Mathematical modelling to enhance preparedness for emergence of midge-borne viruses in the UK
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Nottingham
Department Name: School of Veterinary Medicine and Sci
Abstract
The European equine population is increasingly threatened by emerging viruses. Notable amongst these is African horse sickness virus (AHSV), which is transmitted by biting midges. Recent outbreaks of the closely-related bluetongue virus (BTV) illustrate the potential for future incursion of AHSV, with far-reaching impacts. Similarly, Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was unknown until it emerged in European livestock in 2011; both BTV and SBV are thought to have reached the UK as a result of infected midges being blown across the English Channel. The aim of this project is to enhance preparedness for emergence of AHSV in the UK.
Mathematical models to assess the risk of introduction and spread of AHSV will be developed using existing knowledge of the transmission and spread of this virus, as well as novel information on the demographics of the equine population in the UK and identity of midges trapped in close proximity to dense equine populations. The AHSV model will be based on an existing model for the spread of BTV. Model development will include a sensitivity analysis of model parameters to assess the uncertainty of model predictions, because there is sparser information available about the demographics of the equine population than about the population of farm animals affected by BTV. When the model has been parameterised for AHSV, it will be used to estimate the scale of possible AHSV outbreaks and the potential for this virus to persist in the UK. The model will also be used to test the relative effectiveness of different control options (including vaccines, vector control, insect repellents, housing, decoys, equine culling and movement restrictions).
Mathematical models to assess the risk of introduction and spread of AHSV will be developed using existing knowledge of the transmission and spread of this virus, as well as novel information on the demographics of the equine population in the UK and identity of midges trapped in close proximity to dense equine populations. The AHSV model will be based on an existing model for the spread of BTV. Model development will include a sensitivity analysis of model parameters to assess the uncertainty of model predictions, because there is sparser information available about the demographics of the equine population than about the population of farm animals affected by BTV. When the model has been parameterised for AHSV, it will be used to estimate the scale of possible AHSV outbreaks and the potential for this virus to persist in the UK. The model will also be used to test the relative effectiveness of different control options (including vaccines, vector control, insect repellents, housing, decoys, equine culling and movement restrictions).
People |
ORCID iD |
| Zoe Wilson (Primary Supervisor) | |
| Janet Daly (Primary Supervisor) |
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB/M008770/1 | 01/10/2015 | 31/10/2024 | |||
| 1944283 | Studentship | BB/M008770/1 | 01/10/2017 | 30/09/2021 |
| Description | Sage teach-in: covid-19 in UK universities |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/isaac-newton-institute-covid-19-and-universities-13-janua... |
| Description | Beaufort Cottage Educational Trust Veterinary Summer Scholarship |
| Amount | £2,500 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Beaufort Cottage Educational Trust |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 08/2019 |
| End | 09/2019 |
| Description | African horse sickness Morocco model |
| Organisation | University of Liverpool |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Designing the model Fitting the model Publishing results Communicating results to policy makers |
| Collaborator Contribution | Providing data Designing the model Fitting the model |
| Impact | multi-disciplinary: mathematics, statistics and epidemiology |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Description | Covid-19 in UK universities |
| Organisation | Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Analysed and modelled data from university. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Organised weekly zoom meeting Higher Education working group at the Isaac Newton Institute, communicated with SPI-M and SAGE and future payment of publication fee. |
| Impact | Pre-print, sage teach-in, and Science media centre briefing |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Modelling life-cycles of UK midges |
| Organisation | The Pirbright Institute |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Designed model for midge life-cycle |
| Collaborator Contribution | Training on how to identify midge species and the stage of their life-cycle. Training in mosquito identification |
| Impact | multi-disciplinary: mathematics, statistics, entomology and microscopy |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling to Inform Policy-Making Course |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I attended the course. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Envision and STARS Infohackit 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | I attended the 2 day workshop |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Epidemics7 - International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | I attended the 4 day conference |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Erice MathCompEpi2018 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I attended the 8 day conference and gave an oral presentation entitled Mathematical modelling to enhance preparedness for the emergence of midge-borne diseases in the UK. Many questions and advise was given for future work |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Knowledge Transfer Network and the International Centre for Mathematical Sciences Agri-Food Study Group |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Study group were industries could ask for help with research related questions. Participants chose one of three topics they were interested in. Many interesting questions were asked and the industry seemed happy with the progress made. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Magazine artical in the Mathmatics Today Pandemics special issue |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | A magazine article focusing on mathematical modelling of SARS-CoV-2 in UK universities. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | MathBioFest2018 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I attended the symposium event and discussed presentations with fellow researchers |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Midlands3Cities Doctoral Training Partnership Public Policy Engagement Workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Policy makers discussed how we could get involved with influencing policy makers decisions. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Nottingham Graduate School Research Celebration Evening |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I had a poster and discussed my research with the general public. This generated lots of interesting conversations and interest from the general public attending the event. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Poster presentaion at SMB 2020 Annual Meeting |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Poster presentation on modelling systematic review for AHSV model parameters |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://smb2020.org/ |
| Description | Poster presentation Epidemics 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Poster presentation of methods developed for fitting spatio-temporal model of the transmission of African horse sickness virus in Morocco. Was listed as a 'top-rated' poster. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Poster presentation Epidemics 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Poster presentation on re-parameterising a model for African horse sickness virus |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021 |
| Description | Presentation at Vector-Borne Diseases in the UK conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Presentation on modelling AHSV in Morocco |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | School Outreach Activity |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | A group of school children ages 14-16 participated in a virus workshop. Here we discussed some key ideas in the field and how media and policy makers often misunderstand epidemics. After this we discussed future science careers and the students seemed very interested. The school teachers said they liked the event and would be interested in doing it again. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Seminar for the JUNIPER (Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research) consortium |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Seminar on the use for Bayesian models to determine the best definition of a contact for setting-dependent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in UK universities. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | The Association for Veterinary Teaching and Research Work Conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I attended the two day conference and gave a poster and short oral presentation entitled Mathematical modelling to enhance preparedness for the emergence of midge-borne diseases. This sparked conversations with policy-makers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Vector-Borne Diseases in the UK 2018 conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I gave a poster presentation and attended the 2 day conference. This sparked multiple discussions with other researchers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Visit to The Pirbright Institute |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I visited The Pirbright Institute for training and collaboration planning for 2 days. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Visit to The University of Georgia |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I visited The University of Georgia for 8 days to discuss my work with research staff. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | data Science and Epidemic Models Summer School |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | I attended the 5 day summer school and gave a short oral presentation entitled Modelling to enhance preparedness for the emergence of vector-borne diseases. I also attended the statistics open discussion where I was asked many interesting questions about assessing parameter identifiability. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |