Cost effectiveness of poultry vaccination for control of H9N2 avian influenza in Pakistan
Lead Research Organisation:
Royal Veterinary College
Department Name: Production and Population Health
Abstract
H9N2 is endemic in poultry in Pakistan and for the last 16 years vaccines have been employed to reduce production losses. The virus remains endemic and vaccination programmes face numerous technical challenges, including optimal vaccine virus strain selection to accommodate the diversity of co-circulating virus variants, and strategic questions regarding risk-based targeted vaccination where disease is more prevalent.
This PhD research project companion the ZELS research programme between UK, Vietnam and Pakistan (http://combating-avian-influenza.com/) will address ongoing needs for systematic antigenic matching of H9N2 vaccine formulations to field variants, and design of novel H9N2 viral vectored vaccines and diagnostics. The proposed PhD project will build on this framework to investigate the complex socio-economic factors that contribute to the success or failure of vaccine interventions.
The project will develop models on AIV vaccine use and the scale and frequency of disease outbreaks inflecting overall economic losses in poultry production in Pakistan. The outcome of this research project will help to develop disease control strategies for sustainable growth of poultry production. Reduction in disease-related loses will directly improve socio-economic wellbeing of poultry farming communities.
The project will be conducted within the larger framework of a Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems (ZELS) project, which aims to develop novel H5 and H9 influenza vaccines tailored to the circulating variants in Vietnam and Pakistan.
This PhD research project companion the ZELS research programme between UK, Vietnam and Pakistan (http://combating-avian-influenza.com/) will address ongoing needs for systematic antigenic matching of H9N2 vaccine formulations to field variants, and design of novel H9N2 viral vectored vaccines and diagnostics. The proposed PhD project will build on this framework to investigate the complex socio-economic factors that contribute to the success or failure of vaccine interventions.
The project will develop models on AIV vaccine use and the scale and frequency of disease outbreaks inflecting overall economic losses in poultry production in Pakistan. The outcome of this research project will help to develop disease control strategies for sustainable growth of poultry production. Reduction in disease-related loses will directly improve socio-economic wellbeing of poultry farming communities.
The project will be conducted within the larger framework of a Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems (ZELS) project, which aims to develop novel H5 and H9 influenza vaccines tailored to the circulating variants in Vietnam and Pakistan.
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB/N503563/1 | 01/10/2015 | 30/09/2019 | |||
| 1815378 | Studentship | BB/N503563/1 | 01/11/2016 | 30/09/2019 | Hassaan Bin Aslam |
| Description | Technical skills : In form of qualitative and quantitative data collection along with their analysis using software like NVivo and R. Designing survey questionnaires and using Open Data Kit software for quantitative data collection. Transferable skills: Developed efficient presentation skills by attending various conferences and annual meetings. Findings: A trend towards integrated farming from independent farming was found. Poultry production industry is dependent on public and private sector for health related services. However, public sector is more involved in passive surveillance and private for vaccinations and diagnostics. Communication gap between public and private sector was evident. Involvement of middlemen in various systems renders threat to price instability and sustainability of poultry farming business. Avian influenza (H9N2) was found to be highly prevalent among poultry sector despite of regular vaccination in layers and occasionally in broilers. However, practising H9N2 vaccination regular in broilers was found to be cost effective as compared to no vaccination. Disposal of dead birds included dumping on land fills and water bodies along with routine burning and burying. It should be regulated to mitigate hot spots of viral transmission and environmental pollution. |
| Exploitation Route | Policies could be made to bridge the gaps between various stakeholders for the efficient flow of information to contain AI infection successfully. Models developed (after making it user-friendly) in this project will serve as a decision making tool for the farmer to decide the best and most cost-effective approaches to control disease and rear chickens. Efforts are being made to make models simple and user-friendly to be used by agriculture farmers. The potential barriers identified in the uptake of disease control measures will be efficiently communicated to the stakeholders and policymakers so that they could be addressed them well before time for the successful control of diseases. |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Description | The findings have been used to understand and estimate the economic impact of other diseases to make efficient disease control policies in Pakistan. The key findings discussed with stakeholders sparked up the discussion to increase the fundings towards projects that cover social as well as economic issues related to infectious diseases in the animal health sector. |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Education |
| Impact Types | Societal,Economic,Policy & public services |
| Description | Using disease control interventions |
| Geographic Reach | Asia |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Farmers have realized the importance of disease control intervention even if the disease is endemic with less pathogenecity. The results presented to the farmers were robust enough to encourage and motivate them to use vaccination for avian influenza control. |
| Description | Cost effectiveness of poultry vaccination for control of H9N2 avian influenza in Pakistan |
| Amount | £50,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | 1815378 |
| Organisation | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 11/2016 |
| End | 09/2019 |
| Title | Mapping of production systems |
| Description | Production system mapping of commercial broiler and layer farming, entailing the flows of various actors and stakeholders involved in. Mapping of avian influenza reporting system in the country. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | The mapping created a ground to understand the production systems for designing mathematical tools for economic impact assessment. Once published, it will help to target potential stakeholders identified in this project for policy revising and successful application of control interventions in future. |
| Title | Questionnaire development |
| Description | Development of comprehensive questionnaire for the data collection on farm and farmer's profiles, economic parameters, disease prevalence and impacts of AI in poultry farming. This questionnaire also contains questions to collect information from farm level decision makers about human behaviours against AI and its control measures and quantification of various barriers in the uptake on control measures against AI. Initiated the use of electronic questionnaire in animal health sector in Pakistan for the current project and discussed with colleagues at the university of veterinary and animal sciences Lahore Pakistan about the efficiency of electronic data collection. Models for economic impact assessment of avian influenza and its vaccinations. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | This questionnaire will provide information that will help to quantify the impact of avian influenza under various poultry production systems. Which could be used for other poultry diseases as well with minor modifications. The information provided by questionnaire gives in depth understanding of farmers perceptions about disease risks and impacts and highlighting their affect on their intentions to vaccinate. Farm level data on chicken production, disease, economic and human behaviour parameters have been collected from 274 farms. This comprehensive data set provide enough information to build a case for country level impact assessment of H9N2 avian influenza and to highlight. Models developed as a part of this project with give a decision making tool to farmer to opt most cost-efficient farming practices for them |
| Title | Tools for impact assessment of avian influenza |
| Description | Development of mathematical tools for economic impact assessment of disease and various vaccine available for its control. Mathematical description of various events happening during one production cycle with and without disease, and quantification of efficiency of vaccination against AI. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | Giving farmers a decision making tool to adopt best farming practices. Highlighting major difference in terms of farm disease prevalence and economics among various production systems could help policy makers to target potential systems for disease control and management. |
| Title | Data collection |
| Description | Open Data Kit (ODK) based survey for data collection |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | Open Data Kit (ODK) based survey replaces conventional paper based data collection methods. It gives an opportunity to save and store data on various devices and real time submission of forms in to server. The submitted forms could be downloaded in excel that by passes tiresome exercises of putting in data which could also create researcher based biasness and mistakes. Hiring enumerators and training them on how to use ODK and questionnaire created a form of capacity building in country like Pakistan. Where there is high potential for using such software. |
| Title | Models for economic efficiency of vaccicnes used against avian influenza |
| Description | Five models in total (two for layers and three for broilers) have been designed for commercial chicken production systems in Pakistan. They have been tested, run and informed by the primary data collected in 2019. The models simulated broiler and layer farming for one complete production cycle while giving quantitative outputs (income) and their variation due to disease and vaccination. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | If possible after making these models user friendly they could be given to chicken farming community in Pakistan to apply and use. which could help farmer in making rational choices regarding farm-level decisions. These models could be modified for country level economic impact assessment of poultry diseases. The approach used for modelling could act as a role model for other LMICs for economic impact assessment of animal diseases. |
| Title | Models simulating chicken (broiler/layer) production in vitro |
| Description | A production and disease model was developed that simulated a complete production cycle in-vitro. Moreover, the model also handled the cascade effects of a disease outbreak in the production system |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2020 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | Once available online the models could be used by anyone interested in understanding the various stages in chicken production and how different chicken diseases could have impacts on production. |
| Title | Qualitative anlysis |
| Description | Qualitative analysis of data using NVivo (QRS) software for data coding and development of detailed diagrams of various pathways involved in supply and distribution of inputs and finished products in poultry production. |
| Type Of Material | Data handling & control |
| Year Produced | 2018 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | Qualitative analysis gives in depth and detailed understandings of poultry production system. However, the quantitative approaches will be more focused and confined to few aspects. The qualitative study created ground for further analysis of my project using mixed method approach. The use of NVivo by passes conventional methods of managements of data and codes in excel or on paper which is more time saving and flexible to use. |
| Description | Partnerships and collaborations under ZELS_AI |
| Organisation | The Pirbright Institute |
| Department | Avian viral Diseases |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Contributions in form of networking, capacity building of people involved with the project. Technical contributions in form of tools development for modelling the impact of avian diseases. |
| Collaborator Contribution | All the financial support was provided by the Pirbright Institute while the logistic support was totally managed by RVC. Moreover, University of veterinary and animal sciences Lahore, Pakistan also contributed in making ground for field data collection from the farmers and veterinarians involved in poultry production. |
| Impact | Multidisciplinary collaboration: Molecular virology and vaccine production of avian influenza virus Social sciences: Assessment of the socio-economic impact of AI Determination of human behaviours regarding disease control interventions Generation of big data sets refelecting the poultry production in Pakistan. Generating detailed maps for the identification and understanding of chicken production systems in Pakistan. |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Conference presentation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | The presentation was given at ISESSAH conference, Denmark (November 2020) with loads of appreciation received by the audience especially the FAO regional head (Asia Pacific Region) that highlightd the significance of current research in filling a major gap in Asia. Moreover, they are also looking forward to the full working paper on the impact of H9N2 AI in Pakistan. A copy of the presentation was also shared with them |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Engagement activities |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | ZELS One Health Symposium Networking and cross talks with early career professionals working under one health and interdisciplinary umbrella, followed by poster presentations and discussion. Flash talk and poster presentation during 11th European congress on tropical medicine and international health, September 2020, Liverpool. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018,2019 |
| Description | Focus group discussions, Meeting with poultry stakeholders in Pakistan |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Discussion of key research findings with poultry stakeholders, professionals at various research institutions in Pakistan. Discussions of approaches used to accomplish the objectives of the projects. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2019,2021 |
| Description | IFSTAL workshops at Oxford |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Workshop with various activities like team working, development of leadership qualities and discussion with people working in law, food industry, environment under the umbrella of safe and sustainable food systems. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | PhD away day at LIDC |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Brief introduction of work and getting inputs for future placements and funding in relation to the type of work I am doing. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | University level talk and discussion |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | A case story was written on the importance of poultry production in Pakistan and how various approaches were used to characterise the second largest industry of Pakistan. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.pirbright.ac.uk/news/2020/07/science-spotlight-hassaan-bin-aslam |
| Description | ZELS annual meetings, postgraduate days. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | ZELS student cohort and grant holders workshop attended with purpose to discuss project beyond my close research group. Getting inputs from my funders and academia fro rest of UK. Outcomes: Networking Development of technical and transferable skills Insight in to policy making steps |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018,2019 |