Infectious disease outbreaks as a consequence of disaster-related risk factors
Lead Research Organisation:
Imperial College London
Department Name: School of Public Health
Abstract
Despite several advances in hygiene, sanitation and mass vaccination campaigns, infectious disease outbreaks still cause significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, especially in low and middle-income countries. The likelihood of outbreaks occurring is affected by the vulnerability of the population and the risk factors they are exposed too. These risk factors have a variety of influences including climate, food, water and human behaviour. One such influence that has shown evidence for causing outbreaks is disasters (such as armed conflicts and natural hazards). Understanding why these disasters cause outbreaks and their associated risk factors are important to protect vulnerable populations, especially as the impact of how global change may alter the frequency and intensity of these disasters is largely unknown. This project aims to use both statistical and mathematical modelling techniques to understand how disease outbreaks are initiated and spread in these environments and how aspects of global change may alter them in the future. The results of the modelling will be used to develop disaster mitigation and adaptation techniques and understand how to priorities the health needs of these populations to avoid outbreaks.
Organisations
Studentship Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE/S007415/1 | 01/10/2019 | 30/09/2027 | |||
| 1953556 | Studentship | NE/S007415/1 | 01/10/2019 | 31/03/2023 | Georgina Charnley |
| Description | The key findings of the thesis are as follows: 1. There is a clear link between both droughts and conflict and cholera outbreaks in Africa 2. There are key risk factors that contribute to this, including displacement and water, sanitation and hygiene 3. The risk factor contribute to pre-existing vulnerability, which has a much bigger impact on the effect of the disaster, than the disaster itself. |
| Exploitation Route | The importance of sustainable development and allowing populations to prepare for and adapt to disaster and extreme conditions, giving people more agency to take care of their own health. Achieving targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals would have far-reaching impacts, making them cost effective interventions. |
| Sectors | Environment,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Description | I think the main non-academic impact found here is the clear need for sustainable development to mitigate risk factors. Achieving the development needed will move beyond the work of those in research and will depend upon the actions of governments and policy makers. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
| Sector | Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Title | Cholera epidemiological data for Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo |
| Description | I created a dataset providing freely available sub-national cholera data for Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The data has been scraped from a variety of English and French publicly available sources, including the World Health Organization, PubMed, UNICEF, EM-DAT, the Nigerian CDC and peer-reviewed literature. The data includes information on cases, deaths, age, gender, oral cholera vaccination, risk factors and interventions. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | I was asked by others working in cholera research if I could make this dataset publicly available. The dataset can facilitate qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods research in these two high burden countries to assist in public health planning. The data can also be used in collaboration with organisations in the host countries, which have also collected data or undertaking research. By making the data and methods available, we aim to simulate use and further data collection and compilation to help further bridge the data gaps for cholera in Africa. |
| URL | https://github.com/GinaCharnley/cholera_data_drc_nga |
| Title | Using the self-controlled case series (SCCS) to understand the impacts of conflict on cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo |
| Description | The SCCS method investigates the association between an exposure and an outcome event and has previously been used to test the effectiveness of drug and vaccine intervention on an individual and population level. We decided to adapt the methodology to investigate if exposure to conflict could alter the outcome event (a cholera outbreak). We proved the effectiveness of this method beyond its previous applications and made suggestions for how it can be used in the future. |
| Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | We have made the methods available in a pre-print server while the paper is undergoing peer-review and so can be used and cited in the meantime. We contacted those who originally developed the methodology to explain the work completed and to collaborate it making this methodology more robust and widely available. |
| URL | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.19.21265191v2 |
| Description | Online Article - Cholera in Ukraine: propagating disaster-disease myths |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | ~1000 article on the risks of cholera in Ukraine during the ongoing conflict. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://blogs.ucl.ac.uk/irdr/tag/cholera/ |
| Description | Online Article - Droughts create fertile ground for cholera. Plans are needed to face more dry periods |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The Conversation Africa reached out about writing an article for their website based on my recent review that was published investigating the impacts of droughts on cholera outbreaks in Africa. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://theconversation.com/droughts-create-fertile-ground-for-cholera-plans-are-needed-to-face-more... |