Modelling interactions between respiratory viruses

Respiratory viruses including influenza and RSV infect a large proportion of the population each year, resulting in many GP visits, hospital admissions, and deaths. These can be particularly serious in young children. In order to persist in the population, viruses must infect hosts, which can be hindered by host defence mechanisms.

Immune protection can occur through recent infection with antigenically similar viruses or, alternatively, by other infections that activate broad cross-species immune responses. Investigation of the mechanisms of immune stimulation and of viral cross-protection, may elucidate specific viral subtypes or pathways of pathogenesis in mild or severe disease.

This project will involve the analysis of data for respiratory infections to identify virus interactions with other viruses and their immunity. Further, dynamic models to test likely interaction mechanisms will be created and tested, in order to predict the effect of vaccination or therapy on viral ecology. The project falls into two main MRC LID Research Themes: Global Infectious disease and quantitative skills for large data sets.

Skills will be developed in infectious disease modelling, analysing surveillance data, and fitting models to data. In addition scientific writing and critical reading of literature will be developed throughout the project. This is in line with the MRC skill priorities of Quantitative and interdisciplinary skills.

Key words: respiratory viruses, mathematical modelling, immunity, influenza, RSV, immune response, viral competition, viral interaction