The association between symptoms, activity tracking and weather conditions in patients with arthritis and other chronic pain
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Manchester
Department Name: School of Biological Sciences
Abstract
For centuries, it has been speculated that there is an association between the weather and joint pain. However, data quality issues have left researchers as yet unable to reach any definite conclusions. Cloudy with a Chance of Pain is a major new project funded by Arthritis Research UK that will exploit the widespread uptake of smartphones to gather regular, high quality data on patient symptoms, physical activity and weather conditions and investigate the relationships between them in patients with arthritis and other chronic pain.
This PhD project will use data from the Cloudy with a Chance of Pain study to:
1. Develop and test a statistical model for forecasting pain in patients with arthritis based on weather conditions
2. Investigate the association between passively-monitored physical activity levels and patient-reported symptoms
In years 1 and 2 will include training in epidemiology, biostatistics, statistical computing and prediction modelling. Literature review on weather and symptoms in patients with arthritis, with a focus on analytical methodology, as well as review of epidemiological models of short-term effects of environmental exposures on health. Longitudinal analysis of association between local weather conditions obtained via smartphone GPS location and patient symptom data entered via a smartphone app. Development of a prediction model for pain based on the weather ("pain forecast").
Year 2 and 3 will include obtaining, cleaning and preparing physical activity data from linked activity monitors and determine measures best suited for analysis. Longitudinal analysis of activity measures and symptom data.
A prediction model for future joint pain based on weather forecasts would allow patients to plan their activities. An understanding of the association between passively monitored physical activity and disease severity would allow development of a novel outcome measure for use in clinical care and research.
This PhD project will use data from the Cloudy with a Chance of Pain study to:
1. Develop and test a statistical model for forecasting pain in patients with arthritis based on weather conditions
2. Investigate the association between passively-monitored physical activity levels and patient-reported symptoms
In years 1 and 2 will include training in epidemiology, biostatistics, statistical computing and prediction modelling. Literature review on weather and symptoms in patients with arthritis, with a focus on analytical methodology, as well as review of epidemiological models of short-term effects of environmental exposures on health. Longitudinal analysis of association between local weather conditions obtained via smartphone GPS location and patient symptom data entered via a smartphone app. Development of a prediction model for pain based on the weather ("pain forecast").
Year 2 and 3 will include obtaining, cleaning and preparing physical activity data from linked activity monitors and determine measures best suited for analysis. Longitudinal analysis of activity measures and symptom data.
A prediction model for future joint pain based on weather forecasts would allow patients to plan their activities. An understanding of the association between passively monitored physical activity and disease severity would allow development of a novel outcome measure for use in clinical care and research.
Organisations
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MR/N013751/1 | 01/10/2016 | 30/09/2025 | |||
| 1789944 | Studentship | MR/N013751/1 | 01/10/2016 | 31/03/2020 | Anna Beukenhorst |
| Title | Crowdsourced public engagement video campaign to share the experiences of people with chronic pain |
| Description | Anna has been similarly enthusiastic as well as creative in her public engagement activities. She obtained a grant for a public engagement project to align with and promote the study results: this included developing a video campaign in which participants shared their experiences of living with chronic pain and participating in the study. |
| Type Of Art | Film/Video/Animation |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Impact | Supported by Versus Arthritis, the videos were watched hundreds of times via social media and sparked online debate (see here). |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkCZoqnd_r60pgxSnWMqvNQ |
| Description | EFMI Bursary Informatics for Health |
| Amount | £378 (GBP) |
| Organisation | European Federation of Medical Informatics |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | Switzerland |
| Start | 04/2017 |
| End | 04/2017 |
| Description | Institutional Strategic Support Funding - Public Engagement Grant - Emerging Engagement |
| Amount | £500 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Wellcome Trust |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2019 |
| End | 12/2019 |
| Description | St. Gallen Wings of Excellence Award |
| Amount | SFr. 1,000 (CHF) |
| Organisation | University of St. Gallen |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | Switzerland |
| Start | 05/2018 |
| End | 05/2018 |
| Description | The association between symptoms, activity tracking and weather conditions in patients with arthritis and other chronic pain |
| Amount | £51,720 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | 1789944 |
| Organisation | Medical Research Council (MRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 10/2016 |
| End | 03/2020 |
| Description | Travel Bursary Fund |
| Amount | £2,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | University of Manchester |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 08/2017 |
| End | 08/2017 |
| Description | Travel Grant |
| Amount | € 350 (EUR) |
| Organisation | The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) |
| Sector | Private |
| Country | Switzerland |
| Start | 07/2018 |
| End | 07/2018 |
| Description | 3 Minute Thesis |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Three Minute Thesis Competition where I presented my research in 3 minutes and the audience learned about the potential of mobile health |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://threeminutethesis.uq.edu.au/ |
| Description | America's Morning Headquarters (tv show) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Television interview for America's Morning Headquarters, broadcast in the whole United States |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTEUWCd1qko |
| Description | Arthritis Research UK Charity Funders |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Supporters |
| Results and Impact | This talk sparked a discussion with charitable funders about the work Arthritis Research UK does and how funding benefits groundbreaking research |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | BBC News (radio) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Radio interview broadcast on BBC News, on all BBC radio stations in the North of England |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | BBC Weather Show (radio) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Fifteen minute interview with Paul Hudson of the BBC Weather show, together with my supervisor David Schultz |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://twitter.com/EloquentScience/status/1197180647351234566 |
| Description | Bluedot Festival - #DataSavesLives |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Festival-goers and their children gave their opinion on sharing data for medical research and other purposes. They learned about the electronic medical health record, advantages and disadvantages of data sharing. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | https://www.connectedhealthcities.org/2017/07/datasaveslives-goes-intergalactic-jodrell-banks-bluedo... |
| Description | Bright Club - Stand-up comedy about research |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | At Bright Club I did a stand-up comedy set about Cloudy with a Chance of Pain and statistics. People reported that they suddenly understood the statistics (specifically the case-crossover design) behind Cloudy with a Chance of Painn |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | International Women's Day 2019: Celebrating the future of health data research |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Interview to convince more women to pursue careers in healthcare informatics. Because of the medium it is difficult to measure how it influenced readers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.herc.ac.uk/2019/03/08/international-womens-day-2019-celebrating-future-health-data-resea... |
| Description | Keynotes at various universities |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | 01/11/2016 Data Science Club UoM Cloudy with a Chance of Pain 01/11/2017 PDS in the Pub UoM Data science in healthcare: improving doctors' best guess with Facebook and smart watches 20/03/2017 Staticians' meeting CfE R intro 08/05/2017 3 minutes thesis pitch Dep. Seminar Koalap 16/05/2017 PGR conference BMH Androids vs iPhones 25/09/2017 Introduction MRC PhD students UoM Life as a PhD student 09/10/2017 Monday seminar department UoM Cloudy with a Chance of Pain 20/11/2017 Departments' Statistician meeting UoM Cloudy with a Chance of Pain 25/04/2017 Science Slam Presentation Prize (2nd) BCS/Informatics for Health Conference Why everybody should become a data scientist 8min 27/04/2017 Panel Member & presentation NorthWest Biotech Initiative Cloudy with a Chance of Pain 2h 03/05/2017 Zooniverse seminar Oxford University Using smartphones for epidemiological research 1h 15/05/2017 Pint of Science Pint of Science/in the pub Cloudy with a Chance of Pain 20min 09/06/2017 Clinical Genomics Analysis Symposium IBM Healthcare Haifa Analysis challenges when using smartphones for epidemiological research 20min 18/07/2017 Behavioural Signal Processing Birmingham University Knee Osteoarthritis: Linking Activity And Pain 20min 21/08/2017 Medinfo 2017 IMIA/MI China Using smartphones for research outside clinical settings 15min 09/10/2017 Monday seminar ARUK CfE 1h 02/11/2017 Presentation to ARUK funders Arthritis Research UK Cloudy with a Chance of Pain 1h 20/11/2017 Statisticians' meeting ARUK CfE Cloudy with a Chance of Pain 1h 17/02/2018 National Undergraduate Conference 2018 MMRSSoc Cloudy with a Chance of Pain 1h 24/04/2018 consumer smartwatches for collecting self-report and sensor data: app design and feasibility MIE2018 Oral presentation 15min 24/04/2018 How to convert sensor data from wearables into clinically meaningful information? MIE2019 Workshop 1h 13/06/2018 EULAR2018 EULAR2018 The prevalence of pain flares: impact of definition. 10min 01/06/2018 3 Minute Thesis UoM 3min 11/07/2018 Health Data Mining seminar Health eResearch Centre Cloudy with a Chance of Pain 1h 29/08/2018 Poster presentation Behavioural Signal Processing workshop KOALAP 07/09/2018 3 minute presentation UK-Rime KOALAP 3min 05/10/2018 Seminar on Applied Epidemiology / mHealth studies ARUK CfE 2h |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016,2017,2018 |
| Description | Museum of Science and Industry - Showcase |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Hundreds of children and their adults attended this showcase and learned about living with arthritis and chronic pain. There where many requests for further information |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018 |
| Description | PhD study at Manchester: Anna Beukenhorst, MRC DTP studentship |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Current MRC DTP students mentioned that they had seen my video, which had contributed to them applying for this fantastic programme. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtoRom8zMnk |
| Description | Pint of Science |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | - Talk about research project in a Manchester Pub |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | https://pintofscience.co.uk/event/technology-that-has-your-back |
| Description | Press release about launch smartwatch study |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Blog on launch of novel smartwatch study Generated attention on Twitter |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.herc.ac.uk/2019/01/24/worlds-first-study-cellular-smartwatches-healthcare/ |
| Description | University of Manchester Alumni Event |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Alumni of the University of Manchester that came to a talk on Cloudy with a Chance of Pain interacted with the data via giant touchscreens (under my supervision) and could see how weather influences pain. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZrqOAlJwYo |
| Description | Weekend Recharge (tv) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Television interview on the popular US tv The Weather Channel to raise awareness of our study outcomes and musculoskeletal conditioins |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUL7fB5WzpQ |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The video has > 500 views on Youtube and hopefully increases support for university research. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUL7fB5WzpQ |