
Description | Discussions with the Met Office as to the provision of space weather forecasting based upon research foundation provided by this grant. |
First Year Of Impact | 2015 |
Sector | Other |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | public dialogue |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Description | AGU |
Amount | $1,000 (USD) |
Organisation | American Geophysical Union |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United States |
Start | 09/2014 |
End | 09/2014 |
Description | NERC Highlight Topic |
Amount | £3,000,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/P017185/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2017 |
End | 04/2021 |
Description | STFC Consolidated Grant |
Amount | £2,029,730 (GBP) |
Funding ID | ST/N000722/1 |
Organisation | Science and Technologies Facilities Council (STFC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2016 |
End | 03/2019 |
Description | Satellite Radiation Risk Forecasts (Sat-Risk) |
Amount | £355,387 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/V002554/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2020 |
End | 07/2020 |
Description | IRMann |
Organisation | University of Alberta |
Country | Canada |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Research Collaboration leading to 4 high impact scientific papers, including one Nature Communications and two Nature Physics |
Collaborator Contribution | Collaboration leading to 4 high impact scientific papers, including one Nature Communications and two Nature Physics |
Impact | Papers listed Grants submitted but not yet assessed |
Description | KR Murphy |
Organisation | National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) |
Department | Goddard Space Flight Center |
Country | United States |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | collaborative research |
Collaborator Contribution | collaborative research |
Impact | see publications |
Start Year | 2007 |
Description | Space Weather Public Dialogue Stakeholder Summit |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The purpose of the public dialogue is to inform the policy of both governments and companies in respect of space weather and the potential consequences on people and infrastructure. This has been done through a series of workshops over the summer with members of the public in urban and rural locations. The aim has been to develop and gauge public understanding of space weather and its impacts and scenarios for resilience (both civil society and individuals), and consider the roles and responsibilities of the Government, companies, communities and individuals to mitigate against and/or respond to space weather impacts The purpose of the Stakeholder Summit is to bring together representatives from Government, local authorities, academic institutions and corporations who all have an interest in space weather and its potential impacts. The morning will be spent discussing the outputs of the public dialogue and the afternoon will be used to explore actions and recommendations for the future. Develop a final report that will be circulated to all those who have been involved in the dialogue project and posted on the website. The project team and STFC will discuss how to keep members of public involved in the longer term. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |