Exploring low-carbon transition responses in the global oil industry

"Meeting the Paris Agreement goal of stabilising the global temperature rise to "well-below" 2C will require reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in the second half of this century. This means that the Oil & Gas industry must go through a deep transformation of their business models, including radical changes in their upstream and midstream processes and offset systems to compensate unavoidable carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. If some companies have already transitioned out of the petroleum products, most of the sector is just starting to wake up for the strategic challenges implied by this transition. Different mitigation strategies have been proposed, namely diversification of the core business models with large investments on renewable electricity, biogas, and advanced fuels for the transport sector, and compensation of unavoidable emissions with greenhouse gas removal technologies, mainly Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS). While these first attempts are needed to set up an initial basis for discussions, it is necessary to understand the implications of mitigation strategies in a resource-constrained world, i.e., limits on carbon sink capacity, availability of land, water, minerals, available finance, conflicts with ecosystem services, among others. Understanding to what extent mitigation strategies of the petroleum sector can be put into practice without conflicting with other sustainable development goals, creating methodologies and tools to understands the cross-cutting impacts of the different strategies, including financial and social indicators (CAPEX, OPEX, return on equity, etc.) will be of extreme importance.
This research will build on existing modelling frameworks developed by CDP's global work for the Oil & Gas sector. This includes the development of an analytical framework based on the science-based target methodology for the sector and frameworks that assess the ambitious of the sector in terms of investments, risk management, and GHG emissions. If successful, this research proposal will: 1) Compare the petroleum sector transition plans against the mitigation targets required to reach the Paris Agreement goal, identifying challenges on their practical implementation from a resource constraint and financial perspective; 2) Develop methodologies and analytical tools to assess the viability of those strategies in the light of other sustainable development goals beyond GHG mitigation; 3) Engage in dialogues with Oil & Gas representatives and trade associations in discussing their transition strategies; 4) Engage in Carbon Disclosure Project's (CDP) Technical Working Groups working on the science/based target setting and assessing low-carbon transition methodologies.
This proposal will lead to an improved understanding of the accurate mitigation potentials of the Oil & Gas industry and the limitations within the planetary boundaries and conflicts with other sustainable development goals.
The student should have strong interests in modelling work and sustainable development. This proposal requires a combination of quantitative and qualitative skills. It is anticipated that the student will spend at least 3 months at CDP London and/or other relevant offices. "