Armed conflict and family formation dynamics in post-Soviet world
Lead Research Organisation:
London School of Economics & Pol Sci
Department Name: Social Policy
Abstract
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People |
ORCID iD |
| Arjan Gjonca (Primary Supervisor) | |
| Orsola Torrisi (Student) |
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES/J500070/1 | 30/09/2011 | 01/10/2021 | |||
| 1782153 | Studentship | ES/J500070/1 | 21/09/2016 | 30/12/2021 | Orsola Torrisi |
| NE/W502893/1 | 30/04/2021 | 29/04/2022 | |||
| 1782153 | Studentship | NE/W502893/1 | 21/09/2016 | 30/12/2021 | Orsola Torrisi |
| Description | The first paper of this thesis provides the first detailed account of fertility trends and patterns in Azerbaijan since independence from the Soviet Union and explores them in relation to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. My findings offer evidence of substantial period fertility decline, triggered primarily via family size limitation. However, I next show that women who have been affected by conflict violence - whether through forced displacement or because of residence in the conflict-torn Karabakh region - show considerably higher probability of having a second birth than not-exposed women. Never-migrant women from Karabakh also transition sooner to have a first birth. Additional positive associations with fertility, possibly explained by replacement and insurance effects, are observed following child loss during peak conflict years. By complementing and expanding existing demographic research on post-Soviet fertility changes, which has been thus far scant in the Caucasus region and has widely neglected the role of still ongoing armed conflict, I believe this first part is highly relevant for reproductive and health policy targeting vulnerable women. n the second section of my thesis, I explore changes in nuptiality in the Caucasus region and link them to armed conflicts. Findings suggest that in all countries of the region, the rate of first marriages substantially declined in the post-independence period. In Armenia and Georgia, the decrease was primarily effected via lowering rates among adolescents. Here, the declining trend continued in the new century, albeit at a slower pace, and was accompanied by mild increases in age at marriage. This suggests incipient modernisation of marriage behaviour. By contrast, in Azerbaijan, the post-independence decrease in unions occurred at all ages, especially in years marked by the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. This decline appears to have halted and reversed with the start of the new millennium: since 2000, first marriage rates have steadily increased - for young adult women in particular - accompanied by some declines in female age at marriage and continuing universal transition to marriage. Second, exploiting the peculiarities of Azerbaijan's marriage trajectories and its unsolved conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, I show that women who were exposed to armed conflict - whether in the form of forced migration or because of residence in the conflict-torn Karabakh region - when reaching marriage age were less likely to enter into union at any given time than exposed women belonging to cohorts that attained marriage age before the key conflict years, and than women of the same cohorts, who were though not directly exposed to conflict violence. Additional analyses reveal that lower probabilities of entering union were essentially associated with the cohort that reached marriage age towards the end of the peak conflict hostilities and with forcibly displaced. Forced migration and long-term conflict exposure during childhood appear as possible mechanisms explaining the postponement of unions. |
| Exploitation Route | This research is the first to explore fertility, marriage and family formation dynamics more broadly in the South Caucasus and to explore their relationship with armed conflict in the region. The relevance of the outcomes is both theoretical as it can serve as a starting point to future researchers interested in the region, and practical. Besides feeding the theoretical debate on the mechanisms linking conflict, marriage and fertility, the findings also concern policy-makers: for instance, in a context where fertility has been oscillating around the replacement level, if households more affected by violence are also at a less advanced stage in the fertility transition, ceteris paribus, their size and number relative to less-exposed is going to increase with time, and their needs are going to become increasingly pressing. |
| Sectors | Healthcare Government Democracy and Justice Other |